Member Info for Valueplay

Owls,

I've researched Ocado heavily for the last 10 years and continue to do so. Whether I am invested or not I always like to exchange ideas/ views on the company. I have a large cash reserve currently. I am invested in some emerging market opportunities. GBP strengthening creating attractive entry points..

Lol, so you have absolutely no personal views regarding this share? And how am I manipulating for my own benefit? Was I supposed to hang onto Ocado shares regardless simply hoping they would bounce back? I would be very interested in hearing your predictions/ views but I have never heard any at all...

Billy - What's your prediction for the Ocado share price going forward? Do you have any views? Would be interesting to hear your reasoning...

Apologies I was in a rush earlier. Yes I omitted the Auchun Poland contract. A contract for a singular CFC. 2 new overseas contracts in 3 years. Tim Steiner at the unveiling of the reimagined Ocado tech alluded to an increased flow of new contracts being signed, this has not happened. It is underwhelming in my book, many others feel the same. Losses at Ocado retail have been confirmed in Marks and Spencers latest results. Ocado retail have downgraded their sales guidance 3 times so far this year

New customers at Ocado retail is a result of building new CFCs to increase coverage. This has been done at huge cost. Overall Ocado is losing market share and there has been acknowledgement from management that Ocado retail has over expanded.

The current macroeconomic storm is extremely damaging to Ocados profitability model. Ocado CFCs are most profitable serving large baskets and working to maximum capacity. Basket sizes have consistently reduced and market share lost. In a high inflation environment Ocado gets hit very hard. Costs of building out current contracts increase. Profits drop as customers switch grocery lines to low margin products. Dry ice and fuel rises greatly reduce profit. So many other knock on effects.

Great you are personally positive. I see the opposite. The share price currently is reflecting the reality. We will see how things go in the coming months/ years...

blekit,

I have been extremely positive re Ocado in the past. My research led me to sell out for various reasons in April. I am still negative on my outlook re Ocado shares. I actively manage my investments. The global outlook re inflation and the war in Ukraine looked a toxic ****tail for Ocado back then and I see global macroeconomic conditions hitting Ocado further in the future.

There are many issues with Ocado currently. Lack of new overseas contracts. Ongoing losses at Ocado retail. Huge overexpansion of Ocado retat at great cost. Shrinking basket size orders from customers in the UK. Declining market share in the UK being just some of the issues.

So much has changed for Ocado to warrant their shares being significantly lower. You're a still positive, good luck to you. We will see how it all pans out in the months/years to come...

Today's move not due to shorters. US inflation data has come in weaker than expected hence the rise in the Ocado share price.

If there was data for long holders similarly available it would show some huge losses. Depends on what day you chose to extract the data...

Shorts are part of the trading ecosystem. If a company is successful, communicates its strategy effectively, hits its targets and outperforms then shorts soon dry up. It's when only 1 major overseas contract comes for Ocado in several years, when the UK retail division has no profitability etc, that's when the shorters sense opportunity...

Many big shorters made profits before the reporting period you are capturing. Plus you are showing this info now. Before the Korean deal this info would have been the opposite. Many more twists n turns. There could well be another downturn ahead. Best to concentrate on your own belief and analysis not worry about them. They will always be there to a greater or lesser degree..

I similarly bought v low in those times. Has to be acknowledged that shorters though have made big profits from the slip in Ocados share price. The share price isn't this low currently for no reason. Where a shares fundamentals are strong then shorts soon dry up. When there are cracks in a companies performance then opportunistic shorts emerge and multiply..

Mapper99,

The other side of the equation is that many of the long holders are currently underwater also. Seems like a good day for Ocado today but many more twists n turns ahead...

Agreed poker. Its just odd that they do not keep to their conventional reporting patterns which have remained the same over the years.

Could be accounting related, we don't know, an odd move just as losses were starting to be incurred for Ocado retail....

Looks like Ocado retail have shifted their reporting date this year in order for Xmas trading figures to hopefully give them a lift. An out of character move at a sensitive time for the company...

The results are usually released at 7am. Several sources outlined they were due today. If you look at previous Ocado retails release dates there has been a release in mid Dec with a further release in March the following year.

I wonder why the change in reporting release dates this year....

Seems that the Ocado retail quarterly trading statement, which historically has always been released around today's date, has been moved this year to Jan 23rd 2023.... This is according to Ocados financial calendar which looks to have been updated. Many were reporting the results would be released today...

The LSE has the release date for the results as midday today

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/OCDO/ocado-group-plc/company-page

"The interesting thing will be the fact that they are getting an increasing number of customers and transactions which is helping offset the smaller basket size ( which was actually back to pre COVID levels after that surge )"

Over the last year Ocado retail have spent tens of millions of £ building new CFCs in the UK. Prior to this year there were big gaps in their geographical coverage of the UK. Also in areas they could service Ocado often had capacity constraints meaning they couldn't service the area fully in a way that their competitors could.

Having built the new CFCs customer orders at Ocado retail were always going to increase given these new markets available to them. Ocado have admitted they have ramped up and expanded in the UK too rapidly and are now pausing expansion. Overcapacity is very costly and is weighing on Ocado retails profitability. The changes in consumer behaviour of choosing smaller baskets buying goods with less margin greatly reduces the Ocado profitability model.

The really interesting question is how Ocado is doing versus competitors in geographical areas it had been present in for many years. Ocado retail is currently losing market share. This loss of market share comes at a time when costs are ramping up hugely...

Ocado shares dropping back as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrows Ocado Retail trading statement.

What to expect tomorrow? Continuation of previous trends. Reduction in sales guidance. Bleak forward outlook. Consumers choosing smaller basket sizes, trading down to cheaper goods with less margin. Losses expected to be announced imo...

That's a good read casapinos, moosejaw = superb

Yes, as the online delivery market matures then as the saturation point becomes nearer the mainstream store pick model starts to become profitable. Ocado retail will show next week the profitability of their UK business that is fully established and is the most evolved example of a Ocado CFC network on the planet...

You're still holding billybamboozle. So what's your expectation for the Ocado retail quarterly trading statement next week? Positive things?

Chilting

"my strategy is simply to hold in bad times" is very naive instead of actively managing your investment.

Best of luck to you however I believe there are worse times ahead for this share...

Chilting, you're flipping back and forth with your reasoning re the US economy. Many solid reasons for Ocado to be falling other than mere sentiment. Misreading the macro trends is very costly. Many investors simply hope things can get better....