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It's a large miscalculation on Ocados part. The increase in orders was extrapolated from their pandemic sales figures. They believed sales would hugely rise year after year. The cost of living crisis and Ukraine war has completely popped this bubble. Of course you can't foresee these events however Ocado were overly aggressive in their expansion approach imo.

Ocado have tried to put the brakes on their expansion but much of the expansion is already done leaving vastly underutilized warehouse robotic operations around the country currently. Very costly to build, maintain and service...

https://www.ft.com/content/bf79741d-7530-4865-b4e1-51a6fa098a38

Yes Ocado retail has gained a lot of new online customers. This has been due to Ocado opening new, very costly CFCs in order to increase capacity.

As Nils Pratley puts it "The gap between capacity and the actual level of sales at Ocado is enormous. A new distribution warehouse opened in Bicester this year and another is coming soon in Luton. At that point, the company says it could make 700,000 deliveries a week, equating to annual revenue of about £3.9bn. Actual orders last year were more like 400,000 a week and turnover was £2.2bn"

Ocado are being forced to lower prices in order to try and to their huge excess capacity to work. I see ongoing losses or very small profits at Ocado retail for months to come..

Yes, they are trying to drive sales with the Tesco price match. This will eat into their margins and profits, or as is currently the case at Ocado retail, increase the losses. There's a huge overcapacity at Ocado retail so they are trying anything to drive up sales and keep the robots busy.

Dropping out of the FTSE 100 I see as around 6-9 months away. Of course this is provided no new contracts are signed. Ocado retail I believe will incur further losses and a lack of new overseas partnerships will further erode confidence in the share..

Not sure it will hit that low but with a current market cap of £4.41bill Ocado is now around 90th placed in the FTSE 100. I see it dropping out of this index in the coming months leading to a deeper fall in the share price..

Ocado may not be a FTSE 100 constituent in the coming months. Ocados market valuation is currently £4.57 bill. It's around 85th in the index rankings. At £3.95 bill market cap companies start to fall out of the FTSE 100. As Ocado nears FTSE 100 relegation futher share price falls should develop..

Short term trading Ocado shares is very perilous. The results were poor today. The share has digested the news and a 5% fall is fair. Personally I believe there's further for these shares to fall given the inflationary environment is proving more long lasting. Can't see the Ocado retail outlook improving in the coming months, further losses to be incurred there. Likelihood of a continuing slow sign-up of new overseas customers to Ocado Solutions.

There's a tie in period as a result of the terms of the M&S purchase of half of Ocado retail. Ocado group can't sell their half of Ocado retail for some time yet. I believe there's still a year or more to go of the tie in period. Chilting may remember the exact timeline re this.

Marks & Spencer's have the first right to buy if Ocado group do sell their half of Ocado retail.

APD708,

The share price should drop as the results have come up short versus market expectations in all areas. Of course there is a lot of other information in these results. Having skimmed through it I didn't see anything surprising to the upside. No more details on any possible new contracts and forward guidance looked as expected.

How much will the shares drop? I'd guess 5%, could well be more..

Disappointing results as expected...

Group revenue £2.5bill versus analyst consensus estimates of £2.6bill. Pretax loss of £501 mill versus £429 expected. Group EBITDA loss of £74mill v £47 mill expectation.

As chilting outlined on this board recently "Its so counterproductive criticising other contributors to these boards."

When my research identified declining profitability and rapidly increasing costs I sold my holding. Since then there have been 3 profit warnings for Ocado retail.

Where will the Ocado share price go tomorrow? Personally I see it flat or moving lower. Overseas revenue flow will have increased but it could well be lower than market estimates. Customers around the globe choosing smaller baskets of goods, prioritising low cost items. Costs will be ramping up in all Ocado projects across the globe. Refining Ocados tech will have become increasingly costly.

We will see...

Lol OWLS, experience has taught me that occasionally tough decisions have to be made when investing in shares. My research earlier last year outlined that Ocados profitability was shrinking dramatically so I sold my holding. Very glad I did as those large profits would have diminished greatly had I held to this day. My Ocado profits were invested in emerging market shares which have themselves racked up a another profit until today.

As is always the case on share chat boards it's more interesting for many to shout down others rather than post any of their own views/ research on a given share.

Noone can predict the numerous share price highs and lows accurately. We can though, through our own research and views, learn from each other. The challenge and key point is to make a profit in share trading. Keep making more profits than losses and your portfolio grows. I've always posted broker views both negative and positive on this board. So many obvious reasons that the Ocado share price is falling. Personally not looking to invest in Ocado, more attractive opportunities elsewhere at the mo...

RBC cuts Ocado to 'underperform' (sector perform) - price target 560 (800) pence

Lol SFH, what's your view on another Ocado retail sales guidance miss today?

Yet another downgrading of sales guidance from Ocado retail today. The 3rd downgrade in the past year. No profits in the latest trading statement. No profits forecast for first half of 2023. Customer basket size continues to fall..

The increase in new customers has been gained via huge new cfc costs. I believe costs will be rising steeply at Ocado retail and any profits announced tomorrow, if there are any, will be slim..

Bernstein raises Ocado price target to 1,700 (1,500) pence - 'outperform'

Good to hear you've made big profits trading Ocado shares Blekit. Hopefully you can post some of your insights/research on here rather than stay quiet as you have done for the last 3 years. Always great to discuss on here the various facets of Ocado....

It's a very volatile share Blekit as you say, hard to make a large profit on it as myself and casapinos have. Of course market conditions change often and new contracts sometimes occur blowing predictions apart. It is still possible to have a view/predict the short term moves. What's your predictions?

What's your future share price prediction Billy, do you have any insights?