Member Info for Valueplay

Currently - FTSE down 0.3%, Ocado down 2.6%

Given the macro storm of rising costs/ inflation/ rising interest rates this share rightly is bring pushed further down. Grocery customers are reducing their basket sizes and trading down to cheaper lines. The upcoming Ocado retail statement likely to be very disappointing....

Norrab,

I've no specific reentry price re Ocado shares. There's too many factors involved. I've reiterated my reasoning for the current underperformance of Ocado shares many times on this board. As mentioned many times previously I see 650p as a reasonable price for this share, as mentioned though I believe it will drop lower. The upcoming Ocado retail trading statement will be disappointing in my opinion...

Tuesday: antlev writes "I have a theory, looking forward to seeing how this opens in the morning."

(No detail given as to the theory. Was it that the share was predicted to fall, rise or flat line? How much was it predicted to fall, rise?)

Wednesday: the sp opens and closes slightly above Tuesday's close.

Thursday: the sp leaps, antlev told to "stay shtum".

(Quite right too lol)

Friday: the sp continues to climb.

(Somehow antlev is trying to claim credit for something having offered no prediction initially lol)

Morning Poker

Yes the share went that low in October. I didn't foresee the Korean deal occuring then. I follow this share in great detail and make decisions off the back of my research. I've profited well from buying in very low and selling out at a higher price. Of course there are always risks attached with any investment. Personally I see the current macroeconomic conditions and an underwhelming Ocado retail statement leading this share lower over the coming months.

There may well come a time when I see value in investing in Ocado shares again. Very happy to patiently wait for that opportunity...

JPMorgan raises Ocado price target to 550 (500) pence - 'underweight'

@Newdealz, Regarding Ocado shares I am still not invested. There will be lower entry points into this share in the coming months imo...

The key driver to today's move has been Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech yesterday which appeared to confirm a slowdown in the future interest rate rises in the US. Personally I see this rally petering out and interest / inflationary worries persisting. A move back to sub 650p and a disappointing mid December Ocado retail update to come...

Antlev, what is/was your theory? Or is it a secret?....

Lol @ antlev. I have a theory... No more details... When share finally rises a decent amount then claim credit.

Ocado shares dropping as the new Ocado retail trading statement nears. Ocado retail have reduced their sales guidance 3 times this year and Marks and Spencers recently confirmed in their trading report that Ocado retail is now loss making. Every likelihood that these losses are rising in this macroeconomic environment.

Sub 650p a logical place for this share to be..

Treacherous market conditions for Ocado currently. 650p is a very logical value for the share price. I see it dropping below that level though as the macroeconomic storm intensifies...

Ocado retail are an important part of the Ocado group. Ocado retail showcases the breadth of Ocados technology. The losses are important as they could well mount up further in months to come. Just at a time when costs are rising throughout the rest of Ocados business and just as the cost of borrowing is increasing greatly.

The market is understandably wary. UK online grocery consumers are cutting back on purchases, switching to cheaper lines of goods, buying smaller basket sizes. This behaviour will be replicated around the world eating into Ocado groups profits.

The current £5.4bill is a large valuation for Ocado group considering the extreme negative macroeconomic environment working against the company. I can see this valuation falling further..

Logic and fundamentals are very much being followed by the market regarding Ocados share price. Ocado retail has issued 3 profit downgrades this year and is currently lossmaking as confirmed in Marks and Spencers latest results. These losses in all probability will increase in the months ahead. The terms of Ocados overseas deals are not known.

The high inflationary macroeconomic environment puts a lot of stress on Ocados economics. Rising costs all around. Customers across the globe seeking out cheaper lines of groceries and buying smaller basket sizes online.

Of course the South Korean deal was a positive but that's now priced in. Oscillating around the 650p price, as mentioned previously, is a reasonable price for Ocado shares. Given the macroeconomic environment I believe there is a higher probability of further falls than further rises from here on ...

Marks and Spencers taking over Ocado makes no sense. It would not happen... A £2.5 bill company buying out a £5.5 bill company. They don't have anywhere near the finance needed. Marks are not interested in being a majority tech company....

I'm not shorting Ocado. I guess you are now?

Why would shorts reduce and take profit? More likely that shorts will open up new positions and/or existing shorts increase their positions currently imo....

Korean contract win rightly brought the Ocado share price up from the £4s to the £6s. Short squeeze and over speculation brought the share into the £9s. Bubble popped as the market returned to evaluating the fundamentals of Ocado and the extraordinarily adverse market conditions it is currently trading in. £6.5 is a reasonable price for this share currently...

Chilting,

"There are no certainties anywhere in business"

Agreed which is why I was pointing out your statement to be incorrect..

"Ocado is following the same development program and although it's an expensive option, it will eventually yield the same results but hopefully with a little less drama than Tesla."

Ocados development program may not yield the results stated as above. There are a host of factors that could blow Ocado off course and put a great dent in their product development...

"Ocado is following the same development program and although it's an expensive option, it will eventually yield the same results but hopefully with a little less drama than Tesla."

There's absolutely no certainties re Ocado. The current macroeconomic climate has had a huge negative impact on Ocado and will continue to do so. So many things could occur in the future. Costs could spiral out of control. There could be another warehouse fire. Only Ocado management and the partners management team know the terms of the contracts signed. They could be very lucrative or could give wafer thin profits to Ocado.

Tesla has proved itself. Ocado has a great deal to do. It is a success story yes but the current economic headwinds can continue to bring huge problems to Ocado and blow it off course...

Let's see if your reading of the economic backdrop is proved correct. As said previously I'm seeing this share reducing off the back of the current adverse macroeconomic environment. Short squeeze gave it a boost but now the market is back to examining the fundamentals of Ocado...