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Now £28.77, what a super 20 mins....

£29 getting closer by the second... £28.52 currently...

Citigroup reiterated their £29 price target yesterday and continue to rate the stock a buy.

Exactly Manofleisure,

Ocado's future success is by no means guaranteed. Lots of operational risk out there. Ocado though have shown time after time that they can handle that and then some.

Shorters may win out one day but I am firmly in the long camp.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/

Polar asset management have increased their short by 0.01% so it now shows up as a disclosed position.

Overall an extremely low level of shorts on this share.

Superb, thanks Ed_win,

I tweaked a few minor things and added the newly announced Phoenix CFC. Great to have a location to keep track of the groups body of knowledge.

Since the Berenberg (sensible in my view) price target of £29 was released one issue has started to increase. Many countries are now looking at extended travel bans in and out of the country to control the spread of new Covid variants. With no overseas holidays I can see people staying at home more, consuming online groceries rather than consuming hotel and restaurant food abroad. They will very likely treat themselves with more expensive goods as they are saving money not spending on overseas holidays

The outlook for Ocado retail in the UK must now be incredibly strong over an extended time period from now. Overseas online grocery demand will rise further. The more online grocery delivery grows the more Ocado stands to benefit as they will ramp up CFCs in many countries across the world and take a big slice of the countries market share.

Looking good all...

Ocado have 7 existing or planned mini or large CFC's in the UK (I missed Bicester off my list previously) I just had a look by typing in dummy postcodes and it seems Ocado do not deliver to Liverpool or anywhere north of this in the UK. Anyone know the furthest North they deliver to currently?

I estimated, given the outlook currently for Ocado, that 12 CFCs in total will be built in the UK. I think I will revise this to 20?

There's massive demand for Ocado currently and post pandemic there will still be more demand than their current warehouse space in the areas they currently deliver in. They are building out Ocado zoom capability which means more mini CFCs across the country. And there are large populous areas they do not currently deliver to.

Any thoughts? Can anyone improve on this estimate?

Thanks

https://www.andoveradvertiser.co.uk/news/19037033.andover-ocado-warehouse-reopen-spring-2021-fire/

Anyone know if this is earlier than expected?

Thanks okiedo re your previous post

shaggers54, thx, Southern Europe seems very plausible as the next Ocado Solutions contract area. We should be expecting advanced online grocery markets as the next contract areas. Developing markets like China, India, Indonesia, South America I would expect to come later on..

Yes, there are some new partnerships/geographies where a newly signed large scale Ocado Solutions contract would leave the current £27 share price look like an absolute bargain. China and India being the prime examples.

Tim Steiner has huge share option incentives that richly reward him if the share price reaches £42. He and the team will be doing everything they can to push it there.

Better to keep in the moment though than dream of huge partnerships ahead. If Ocado get caught napping others will march in and sign up grocers from under their noses.

Everything I know about Ocado tells me though that they have absolute focus on how to maintain being the best that they are currently.

Thanks for the positive comments re my research. Much appreciated

Interesting point chilting re Korea. Ed_win - A Chinese contract is I believe a firm possibility in the future but not a certainty. I think a Chinese contract is at least 1+ years away. Tricky market that Ocado would want to enter with the right partner.

The next important milestone I see as being whichever the next overseas Ocado Solutions contact announced is. I think the next contract is taking on increased significance as there have been no new contracts signed for a while and none announced after the Autostore legal dispute arose.

I believe a new contract will come in the next few months, maybe longer as blanket travel restrictions must be presenting significant issues. When it comes it will breathe further upwards movement in the share price and other contracts may follow soon in quicker succession than previous ones.

It is imperative that Ocado manage current contracts well and ramp them up to plan. If Ocado continue to have a superior operating model then other grocers will sign up in future.

There is a lot of operational risk managing these different projects around the world but I believe the management are capable of delivering.

As my research shows Ocado currently partner with several grocers who are major players in countries in which Ocado have no presence. If Ocado prove themselves to the likes of Casino group in France and Aeon in Japan it stands to reason that those companies would then be keen to roll out the Ocado solution further in their network, to Brazil, Hong Kong, Malaysia etc

Aeon have a presence in China + Taiwan however it's not a large one.

Groupe Casino through a subsidiary are the second largest retailer in Brazil, Total CFC expectation - 10

Groupe Casino through subsidiaries also have a large presence in Colombia, Uruguay and Argentina, Total CFC expectation - 5

South Korea - Total CFC expectation 8. This expectation stems from an interview with Ocado management earlier this year

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200521000844

India, China, Africa, Europe (ex France, Spain, Sweden and Baltic States) Rest of Asia (ex Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia) Middle east, Central America, Rest of South America, Russia are huge populous geographies with no current Ocado Solutions or Ocado Solutions partners presence

Very hard to estimate the amount of new CFCs that will be built in these new geographies. Contracts should be struck when the time is right. A suitable partner needs to be selected and the infrastructure in the country needs to be suited to online grocery deliveries. Worth Ocado holding back in many countries then partnering when online grocery market has evolved there and the market is ripe for growth.

My expectation above is of 119 CFCs and that within the new geographies with no current Ocado Solutions or Ocado partner presence 71+ further CFCs will be built.

Does anyone have any further comment/insight on any aspect of this? Would be great to develop these thoughts further.

Thanks. Best to all.

As always do your own research. Above simply outlines my thoughts/estimates.

There's a diverse group of minds with a great amount of Ocado knowledge reading and posting on this board. I am hoping we can work together to form opinions on key Ocado issues. The first I would like to look at is how we all see Ocado Solutions CFCs developing around the world.

In general the posters on this board agree with Berenbergs recent buy rating on Ocado shares. Personally I believe their £29 price target to be achievable given the way in which the pandemic is lengthening and becoming more complex. This will further drive online grocery demand around the world which will benefit Ocado retail and more importantly Ocado Solutions in time as more CFCs are built and enabled around the world. There is an increased likelihood of other international grocers partnering with Ocado Solutions. I would speculate that the contracts Ocado Solutions sign in the future will be more lucrative than previous ones as their solution becomes more proven and sought after. As more CFCs are built Ocado Solutions benefits from economies of scale which drives down costs.

Many reading will have higher Ocado share price targets but I believe it's best to think one step at a time (many fast moving variables impacting this share at play currently) so I stick to the £29 target. Generally this boards posters agree with Berenberg which believes concerns about the patent infringement claims are overdone.

Berenberg has a base-case expectation of Ocado Solutions developing 190 CFC's around the world. This belief fuels their £29 price target.

I wonder if we as a group can build our own consensus around the expectations of CFC's numbers we see Ocado Solutions developing? I believe when Berenberg refer to a CFC they mean one of any size so they are including the many mini CFC's Ocado Solutions are developing.

Below is my list of current Ocado Solutions contracts along with date contract signed, number of CFC's confirmed and the number of CFCs I currently expect Ocado Solutions to build in the relevant country in the future.

My CFC estimations are based on current partnerships flourishing and based roughly on the populations of the given countries.

29 Nov 2019 Aeon Japan - No details . Total CFC expectation - 15
26 Mar 2019 Coles Australia - 2 confirmed. Total CFC expectation - 4
30 May 2018 Kroger USA - 20 confirmed. Total CFC expectation - 40
2 May 2018 ICA Sweden 1 confirmed. Total CFC expectation 3 (ICA contract also covers the Baltic States Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)
22 Jan 2018 Sobeys Canada 3 confirmed. Total CFC expectation - 6
28 Nov 2017 Groupe Casino France 1 confirmed. Total CFC expectation 6
Bon Preu Spain confirmed 0, Total CFC expectation 3

UK, Existing/confirmed - Purfleet, Bristol, Hatfield, Dordon, Erith and Andover.
Total CFC expectation - 12

Malaysia - No contract signed but Aeon has a big presence in the country. Total CFC expectation- 6

Hong Kong - No contract signed but Aeon have a large presence there, Total CFC

Great to see another positive day for the Ocado share price on a rough day for the market overall. Market conditions and momentum continue to favour Ocado.....

https://fronterasdesk.org/content/1652326/kroger-build-automated-customer-fulfillment-center-phoenix

Berenbergs reasoning below regarding the price hike of their Ocado share price target today to £29. They still rate the shares as a buy.

----------

Ocado was also on the rise as Berenberg upped its price target on shares of the online supermarket to 2,900p from 2,525p. The bank said Ocado is a long-term winner.

"Covid-19 has accelerated the online channel shift and highlighted the importance of automation as a long-term solution for online grocery," it said.

"Ocado is primed to capitalise. Once travel restrictions ease, we expect more deals with both existing and new partners and increase our base-case number of customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) to 190 (from 178). We also believe concerns about the patent infringement claims are overdone; the group is confident that no valid patents have been infringed."

Previous comment is tongue in cheek of course referring to Neil's latest spoutings.

Jimmyroyal,

Looks like we will get to your entry point share price quicker than predicted....

Ocado doing well today given it is a horrible, ridiculous, horrific company whose good lorry drivers are it's best selling point.....

Heat now being turned up a notch...