Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I`m afraid that to me ~ `Looks like`~ the usual trading pattern :
There still seem to be a steady flow of c. 200/300/500 sells .
As mentioned before 240 M new shares take some shifting and I suspect we are still seeing the consequences of the raise in the red column with not enough enthusiasm to pick up the slack , or the buyer(s) shrewd enough to manage their entry .
This situation will most definitely change .
VGLA
~ " The Programme has been structured to provide cashflow surety related to the Company's senior debt obligations, as well as to materially derisk funding requirements for the proposed upcoming drilling campaign " ~
This illustrates a very shrewd management of this business and the fact that BP have demonstrated both interest and commitment is a serious endorsement to the quality and value in this business .
I am surprised that we have been pegged at c. 7p for so long
and
I am surprised that Friday`s `Blip` wasn`t a lot higher .
~~~ Just a question of time , I can`t find a stronger candidate for a very serious gain on AIM .
How High ? Anyone`s guess !
(Will probably start next week )
VGLA
~ " They have lodged their talons into the buttocks of our company " ~
LOL !
I had believed that the current `malaise` or more realistically 7p stagnation is a consequence of several issues :
* The 26th Feb CR has not been easily digested .
* In the absence of associated immediate supporting news 240,000,000 New shares take some shifting .
* Following the meteoric rise to c. 8p during 2021 , many investors at the 1p/2p/3p have clearly taken profits ,
* These new shares have placed an additional accommodation challenge for the market .
* A news blackout and serious delays to the CPR release have compounded a desirability issue .
* Consistent selling of c. 250k / 300 / 500k has smothered share progress .
* The above ~ among other issues seems to have sullied credibility and support for the business amongst some PI`s .
* Frustrated investors seeking more attractive options , particularly in the O&G sector with oil above $100 .
But ~ you may have got to the bottom of these issues !
There may be something more ars ey going on !
Perhaps we will be rid of the constipation next week !
~~~ sorry ;)
Anyway , whatever the past , I remain even more confident of the future .
CH might be Canonised next week !
VGLA
It`s all there :
https://youtu.be/YkADj0TPrJA
Perhaps not tonight , but ~~~ " Hold On " !
and
https://youtu.be/NNC0kIzM1Fo
Yep ! `Love is in the Air` The K/K Show (Katie , Kolin Show) and the magic is still there !
Love it ~~~ VGLA :)
Cont ~~~
Ok , I don`t profess to know the answers , but you can safely bet that CH and the BoD know exactly what`s going on !
My feeling is that we are somewhere between a JV (possibly crypto related) , A full T/O , or just going it alone to build and further prove value potential .
Probably a JV , or T/O is crucially dependent on the detail in the CPR .
I don`t think that there is anything unhealthy been going on , I just think the business valuation has been managed and protected .
As a consequence , so has our investment .
I do think CH has our best interests at heart if for no other reason they are also his . He owns c. 12% of this business !
BUT, whatever the report does say I remain hugely confident that ZPHR will go from strength to strength this year .
Publication ? Perhaps next week at which point we should see the bigger picture in much more detail .
V VGLA !
Okay guys :
I just don`t know what has been going on here , nor do I think there are many negatives to arrest future progress .
I am just VERY curious because we`ve been going through an unusual period of silence from the Company .
Here`s my conspiracy theory for your consideration over the weekend ( If you`re interested ! ) ~~~
Please dismiss / criticise or correct as you see fit !
* Success at 16-2 , for various known reasons was not followed by an expected (hoped for) revaluation .
* Proof of concept proved not proof enough .
* Perhaps CH expected an early take out which did not materialise .
* Initial testing raised Gas issues and production control and suspension .
* Gas control / connection required before full oil recovery available .
* CPR then required to underpin full PB potential , value and profitability .
* Fearing a lack of third party interest plan `B` is perhaps to `go it alone` .
* Serious funding therefore required .
* Cash raise at 5p + 28M Debt facility .
* To raise 12M the share price of almost 8p had to be harpooned , hence abnormal discount to 5p .
* At 5p and likely privileged knowledge of future potential would be `No risk` investment for cash provider .
* Fearing the raise be undersubscribed TPI take the stock , plus that stock set aside for PI`s .
* Oil price starts to soar making future stock value rise .
* Controlled price and controlled release of stock , therefore bigger gain on 5p cost .
* Since the Jan raise there has been limited PI buying (and selling) . We have enough !
* Should a T/O materialise TPI ( or ANOther ) remain in a win / win position .
* The management team are effectively Competent Persons in their own right .
* The initial CPR (if there was one) perhaps missed some crucial detail .
* This was implied by CH with his comments about `working with the information provided by ZPHR`.
* Today is the first day we`ve seen a reasonable tick up in volume .
* There seems to be an unlimited supply of stock . Where is that coming from ?
* Every time there`s a buy c. 250/300/500 or 600 pops up as an unknown or or a sell .
* I believe this `Management` has been going on since January .
* The MM`s don`t hold stock ( mainly Shore Cap for ZPHR) so do they go to TPI , if not then WHO ?
TBC ~~~
~ A somewhat muted response to the excellent RNS today , but that`s not so unusual in this murky AIM market .
What I find strange is the ongoing trading pattern .
As mentioned a couple of days ago we just do not know who bought or who may continue to hold a large proportion of the 240,000,000 new shares issued .
It seems that every time there is a little flurry of buying it`s countered by these repetitive 250 k sells , I just don`t think that the 5p share issue has as yet been sold / bought in full .
This would be most unusual (legal ? ) but I wonder if the Broker Turner Pope Investments (TPI) Limited could be holding a large portion of the new shares ? Certainly leaking them out at a gradually increasing sp would prove very profitable , but the mystery of WHO took them all , and why there were virtually none available at launch for private investors at 5p , has me scratching my head . I`m not certain about the declaration legalities surrounding Broker holdings , normally they just do not like to and do not hold large positions .
Suppose they were and are still expecting some buyout , they could make an exceptional gain .
Typical Murky AIM , but at least we are on the right trajectory .
VGLA
Yes , must be at least 55 M GBP . How quickly can they bring the PB into production and what are they going to / doing with all the gas ?
I`m begining to see the jig saw , well at least we`ve got the bottom left hand corner !
At last ~ some fantastic news :
$6 MILLION in March ~ Many more wells coming on stream ~ Surely around 100 M per year
And
We are valued at c.75 M ~~~ LOL !
Watch this go ..
And
I`m very glad that we got this update BEFORE the CPR :))
VGLA
I also share your view Adon 30 .
Since 26th Jan 5p placing the Company has been engulfed in a fog of mystery , quite the contrary to the previous regular and open communication from CH .
Most important , we don`t know who bought and who holds a large proportion of the 240,000,000 new shares issued . Although as you would expect the sp slipped to the placing price , but the traded volume since then seems to have been unexceptional and I don`t think that large share issue has as yet been sold / bought in full .
Perhaps a few more have been leaking out recently , cleverly positioned as "Unknown".
Very frustrating that your investment has been subjected to so much conjecture as a result of so little information flow for such a long period of time .
It`s even difficult to put four corners of this jig saw in the correct position . I hope that CH will soon just show us the picture on the front of the box so that we don`t need to waste any more time looking for `Bits that Fit` !
VGLA
" I sold a couple of weeks ago and bought into 13e I don't like delays and the market isn't signalling anything positive especially US "
We all know .
You moaned on here about the delay day after day .
As you aren`t " signaling anything positive " (quite the contrary) one could be forgiven for believing this is a poor attempt to destabilise support so you may reenter at your sell price . Shame if that is your intention . A more dignified contribution might earn respect , but most people who sell simply leave the discussion and certainly don`t return with unsettling criticism .
Most investors on here are frustrated by the delay but they believe in the prospects for the business and in the Management team . We are waiting patiently for the expected news to have a very positive and beneficial effect on the Company and its valuation .
Good luck with your i3e investment .
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
31-Mar-22 10:03:50 5.81 500,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 29.05k O
31-Mar-22 15:18:32 5.84 400,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 23.36k O
31-Mar-22 14:04:16 5.80 500,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 29.00k O
31-Mar-22 14:26:41 5.80 707,017 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 41.01k O
31-Mar-22 08:15:13 5.81 500,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 29.05k O
31-Mar-22 08:13:32 5.8758 500,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 29.38k O
31-Mar-22 14:18:12 5.99 500,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 29.95k O
31-Mar-22 11:25:40 5.80 700,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 40.60k O
31-Mar-22 14:16:38 5.95 500,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 29.75k O
01-Apr-22 17:05:42 6.05 41,063 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 2,484 O
01-Apr-22 16:45:47 6.08 309,087 Buy* 6.00 6.10 18.79k O
01-Apr-22 16:26:40 6.05 21,063 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 1,274 O
01-Apr-22 16:24:42 6.05 21,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 1,271 O
01-Apr-22 15:28:35 6.05 586 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 35.45 O
01-Apr-22 15:18:57 6.05 150 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 9.08 O
01-Apr-22 15:12:17 6.00 5,000 Sell* 6.00 6.10 300.00 O
01-Apr-22 14:35:54 6.05 248 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 15.00 O
01-Apr-22 14:33:26 6.00 18,448 Sell* 6.00 6.10 1,107 O
01-Apr-22 14:14:26 6.05 65,000 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 3,933 O
01-Apr-22 14:06:52 6.05 82,496 Unknown* 6.00 6.10 4,991 O
You`re not wrong about that ThirdTL , although I do hope that you are !!!
That theory would go some way to explaining :
The Total Silence , The 6p price peg , The lack of production figures , and perhaps The strange unknowns !
CH said he would sell IF the price was right , even at 100% I would be a little disappointed with 12p ,
but I suppose those fortunate enough to be invested at 1p/2p/3p would be in clover , and being realistic 12p would likely be a result for the business at this stage of its development .
ATB
Ok ! I don`t see events quite that way .
Just focusing on the non op side of the business , I`m hoping (believe) that since the 5p raise the oil price has moved from c. 70p to a staggering c 130p and steady back at c. 100p , I don`t see 70p any time soon . In addition we have 12M cash , and a 29M debt facility . I`m hoping that when Q1 figures are announced (Perhaps by end og April) we will find that the Company is awash with cash .
Now , the issue is ; what are they doing / going to do with the PB and is some third party involved with their forward plans .
I accept that the wait is frustrating ~ for everyone ~ and I expect that includes CH and his team , who have a serious financial interest in the business.
We have no idea for the real reasons and their forward plans ~ YET !
We Do know that there are many positives engulfing this story .
VGLA
"Could of taken the whole placing a 5p if they wanted"
ERrrr ~ ~ No !
That would not have been possible for multiple reasons .
No point in speculating about these weeks of large late reported trades . They may be positives , going forward I dont think they will prove to be negatives . Remember CH was unable to participate in the raise !
While somewhat unusual , to say the least in this case , a TR1 is not required until an order placed , at a specific price , has been completed and filled . If I was interested in some Partnership or J/ V etc , I would certainly wish to have a stake in the business and if I knew the SP was going to rocket on the release of the news I would be , legitimately , be acquiring a holding .
What is a little disappointing is this slow drift downward , BUT , this is often absolutely typical share price behaviour in advance of some major positive event . I had hoped we would have been higher before `The RNS` .
On the other hand there are `Many` who would be well in profit both pre and post the 5p raise .
These are troubled times and cash is king (as always!)
These machinations are all a mystery at the moment , they may remain that way .
Fun though , ain`t it !!
VGLA
I`m firmly in the camp that believes 6p is a financial cornerstone in some forthcoming corporate arrangement .
Observations of the `Trading` this year apart and the huge increase in the oil price alone would by any conservative measurement mean that the non op contributions alone , which were obtained when the oil price range was c. $40 / $75 , must be making an vastly increased contribution to the bottom line .
The current Market Cap , 100 M , is surely now wildly out of line and I agree that the higher production and higher prices must be factored in when `The News` final breaks .
I hope we will not be waiting for 1st Q results due at the end of April !
VGLA.
ps : How curious that the recent minimal trading has effectively come to a virtual standstill now that we are back at 6p ;)
~ I thought I would repost this comment , is that I have modified my point of view (Slightly!)
" RE: Yet Again!08 Mar 2022 13:10
Yes ~ The manipulation to control any sustained rise is VERY transparent .
fwiw , I regard this ongoing situation as as a serious positive .
My thoughts are that this is linked to the delays in the CPR .
To avoid conflict with the regulators it would be possible to ask Sproule to `Go back and check that ~~"
Or ; `Have another look at this area ` Or ; `We have some additional information to give you `.
ie ; There are likely to be means available to delay receipt of the `Complete` report .
Why would CH wish to do that ?
My feeling is that the project in total is far too big and far too complex for ZPHR to go it alone .
I would not be surprised at all to learn that some partnership / JV is being finalised .
The current Global situation has probably complicated further the ongoing discussions and created additional delays.
A tantalising situation which I am convinced will conclude with a spectacular outcome for shareholders .
Just a question of waiting for confirmation and the detail . "
I feel I have been making these same comments for months , but i sense that something has changed , and something is also about to change !
The stock has been a traders ` Must Participate` since the begining of the year . Since The CH statement 7th March , Traders Spivs , and MM`s have been on a `No Lose` junket . With small volumes and expectations of The RNS tomorrow , it would seem they have been able to walk the sp up and down at will . I am not claiming to be 100% correct , but those who watch the trades out of the corner of their eye might just agree .
I sense that this is fast becoming a very risky pastime , because The RNS could , at last , be very close .
I have also modified another aspect of my assessment of the situation here :
While I am convinced that corporate activity is an element of the forthcoming news flow , I now believe that the financial element in the news flow will be dramatically higher than even the most bullish may have hoped for .
Costs , Production , Revenue , Profit and consequently the Company financial position may exceed the most optimistic estimates .
Don`t get spooked out of your shares ! This might just prove to be the best Market opportunity of the year 2022 .
~~~ fwiw ~~~ Just my opinion .
VGLA .