Member Info for Valueplay

You are the king of wishful thinking chilting, as below lol

https://youtu.be/XBZUz4C6kqk

Dow futures now down 326pts...

Dow futures down 134pts currently. This crisis rumbles on. Many laugh it off as panic, hysteria, fiction created by hedge funds etc. However as the share prices tumble those views will reverse ...

"A decisive end to the Banking Crisis could be on the cards by Monday morning"

This banking crisis is bigger than Credit Suisses troubles. Many regional banks in the US have slumped dramatically. Issues at other banks likely to emerge..

FTSE futures as I speak pointing to a modest 20pt rise for the FTSE 100 on Monday. Personally I believe Ocado shares have further to fall. Ocado retail trading statement is on the 28th March. Extremely likely to report more of the same, reduced basket sizes, lower sales guidance, customers switching to cheaper product lines...

Credit Suisse shares now down 24%. Banking crisis deepens...

Doubt the budget will move this share much. In the face of a banking crisis Ocado, with retail losses and technology that's being shunned by it's major clients, is very vulnerable..

Mapper is right if you look at your info closer chilting. Current shorters such as Whale Rock are still overall at a loss re their historic Ocado short trades.

Shorters lost out hugely in the Ocado share price boom years. Continually being burnt and helping the share price propel upwards.

Shorts are part of the ecosystem. To focus on them detracts from an investigation of the real issues...

- Ocado retail and Kroger halting CFC expansion.
- Ocado retail racking up ongoing losses.
- Rising costs across the business.
- Shoppers moving away from big basket shopping - Ocados tech is focussed around big basket shops.

Above are just some of the huge issues driving Ocados share price down. Shorts get blown away when performance rises. On this occasion though I can see shorts continuing their recent profitable run..

I don't see Ocados today's price/market cap as attractive. If Kroger are rethinking their Ocado CFC development then there's a very good chance Ocados other clients are wanting to do the same. I see less chance of new contracts being signed and less chance of existing customers ordering more CFCs. Couple that with the current macro storm of inflation and now SVB related issues and it adds up to a stock to be avoided in my view.

Later on down the line maybe there will be value. Currently though there are too many negatives related to the company itself and the macroeconomic environment around it...

Ocado is now 98th place in the FTSE 100..

Marc135,

Since the cost of living crisis has unfolded, at roughly the start of the Ukraine war I observed that some large flaws were opening up in the Ocado business model. The primary ones are Ocado retail overexpansion set against reduced rates of online grocery growth. Customers have been reducing basket sizes, shifting lines to cheaper goods. These trends are very detrimental to the Ocado business model. Ocado retail prioritized the wrong geographic areas for expansion.

This trend in Ocado retail is now playing out around the world. Kroger are pausing Ocado CFC development. They haven't outlined as to why but the read across is that customers there are reducing basket sizes etc. Robotics will play an increased part in grocery delivery in the future but I believe the large CFC model Ocado have developed will be usurped by competing technology.

I am not invested in Ocado and have no plans to invest. My outlook for the stock is negative.

Yes, SVB problem was large amount of assets tied up in bonds which had lost value as interest rates rose. Credit downgrade dented investor confidence causing a speedy increase in withdrawals from depositors. SVB forced to sell bond assets at a loss to finance the outflows.

On the UK side of SVB HSBC have negotiated a sensible deal that suits both sides. It will increase their relationship with the UK government who have thanked them for stepping in. It's absolutely not deal of the century. Good business, yes.

Chilting called the SVB purchase by HSBC the buy of the century in this thread. Bonkers imo.

Since Ocados annual results were issued 2 weeks ago the Ocado share price has fallen 43%. They were a very poor set of results. It continues to undermine confidence in the company. Today's moves are mostly about the macro yes but with such poor results recently issued there is little to inspire anyone to go long Ocado shares..

Pokerchips, Yes, first Republic issued that statement. After that the share price plunged further in premarket trading today...

Pokerchips,

It is very naive to think that HSBCs SVB UK purchase is buy of the century....

It's rational fear. Steep interest hikes have put great pressure on bond portfolios in the US. There's a run on first Republic Bank unfolding as we speak. Other US regional banks shares falling sharply in premarket trading. Not a great buy by HSBC in mine or the markets view, their shares down 3% today..

The stockmarket is unforgiving re companies that have basic flaws currently. Ocado falling further after very poor results..

First Republic Bank shares are down 70% in premarket trading. SVB may well cause other banking dominoes to fall. Creating further market moves away from risky assets such as Ocado.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/frc/pre-market

There's a lot of fear in the market currently. SVB could be a harbinger of of other issues to come. Risky assets such as Ocado being sold off again. With Ocado retail currently making losses and Ocado Solutions biggest client rethinking its cfc rollout the obvious move for this share is further down...

Yes, all tech stocks will be hit on Monday. Jeremy Hunt has outlined that there's a current serious risk to the UK tech sector re SVB. There's not going to be a bailout in the US for SVB Janet Yellen has confirmed.

Apologies my second link in previous post is incorrect. I can't find a direct link between SVB and Wayve. Looks like Ocados exposure to SVB is small but the hit to the startup industry which Ocado work with closely will be large.

SVBs bankruptcy is certainly an issue for Ocado. I doubt Ocado have any cash directly held with SVB however some of the companies they have investments in or companies they have close business relationships will.

For example Ocado have a £10mill investment in Wayve, a self driving vehicle tech company

https://wayve.ai/press/wayve-and-ocado-group-partner-to-develop-autonomous-grocery-deliveries-for-osp-retailers-globally/

Wayve is heavily financed by SVB..

https://techfundingnews.com/uk-fintech-wise-grabs-300m-in-syndicate-debt-facility-from-silicon-valley-bank/

Government in UK and US looks to be willing to bail out SVB to some extent however very clear there will be losses to its investors/ clients.

There will be some financial loss to Ocado and just as important there will be some disruption to the product development that the companies backed by Ocado are involved in..