Member Info for ValueS

"Why Iran would not open Hormuz Strait"

Iran wants to evict the USA from the gulf region by destroying all its military bases, so that attacks can't happen in the future AND reparation for the damage to be paid by .....whoever! Until that happens the Strait of Hurmoz remains closed for US GCC alies whome Iran accuses of participating in the attack. I can't see that happening anytime soon.

Just like the orange buffoon, soon Mr. Market realises he's been deceived often enough!

"All the while the fundementals get better as it's another +$10m FCF for every day where oil and gas are at these levels."

And another c. 15m barrells of oil + the entire LNG production by Qatar is lost. Putting further upward pressure on their prices. If further structural damage caused by the ongoing war, this becomes permanent.

$300 oil on the cards? Until there is enough demand destruction to offset the shortage.

Best Regards ValueS

Https://youtu.be/B5xGPU1QWok?si=n_5zMzVLhKL4pYfB

One of the top comments in this video made just 2 weeks ago, but has 7.1 k likes and 172 replies, says:

" 34 years later and it sounds like it was from last night"

There was a 5 min auction today @ 10:10, I noticed. This usually happens when an II sells a large chunk of their holdings. Will there be another RNS next week?

Best Regards ValueS

They sold 9,245,006 shares. Now they hold 646,912,035 shares.

Yesterday's gap up is now closed. Will it try to close today's gap down, and finish nicely above 309?🤞🤌

It depends who the seller was, if for e.g. the seller was LLOG, then dumping 44m shares (if true 🤔), then they'll cross the 10% reporting threshold. Same thing applies for BASF, as they would cross the 40% threshold. Having said that, I searched the London Stock Exchange yesterday, and I could'nt find any such trade! Whether off-book or not. And there was an auction in the first 5 min took place and a reporting of a UT trade of c. 440 k @ 270p, shortly followed by some 50 k or less off-book trades around that price.

But it could have happenned on some other venue.

Best Regards ValueS

So, it was a person closely associated with the beloved chairman of HBR who decided to sell 60 m shares all of a sudden! Hmmm... I wonder why 🧐. Is he/she privy to inside info? Or has he/she suddenly died and the inheritors decided to sell the lot, pay inheritance tax and divide the rest? Anything posdible!

"had made a paper profit of 6 mil, not bad ey"

What? Just £6m?

£18 m possibly today with HBR = 285 p.

Possibly

I am not going to be too carried away! Because there is always the trucking option! And the rise of POO will pay for it. But an awfully large number of oil trucks are going to be needed. The GCCs should have invested in a half decent railway network though! They had all the time and money to do so.

@ThetaDecay, for the re-investing shareholder it does! The increase in % age holding is acheived by increasing the NUMBER of shares rather than the SIZE of each share. Consequently, such a shareholder receives MORE dividends without extra cost and thus enjoy a higher yeild.

Best Regards ValueS

"Buybacks are so much more tax efficient then paying a dividend which attracts a tax rate of around 40%"

@Sekforde , for those who hold their shares in an ISA or any other tax shelter (like me) this does not apply, apart from the stamp duty and trading cost. Otherwise, you are absolutely right.

Dividends ( or a portion of) can be converted to the equivalent buyback by re-investing it. Buybacks can be converted to dividends wholy or partially by selling the resulting increase in % age holding. So, they ARE convertible to each other. It is up to the shareholder to decide which way to go, put the return on the table or take it off.

Best Regards ValueS

With 20/20 hindsight vision, it turned out that the last buyback was perfectly timed and deliverred an excellent accretion of value. But now, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of POO touching $100 and consequently SP rise, the best policy is deleveraging. The cost of Equity now is far lower than the cost of debt especially after the dividend cut, buybacks do not make sense anymore under such conditions. Only after a significant reduction of debt (£2 B or more) and a significant rise in FCF then buyback becomes a better shareholder distribution option than dividend. IMO.

Best Regards ValueS

Https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bp-s-foreign-staff-evacuated-from-iraq-s-rumaila-oilfield-after-two-drones-landed-inside-the-field-ce7e5fdbd98bf026#google_vignette

"Strong Buy" @ 49.1p? Just yesterday.

@ 46 p today, is it a "Stronger Buy"?

"POO gotta rise."

According to Goldman Shachs, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another 5 weeks, Brent will be @ $100. May be more?

Today's dip in oil stocks (not just HBR), might be due to expectation of global recession I think. Or might be that DT said that he's going to provide escort for oil tankers going through the Strait. I wonder how is that going to play out!🙄

Best Regards ValueS

I am really strugling to understand why the shut-in in the first place!. The attacks are nowhere near the Shaikan oil field, they are far away to the south in Erbil and possibly Kirkuk, mainly targeting the military base not the Energy infra-structure.

Best Regards ValueS

Nortrust Nominees could be used by yet another investor, may be in the future? They hold funds for household names such as UBS, Barclays, etc... Acco