Is this a worse crisis for stock markets than the covid crisis?11 Oct 2022 19:50
Was reading the discussion between Archie and Sage about this. Funnily enough, Archie and I disagreed on the same topic on the WJG board this morning.
In my opinion Archie, you're not addressing the much tougher times we now live in. The covid crisis was sharp, but it was mercifully short. You remind us how bad things looked during those awful early weeks, but you don't give enough credence to the huge monetary stimulus (interest rates near zero, massive QE) and fiscal stimulus (furlough and other support schemes) that were about to hit the economy almost as soon as we were locked down. No wonder markets rebounded rapidly and consumers felt flush with all that govt money that they couldn't spend!
Coming off that sugar rush and dealing with the consequent inflation is a big part of this crisis. And this time, in these inflationary conditions, there is no monetary stimulus or wall of fiscal support coming to the rescue. Monetary policy is tightening fast and as regards fiscal support, you saw the market reaction when our esteemed Chancellor attempted to get unfunded tax cuts through. No problem when we had a compliant B of E, waiting to gobble up all that new govt debt, but now, can't happen, not when we're back to relying on the 'kindness of strangers' to buy our debt. When we do reach the bottom, there will be a bounce for sure, but it will be nothing like the speed and strength of the post-covid bounce that we all enjoyed 2 years ago.
I'm also not sure you'll be proven right in believing that inflation will quickly subside to 2%, many smart people think inflation will be 'sticky' and become embedded in wage expectations. And even if you are right that inflation falls fast, it will only be because central banks have had to engineer a recession, so high will they have had to raise interest rates. The Fed have already indicated they are prepared to do this, btw. And I'm not even mentioning the Ukraine war, de-globalisation, post-covid supply chain issues and shocking politics. This is a multi-faceted crisis that is much harder to navigate a way out of than the covid one and we'll be living with it for years in my opinion.
Anyway, I could easily keep writing as there's much more to say, as I'm a lapsed economist, but I better stop. Good luck whatever you do.