Member Info for uncertain

I'd never thought of Trump as Thor before. Where's Odin when you need him?

has been predicted for a long time. I don't see it as imminent. Gold will probably rise on the back of uncertainty about trade wars, and no doubt the renewed relaxation on financial controls over the banking system will result in another meltdown - probably in the 2020s and that will also help gold. Cryptocurrencies are in no position to take over, and are largely ponzi schemes. China is still largely a poor and still developing country which will not be strong enough to take over the world's financial markets for decades even if we wanted them to. Russia is corrupt beyond redemption. Europe is looking inward. No doubt there will be some fracturing of world financial markets as Asia slowly increases its power. Will it end badly? Probably, there will be a new financial crisis. Protectionism looks to be on the rise which is rarely good news, particularly if it is competitive. However I think the US dollar will continue to be the basis for the world's financial system throughout the 2020s and probably the 2030s as well. I can't tell about the 2040s but I shall be in my 90s by then and happy to leave it to the next generation. Ask yourself - what is the credible alternative to the dollar system. I can't see one on the horizon

As I think I posted a little while ago, UK debt was over 200% of GDP when I was born. This fell to about 40% at the turn of the century. It has of course risen since then to about 89%, but will no doubt slowly fall in the 2020s. In the USA the ratio has now risen above 103% which is a little higher than France (about 98%), not as high as Italy (135%),and well below Japan (243%). International interest rates are currently well below those in the second half of the 20th century. The poiint I am making here is that the USA is not massively out of line with other "western" countries. They seem to be adding to their debt faster than other countries which will push them up the league tables. The real problem for the USA is not their national debt, but the amount of dollars out there in the world economy, being used to finance the world's trade, and in some cases entire economies that have lost faith in their own currencies. If the role of the US dollar as the de facto world currency ends, these dollars may return. They are effectively a debt of the USA to the rest of the world. I found one estimate of $10 trillion in 2013 for the size of this problem. However, I don't think the system of using the dollar as the world currency is about to end. There doesn't seem to be a credible alternative at present.

a little during the course of the day, but on very thin trading. Quite re-assuring really. Nobody seems in a massive hurry to sell CASP. Today was never going to be a big day for buys.

I think it todays market activity is across an the board reaction to fears about a possible US China trade war. The whole market falls in these circumstances, with the exception of gold mining stocks, and shares with a high beta value like KAZ fall further. After the panic comes the analysis. If the Chinese economy slows down because of a trade war, then the demand for copper there could easily fall. If the world economy slows down, ditto. It is important to think about this in terms of the changing technologies, particularly electric vehicles, which is pushing demand in the opposite direction. My view is that, depending on how this plays out, KAZ may have further to fall, along with other miners. I am currently not invested here, having chosen to lose my money on a different share entirely. In the long term, however, I am confident that KAZ will be over �10

may reflect the general downward movements in stock markets in the USA in reponse to Trump's protectionist (some would say justified) moves against China. The FTSE has started with a further drop today, cementing it's move below the psychologically important 7000 mark, and O&G and mining stocks are all moving down. I think traders will be looking to protect themselves against this gathering storm and sectoral switches may be the order of the day. Gold miners started the day up for instance. I will adjust my wish for the day to say that I will be happy to stay over 10p today, in what may be a difficult day for the entire market.

I don't know if we will reach 12p today. As the market opens, the task is get back over 11p first! I would be happy with a solid finish over 11p today. Slow and steady till the next good RNS, with a few fall backs with any bad RNSs on the way.

Sorry coffeecups, I should have put a smiley face at the end :-)

Coffeecups, I have called myself uncertain, because I like uncertain situations. The market hates uncertain situations and prices down shares in this position excessively. The way to make money from shares is to find shares underpriced in this way, preferably just before the uncertainty is removed. I am certain that CASP is about to have its uncertainty removed. Probably not all at once. Maybe not for a few months. But reasonably soon. I bought KAZ at 100p and CEY at 38p. OK I also bought AFREN. You can't win them all!

The buy price topped out about 11.5 and is now easing back a little. You can no longer sell at 11. A little consolidation is taking place and that is to be expected. Perhaps a further little move forward this afternoon?

11p. I have to agree that 12p is likely to go today, if not this morning. it will be interesting to see how far this share can go without another RNS. Of course, when the RNS comes it will probably go back down again.... but there's always the next RNS after that which may be very good!

FK, I am very positive on this share, but don't you the $346m free cash flow figure is very much a best scenario and is unlikely to be achieved? If they achieve half of that then they will have done well, and the sp should be around 50p. That's a forecast that people can take seriously and will persuade people to buy. The best case scenario does not seem believable to me. Meanwhile there looks to be a stedy but strong start to the day. Into the 11s today and maybe 12 by the end of the week

10.9 on the BBC

Good to see are still here, Bottled, since you encouraged me to come on here in the first place. My average is over 12, as I got carried away with irrational exuberance last week. I am happy to wait a little while to breakeven, then I can relax a little more as we wait for the deeps

Indeed. Once again today, a firm buy quote is unavailable. The indicative price has two ones in it. It would be going up faster but some of the wobbly holders are still offloading, relieved to have mitigated their losses on Monday by a little. As a result, the average level of resolve among remaining holders is stiffening fast.

.... is currently not available.

10p. i am not suggesting you should, but you can. Quite a wide spread up to the buy price as well, so plenty of fuel in the tank for this afternoon.

slowly this morning. A nice gentle upward trend is much healthier than last week's hysteria. I don't see much point in selling at present as a slow improvement looks likely, and there remains the chance of a boost next month. Very few people believe the hype in the February presentation, but also I think it unlikely that none of the deeps will deliver this year.

The board won't be the same without you

They ended up above 10p yesterday but I think you could buy below 10p particularly in the morning. In any case, no ramping intended. We seem to have stabilised in the low 9.80s for buys today. A little stability will do us good. I am hoping for a gradual rise after the wobbly holders get picked off. Nothing dramatic now, in my opinion, until there is some good news. Sometime in April if we are lucky.