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Joseywales,

Do you have a source for your info below?

"Is this drop largely because of Amazon opening up a warehouse in New York with the autostore solution"

Ocado shares rose hugely in June/July on takeover hopes. So far there's no substance to those rumours so back down the share goes. Further digestion of the recent poor Ocado retail results by the market and the lack of new overseas contracts adds to the downward pressure..

That CFC has been under construction for a few years, the information is priced into the market. I've heard no rumours about Kroger cutting existing under construction CFCs. The question and the market moving information is re Kroger's future plans for Ocado....

Gioviano,

There are only 15 brokers that issue ratings on Ocado, not a hundred. I've not talked about Exanes target price. Exane have long had a low price target re Ocado. Nothing has changed there. Exane highlighted last week that Ocado retails latest results were poor. The market agreed and has marked the shares down, around 20% down from the results release as I type.

Exane increased their Ocado target price in their last rating on Ocado...

Mapper,

A third source..

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12186651/MARKET-REPORT-Ocado-shares-surge-investors-bet-rebound.html

Mapper,

The previous lower Exane 365p June price target was widely reported in the press at the time, another source..

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/finance/ocado-gets-vote-of-confidence-with-much-better-outlook/680318.article

Mapper,

Correction - 350p was Exanes Ocado target price before June. In June they issued a 365p target price. They issued a 390p target price last week. A source below:

https://www.grocerygazette.co.uk/2023/06/13/ocado-shares-surge/

Gioviano,

Exanes new target price for Ocado is 390p. Their previous Ocado target price issued in June was 350p. They have had a low target price for Ocado for an extended period.

You hadn't heard of Exane last week (even though they have been a key broker in covering Ocado over the last 10+ years). Now you are say they acting on behalf of a shorting enterprise. Of course you say this without any evidence.

The Ocado retail results were very poor. The market has passed judgement and marked the share price down accordingly.

a broker who have covered Ocado for over 10 years

That's one way of describing it onsolidground...

Obvious that the recent disappointing Ocado retail results have brought the share down a peg. With the lack of any substance to the takeover rumour and new contracts slow in materialising it's an obvious move currently by the market to discount the shareprice.

Cureboy,

Some broker ratings move the market, some don't. Depends on the quality of the research. Exanes research yesterday caused the market to re-evaluate the Ocado retail results (which imo were poor). This reversed the previous upward moves from the share price due to the expectation of good results and takeover gossip.

Cureboy,

Exane don't have the lowest rating on Ocado. Shore capital, long term Ocado bear, do. Exanes research is highly regarded hence it's market moving nature yesterday.

Cureboy, Exane are well known to me. Regarding Ocado they have closely followed the company from its inception and been one of a pack of leading analysts regarding the company. See below re their insights on Ocado 10 years ago for example..

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/markets/market-roundup-online-laggards-may-have-ocado-on-their-lists-reckons-exane-8481645.html

The Ocado share price recently rose greatly off the back of takeover speculation. Naturally as no takeover has come forward this share has slid back. Poor Ocado retail results have escalated the slide. When a share rises 20% it's cheered, when it falls it's always said it's due to market manipulation etc.

The fact that most here haven't even heard of Exane, part of the largest banking group in Europe, says a lot about how informed most posters are.

Mapper,

Generally the problems are that the online grocery shopping growth figures are currently falling further behind the bullish estimates of the past. Ocados share price is based on the expectation of huge growth and profits gained from many more deals overseas. Currently though Ocado retail growth is very slow and new deals are not occuring as quickly as predicted by analysts

Online grocery shopping will be increasingly popular 10 years from now. The problem for instacart and Ocado is can they sustain the huge losses in these current years in order to get to a brighter future. Many companies fail before they get to see their ideas / predictions being fully realised.

Mapper,

"Looks like Instacart going to suffer again today in US. They use the store pick model for food deliveries like Uber, Gorilla and Deliveroo. Not much competition for Ocado in US."

So far today Instacart shares +0.23%, Ocado down -18%...

Cureboy,

FYI Exane are a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, the largest banking group in Europe. They are a key part of the European investment banking industry. Of course if you believe their research is wrong then there's a nice buying opportunity for you now...

Https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/ocado-shares-slide-after-exane-downgrade-2023-09-21/

Exane are, rightly in my view, very concerned by the growth prospects of Ocado. The recent Ocado retail results were poor. Customer numbers increasing only 1% despite more CFCs being open this year compared to last. The customers Ocado retail has are buying less goods than previously, a trend that has goes back many months. Ocado retail is the showcase for the company, the shop window to entice other overseas clients to jump onboard. Currently it is significantly underperforming.

New contracts for Ocado Solutions have been extremely slow in materialising. Costs will be rising and inflation remains sticky. Oil prices increasing adds more pressure to Ocados delivery model. The takeover talk was simply hot air so that price rise bubble is now deflating...

Phoenixy

Ocados average basket size of goods reduced 3.9%, Average basket value, after adjustment for Ocados grocery inflation, fell 4.2%.

That's very positive in your view??

Average basket size at Ocado retail is still falling when adjusted for inflation. Ocados average basket size increased 4.2% year on year, Ocados grocery inflation is 8.4%. Net result = overall basket size shrinkage of -4.2%.

Ok well you are focussing on a part of the half year report but Avocet is completely correct in that Ocado is still posting losses. Can't accuse him of not paying attention lol.

Re the trading statement tomorrow yes EBITDA should improve. I believe the market will be disappointed with the trading statement tomorrow, margins will be under pressure due to the grocery price cuts Ocado has been conducting to gain market share and overall costs will worry the market.