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Good points Karister, good to have your thoughts on here.

Committed partners central to Ocado's ambition. Which is why the marriage of Ocado and a significantly behind retailer regarding grocery online works well. Kroger, Marks n Sparks, Morrison's all well behind the curve when partnerships signed. Hence they commit to an all in scenario with Ocado. As you say - the partners need to be solvent though.

Correction:

Ocado's return over 2 months is now 18.5% (July 3 to Sept 3).

Big falls today in tech fuelled primary by a collective view that the sector had got too far ahead of itself. Ocado's return over 3 months is now 18.5% (July 3 to Sept 3). Still a fantastic return but crimped from the lofty heights it was at before today. I didn't see that correction coming. Happy to still hold as I would be more concerned if it were an Ocado specific issue causing the fall.

I've seen all sorts of days for Ocado over the last 3 years, many, many more crazy than today. Some big falls and many stupendous rises. When holding a tech stock these days do come. Crossover trend from market close in the US and current futures prices looking to suggest there will be a stable to possibly higher rise for Ocado at market open tomorrow. Could easily go in either direction. Of interest is any sign covid vaccinations could be ready earlier than anticipated. Earlier exit from the pandemic would reduce slightly the rate of forecasted growth for online grocery market growth worldwide.

Best re tomorrow. Share any thoughts if you can. A problem shared is a problem halved

Me too. Ocado shorters and their unwinding positions have helped us longs greatly over the years

Minor drop today. Tech futures down in US signifying a sectoral shift today. Ocado still vastly outperforming bricks and mortar retail over last 2 months. No specific reason for today's drop, bit of profit taking after a huge rise recently

Sort is intact, exciting times

Good points 8177mpb.

To add... Ocado is very much tried and tested. They have been in the online grocery delivery business for 20 years! Fine tuning things daily along the way. Many firms I believe had online grocery tech development plans but the pandemic has caught a lot out. The tech is needed now. The demand is huge. The music has stopped and I believe grocery retailers are looking around to see who can help them the most.. now. It's Ocado who is the stand out option to get them battle ready and in a position to profit from online deliveries. Amazon are making is blatantly clear that they have huge ambitions in grocery delivery. To compete with them you need a cutting edge solution not thousands of people running around picking, packing and delivering. Ocado have mentioned driverless vehicle delivery as something they are developing for the future. It is still a way off but that will really cut out costs and improve accuracy.

Very exciting times. Great to bounce ideas around on the chat at the moment. Many angles to further explore/discuss/understand

True. I can't see it being something that crimps the progress of online grocery though.

Interesting point Pursestrings.

I've long heard of the proposed UK online sales tax, hadn't heard of any proposed rate. 2% makes sense if it were to be implemented. The market has long heard of its proposal. There's been little if any negative reaction from Ocado's share price so far regarding it.

If it were implemented , and it's a big if, I can only see it being at a very low rate. Never getting to the 5/10% you mention. Online shopping is too ingrained in our psyche now. It's the norm so there would be a big backlash from consumers if it were ever raised to a significant level.

I would think the online retailers lobby would prevent government raising it to an appreciable level. Amazon have many UK government contracts, they deliver covid tests currently for example. I think Amazon would lean quite hard on the government. Tim Steiner has donated cash to the Conservatives. Asos, an amazing UK success story, would be up in arms etc etc.

The UK represents just part of the market for Ocado. Probably a wider question here is will there be a trend whereby governments around the world implement online sales taxes. Personally I can't see that happening at a level that will harm online retailers and stop the trend of retail moving online in all forms at an escalating rate.

Any more thoughts on this Pursestrings? Anyone else have any thoughts re this?

Cheers!

I think Ocado are far advanced than Amazon. They have more experience, large amounts of patented tech and expertise in online grocery facilitation.

Amazon surely will try to catch up fast though. I see Amazon as having a realistic ambition of supplying the whole world with the complete range of groceries. They own wholefoods in the USA which is reasonably high end. They now deliver Waitrose food via deliveroo (Amazon have a 16% stake in deliveroo - I can see them increasing that stake whenever they can). They deliver the full range of Morrison's too

As Amazons ambitions become clear to all, grocery retailers are forced to look for a way to compete/ outcompete profitably with them. Ocado has this ability.

(Continued)

Hop we can discuss issues further on here. Such a crucial juncture we are at currently. A myriad of different partners Ocado could supply or collaborate with...

What once was a very unpopular segment of the market is very much now the hottest arena of retail. Very hard to find an analyst who advises that the online grocery market will not grow hugely.

8177mpb,

Interesting post, great that you are enthused about the future for Ocado and feel like now is the right time to be back onboard.

Certainly I too express gratitude again to rocka999 who was a visionary voice amongst the gloomsters on this board in years gone by. Once the most shorted share on the FTSE. Tough times, I stayed invested and what a journey it has been since.

I'd say the grocery side of Ocado, Ocado retail is worth £1-£1.5 bill. The other half was sold to Marks and Spencers for £750m a while back so your valuation is a bit over. Agreed re the tech. Its value , the current contracts around the world for Ocado solutions and the extremely bright future prospects more than justify the current market cap.

Tim leaving is an Achilles heel. He is more valuable than ever given the CFO and chairman of Ocado are leaving soon. He has a huge Ocado shareholding and is on excellent incentives to further deliver so I can't see why monetarily he would leave. He is extremely proud of what he's built, is pretty young so I would think he's loving every day currently. So many people told him his company was worthless, incredible tenacity to overcome them through hard work and a laser like vision of the future of online grocery, way ahead of its time. Ocado could be taken over. There has not been the slightest hint that Tim wants that to happen but it's always possible if the right suitor approaches. He may have other career aspirations, politics etc but I haven't read anything to indicate that.

It's an incredibly exciting time to be invested in Ocado. They have industry leading tech in a market that is increasing hugely in size by the day. The pandemic has squeezed years of market evolution into months.

Factors such as the below are very much in Ocado's favour:

Very high barrier to entry (as you rightly point out).

Current forecasted prolonged very low interest rates (great for next round of financing) which will come if Ocado successfully sign more big contracts.

Grocery retailers around the world are scrambling about trying to update their online grocery solutions fast, Ocado offer a perfect antedote to Amazon's tenacious tentacles.

Ocado are fully financed after recent fundraising so are ready to take on new opportunities/maximize their advantage right now

Already huge list of signed up contract partners around the world who are all pushing to further grow their Ocado solutions run capabilities.

New wave of covid cases occuring across the world after lockdowns eased. As weather gets colder virus spreads more as it survives better in cooler temps. People are more indoors, more infection likely than outside. This new rise will further decrease footfall in bricks and mortar stores and drive up further the market for online grocery delivery around the world. Once people switch to online deliveries research has shown that a very large amount stick to that method of shopping.

Best of luck! Hope we can dis

Anyone any comment/insight on this? Thx

Not true Gioviano55020. I have never said on any board that a companies shares are worth less than half of current market value or that any company has no potential. Very uninformed particularly regarding Ocado who clearly are an incredible success story and continue to be so.

Neil held Ocado for a while and sold out way, way below the value they are now, that drives his bitterness towards the company still today

Great to see Ocado again exceeding the flying FTSE 100. Unlike other less remarksable investments out there...

Long been a debate on this board as to how far advanced Amazon is in automating its grocery deliveries. Crucial to Ocado is that its technology solutions for online grocery surpass or at the very least equal Amazon's so that they can then go on and sign lucrative contracts regarding their technology around the world.

Generally opinions on this board including mine have pointed out that Amazon are significantly behind Ocado. Below is an article regarding Amazon's latest dark store fulfillment centre in New York. Given the photo it seems like it's a very labour intensive model. Not much to be worried about..... yet. Of course Amazon have almighty financial clout and will always be looking to improve at great speed.

https://mashable.com/article/whole-foods-amazon-online-only-grocery-store/

I have never seen a photo of inside a Ocado zoom fulfillment centre which would be a fair comparison to the above. Imagine though it would be far, far more high tech.

Neil's a bit touchy after his unremarksable day re MKS shares so far.... All good re Ocado on the other hand.

Such a massively complex task to change major suppliers over a few days. Always the possibility of small issues. It hasn't effected the Ocado share price though. It's positive for the day currently....

Glad to have cheered you up on a pretty underwhelming day for yourself so far

The negative issues are getting little debate here which is a shame as there is much to discuss further.

I see future local lockdowns as a certainty and a national non food shop closures as a distinct possibility. Given that the government have clearly stated they will protect schools opening at all costs.

Certainly as virus levels increase, footfall in turn will fall greater.

My research indicates further weakness in MKS's share price. If someone were looking to invest, as chilting was proposing - not myself, then I see lower MKS share prices in the future in which to invest.

Neil,

I have been wholly invested in Ocado for many years. Had I sold and invested in MKS in March and held til today I would have considerably less returns than I currently have. Ocado has outperformed MKS hugely since March this year. Not shorting MKS, very interested from a research perspective though.

Extensive research has greatly improved my market knowledge and my bank balance. It's surprising to me that many people invest having done little if it.