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Very happy to have added today. Opportunity knocked.

hedged - re interest rates. I see them stabilizing however they may well continue to rise more than thought. Ocado in my view has been unduly punished in the overall tech selloff.

Ocado has over £2.1bill of available funds. It has been very well managed when finance has been raised over the years. Tim Steiner's 8 years experience as a Goldman Sachs bond trader no doubt helping. In Dec 2019 £500m was raised in via convertible bonds. The demand was so strong Ocado issued a further £100m of bonds. Smart move, locking more funds raise at a low rate.

Ocado issued more convertible bonds and also raised funds from shareholders to a total of £1bill in June 2020. They didn't need to but they capitalized on the strong market demand when rates were low. Smart.

Ocado's capex is £700m for this year so they are well financed for a few more years to come. Ocado will receive higher income this year from its Ocado retail and Solutions divisions. When a new overseas deal is signed they will need to raise further finance but I believe the market will be understanding of this and the share price would rise considerably if a new deal were struck.

Ney has posted eloquently today as to why anyone should invest in Ocado. I strongly believe in the same vision of the future for Ocado.

Bought in further at 1972p today. Personally I see this recovering well in time.

Big sell off in Asian tech shares overnight. US treasury bond yields surging further.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

Tough market pushing against Ocado again today..

Why write these rambling posts? I take it you are short? Fair enough. Surely you have the courage to tell if you are?

Assets tripper - You must be heavily shorting Ocado shares?

I have an anytime pass and had one for many years. During the first lockdown I had to go elsewhere for deliveries often. Deliveries work out cheaply with the pass. I have a delivery every week.

Pandemics are incredibly rare. The ramped up capacity this year for Ocado retail will enable them to deal with any big spikes in demand with ease going forward.

I had a similar experience with Ocado retail deliveries throughout the year jimjam. During the first lockdown delivery slots were often unavailable. From then on n they have been excellent. As you say their freshness is second to none. Also their accuracy, timeliness, lowest food wasteage , delivery driver competence etc is superior.

I understand that you would like M&S retain exclusivity but as they do not own Ocado groups side of the joint venture the only way they could guarantee that would be for M&S to buy it from Ocado. That would be very costly given the remaining half roughly would cost £1.5-1.75bill.

The which survey is genuine. It's a highly rated/ respected survey that Ocado retail have won for 2 consecutive years previous to the current year.

The pandemic came a year too soon for Ocado retail, we all know that. Ocado retail had huge demand, like all other online grocery delivery providers but they didn't have the delivery slots. Tesco, Sainsbury etc could throw bodies at the problem via store picking. Ocado couldn't magic extra robots/warehouses in a short time period.

This year Ocado retail's app has been down for a considerable period. Their website has had huge queues. All because they haven't had the slots to meet the demand this year.

Next year and thereafter is a whole different story. Huge ramp up in capacity for Ocado retail over the next year. I am absolutely sure Ocado will be back up near or at the top of next year's survey and all the surveys thereafter.

Ok, let's see what the market thinks on Monday....

Solid performance from Ocado shares on Friday. Up until UK close the Nasdaq was around 2% lower and US treasury bond yields were rising sharply. Ocado shares shrugged that off for the first time in a while and didn't sink with the overall tech market.

Nasdaq then completely reverses after UK close and finished around 4% up and bond yields fell.

Of course all sorts can change but it looks like it will be a good up day for Ocado shares on Monday...

Agreed Gio, Seems Ocado retail have heard local concerns and made the appropriate concessions to go 100% electric. The site is an industrial estate so there could be far more polluting tenants than Ocado retail.

Ocado are getting the negative press/ campaign but this issue is a joint Ocado/Marks Spencers venture, as is all UK Ocado retail.

Well put Ney. Ocado have world leading knowledge in online grocery solutions. Significant investments in vertical farming, robotics with already existing multi billion dollar clothing clients, drone technology, Magway investment - hyperloop style delivery via tunnels, robotic chef - Karakuri.

They have mastered the hardest online delivery challenge. Groceries with their multi temperature, fragile, different shapes, huge range. When they break through into other sectors they will find they can make fast inroads due to their vast robotics/Ai knowledge base.

Agreed Ney, good to have you on the board.

The markets are swaying but Ocado seems to have some strength relative to the bleak overall market today. Low price attracting buyers back in. I am positive for reasons previously stated below :

- Recent 2 large share purchases after annual results by Ocado directors at £26/27 a share
- Good possibility of new overseas Ocado Solutions contracts being signed when travel bans are eased.
- Recent Kantar grocery sales show superb growth for Ocado retail
- I believe recent falls are overdone given the impressive annual results
- Possible online sales tax a known issue for some time. Issue factored into current share price to a large extent
- Ocado now has a strengthened management team in the new chairman and CFO

(Overall tech market and bond yields are dragging on Ocados share price more than I thought though currently.)

Good advice midlandboy. You are asking Jimmy when the share price will start to rise again. Noone can predict that precisely. Personally I do not look at investing in terms of time. I look upon it in terms of confidence. If I am happy with a company I sit on the shares for long periods. I research daily for any news good or bad. If my confidence drops to a low level then I look at selling the shares.

If you think in terms of time, ie wanting share x to get to share price y, then so many things can knock a share off course, pandemics, politics, warehouse fires etc etc.

It's been a crazy year of investment rises and falls. Each of us has missed or bailed out early on some cracking opportunities. Try not to beat yourself up over that. IAG going back many months wasn't a certain rise. Many issues were unanswered.

Kroger quarterly results are out today at 3pm UK time. There's a live webcast at 3pm. Always worth watching and looking for Ocado related info on how the Kroger-Ocado partnership is progressing etc. Are they wanting to ramp up the CFC build programme faster? etc etc..

http://ir.kroger.com/CorporateProfile/default.aspx

Kroger already own 5% of Ocado Group.

It's a very volatile share. You will see that a similar drop occured from £29 at end of Sept 2020 to £21/22 in Oct/Nov 2020. On the flip side there have been numerous big rises up.

Cheers for your kind words. When this board is at its best we all try to help each other. Obviously noone holding the shares likes to see the share price dropping.

Exactly midlandboy. My Ocado shares dropped to a loss for the first year I held them, at times a loss of 50%> After that they rose. Jimmyroyal, if though you are not sure about Ocado you should think about selling as I posted before. If you are stressing greatly over daily moves things could get very tough for you.

It may easily drift further down. However I personally see the current share price as attractive.

Partly that. Lot of stock rotation occuring. Overdone in my book. Looks a good opportunity currently.

True chilting, that increasing revenue is very valuable, costs though are going to be high for several years. They will also need to borrow whenever a new overseas contract is signed. Capital raises to finance new contracts will be well received by the market but the terms offered by Ocado will have to be more tempting than before as bond yields rise.

I believe Ocado has been hit too hard by the current tech storm for the many reasons I stated. One of my reasons though for topping up was that I believed bond yield rises were levelling off. This is under pressure currently. They rose yesterday but are down so far today.

Tim Steiner was a bond trader at Goldman Sachs for 8 years prior to being Ocado CEO. He has expert knowledge of the markets that are rocking the boat. He's managed the financing of Ocado superbly so far. Ocado raised £1bill last June (realistically the maximum amount they could raise then). Many brokers remarked at the time why does Ocado need the cash as it already had £1bill in the bank? It makes a lot of sense in hindsight, that raise would be a lot more costly and less popular if it was announced today rather than last June. The extra cash flow raised at a very low rate locks in low finance costs for Ocado over the next year/2 years.

Ocado group do have their crown jewel of half the Ocado retail joint venture. It's worth somewhere around £1.75bill. Many buyers would be interested were it for sale. At some point in the future this sale will provide a big boost to finances.

Many aspects of Ocado group are still misunderstood and its future potential I don't believe is factored into the current share price.

Best to all.

Yes, share price has risen as the 10 year treasury yield has fallen in last hour, see below.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx