Member Info for Valuerebel

These placing shares are not going to flip for 10-20%. Having been in the previous placing there wasn't much traded until 100p, there was an air pocket to the upside. Given these two recent placings and the make of of who got what then these should be pretty tight for a while. Enjoy the upside as the news flow kicks in.

Oldfool13 you might be right but when the news becomes clearer the market may well be trading at 0.5p so will have missed out on a 67% gain..but that is the wonder of the AIM casino.

Good point Davethedumplin..makes sense..

Looks like Jennings has decreased his stake by over 50% in that latest TR1 dumping shares at low levels.

Obviously race doesn’t come into it but we don’t know yet what is going on with Grosvenor and why they couldn’t get the funding sorted. The Board must have felt they needed cash and this could have been done earlier at 0.7p not 0.3p. Why the delay? Mr Jennings please stand up . I researched Peregrine Asset Management Ltd (Jennings previous employment) last night. It sounds like a more famous name Peregrine Capital (proper outfit) but bears no relation and was dissolved in 2016 . 30 years of share experience apparently. He managed a few Northern retail accounts but his bio suggests Asset Management. Hardly Pimco, GSAM, Fidelity Asset management material.

Totally agree . Threw a fit and caused a lower placement price, now threatening to throw his toys out the pram. ALIGN Research philosophy :
"1/ We approach only those companies that we actually BELIEVE in. We don’t take all and sundry onto our books on the basis of preparedness to pay. Belief in the investment case is our sole criteria in selection.
2/ We actively look to take payment almost exclusively in the company’s equity or apply payment to purchasing the equity of the covered company. This of course ALIGNS us with both the company (existing shareholders and management) and new investors that act upon our research notes. If we are wrong in our analysis we suffer the same fate as the covered company's shareholders.
3/ We also propose “Conviction Sell” recommendations on certain companies where we feel the shares are a good short opportunity and, where applicable, openly disclose our position in such a candidate."
They don't mention that they cause price disruption to those same holders if they don't get their way..

Only 50k worth..not Align I doubt..

19M sold at 0.26 at 16:35.. oops//going to regret that one I think..

Someone's had enough

I bought another 5m this week as according you experts it's going up to 1p..

As at 31st Dec 2021 the company had £24k cash on its balance sheet so given the cash burn is running at close to 400k for 6 months then "we just need to wait more for Grosvenor to come up with the monies and we don't need another raise nor Align..." doesn't really fit into this scenario. Directors were funding the balance before the placing.

@Pedrobull ...As per the RNS on 15th July (see in box above "Live RNS") you need to vote FOR the resolutions proposed . HL can read the RNS and act on your instructions.

@DavidWK - 1/ I presume the Grosvenor deal is dead for the moment..they look like they didn't come up with the funding in time. They may return later on? 2/ If this new funding is rejected (low probability IMHO) then they still have to raise the cash and they may lose the smelter that has been independently valued by Insurers of £30m . 3/ With funding and board changes overhanging the SP why do you think people will want to invest at 1p given the recent share price? With luck it climbs back to 0.65 area and then they do a discounted placing but it will still be at a relatively low level. 4/ The company is only worth £30/40m with funding in place. the smelter purchased and getting close to production. Otherwise it won't be. You seem like you are arguing for a hopeful 1p transaction.

TP receives an additional 416,666,667 warrants at the placing price exercisable over 3 yrs. Presumably through 1.5p these would start to leak out into the market , making total shares 3,310,127,391 .

2,893,460,724 shares. I think price rebounds quickly post vote so say 0.45 would be £13mm MCAP to start. As they get closer to production then 0.75 looms £21.7m . Initial target 1.75p £50.6m. Potential 3.5p £101m.

I voted for the placing as I think the earlier noise stopped a placing at around 0.70 and now the SP has settled here then you must be on fairy dust to believe you will get a placing at 1p now. I think the MCAP should be at least £30-40mm so plenty of upside from here.

One other comparison for GCAT is a Brazilian miner producing 30koz/pa valued at £30m MCAP and today recommended as buy by Malcolm Stacey of SP. "A miner you may not have come across before is Serabi Gold (SRB). This lot operate producing mines in Brazil.In a trading update, the company has just said there’s ‘Strong improvement in production over the second quarter with 8,418 ounces recovered, an increase of 19% on the first quarter with a 12% improvement in processed gold grade. Year to date production of 15,480 ounces and annual production guidance maintained at 30,000 ounces’. Serabi’s share price was hit by covid. Production slowed because during the worst of the outbreak the company found it hard to obtain the necessary mining gear. Three years ago it was supplying 40,000 ounces a year, but happily production is now rising again.
It has two different sites. The Palito mine in the Tapajos region and the Coringa mine. At Palito, engineers have found the possibility of a big wodge of copper. And, as we’ve noted before in this modest column, copper is on a roll right now as it’s needed for the booming market in electronics. Serabi is growing its profits again, though there’s no dividend as yet.
In April the shares were as high as 59p. But they’ve eroded recently to below 40p. The firms’ big cheese said “We have seen a strong recovery in production from the Palito operations with 8,418 ounces produced, a 19% increase on the first quarter. Development at Coringa continues to progress extremely well. The underground mine development is advancing to plan and generating high grade ore that we are trucking to Palito’...
MCAP of £30m and "cheap" producing 30k oz versus MCAP of GCAT £14m producing 24k oz. Different Country but like for like puts GCAT at £24m MCAP at a minimum.

Everyone can read and interpret the recent RNS. All the lending facilities and warrants are there to see. I doubt we just mystifyingly get back to 1p if this raise doesn’t go through otherwise I would be buying a big slug and voting against the raise. The one detail I don’t like however is the doubling of the TP warrant reward in case the vote doesn’t go their way.

If it really was a 50% chance of turning down a new placing then a return to 1p would generate a 285% return by buying today. That's pretty good risk/reward with an upside of 285% and a downside of say 17%. If you believe that why are you telling people to hold (not buy ) as per your post? Doesn't really add up....

@DavidWK - Where did you get the 50% chance of the new placing to be rejected by shareholders? Presumably some of the existing holders plus the Board were in the last placing so hold shares still and will use this one to top up at the same price?
-Who will offer a 1p placing for the £5m amount away from Grosvenor when the SP has been sub 1p for three months ? Grosvenor look like they are struggling with their finance approval and that deal was struck at a different stage. The Align deal consisted of £2m of warrants so the upfront cash was only £3m (£1m share placing and £2m Financing at 12%).