Member Info for uncertain

OK only just over 10p, and limited volume, but fairly stable nevertheless.

according to LSE anyway, with a slow rise in price paid and an effective spread on dummy sales below 1%.

are listed as buys, the vast majority around 10.2p. The problem is that there are just not that many of them and most of them are of quite a modest size. The spread when checked by dummy transactions for small amounts appears to be below 2% rather than the 6.5% advertised on this board. Nobody seems to be in a rush to sell at these levels today, but there isn't enough volume as yet to get the share moving either. I think a slow growth in value this month as a people gradually get on board for a punt at the next RNS, but nothing dramatic without news. If the news turns out to be discouraging, I forsee a drop back towards 9p, but not less than this as good news could still come over the summer. If there is anything that could be described as good news, I think we should see 15p-20p. I'm still patiently waiting

Kaz's customer is China. Its ability to get its product into China will be unaffected by any US China trade war. The main impact would be a fall in the copper price if demand fell, but there are other factors increasing the demand for copper, notably electric cars in the medium future. In the mean time shares rise and fall, often together, in response to the latest collective irrational exuberance, or despair

The whole market is moving up as the DOW bounces back from the trade war wobble. When the market moves, KAZ moves further. Glad to be wrong, for the sake of LTH. I am also benefitting from this shift this morning, but in another share. KAZ is difficult to predict. movements in copper stocks is what I use.

about 1.2% up, possibly in response to the DOW bounce back yesterday. With the ISA season upon us as well, I think we should be pushing at an open door towards the end of this week

at the top end of the "official" spread

I meant below �8 of course! I should also say I am currently out of KAZ

LME copper stocks have been rising and are currentlyat their highest levels since September 2016. Until this trend is reversed then the price of copper is unlikely to recover much. The continuing strengthening of the pound against the US dollar also means any dollar profits are worth less in pounds - so the pound value of KAZ can be expected to fall when these two trends are combined. The trade war is a further complication. I think it is possible that KAZ will dip below 38 again, but long term I think it will eassily go above �10

publications listed on this site from yesterday, nearly all of them buys. Only 4 CASP transactions are listed today, three of them buys (but one for only �18.04). The sale was for only 673 shares. I wonder if there will be some delayed publication trades next week from today? Very thin trading, in any case. Hardly any selling but buying also weak. perhaps interest will perk up after Easter in expectation (or fear) of the next RNS

cc, the P/E I had a stab at was for FK's numbers from the February. The P/E at present is anybody's guess

FK just used free cash flow ("planned" at $346m) to have a go at valuing the company. For a proper P/E valuation net profit would have to be calculated. This would need to adjust for the difference between capital spend and depreciation and also allow for the taxation of profits. My guess would be that this would come out at a conservative P/E around 10. That's complicated enough for me at this stage of the proceedings

share price at the top of this page agreed with the share price on the intraday chart? Flawless, $3b is not an unreasonable target market cap if all goes to plan. Since they don't have a great record on delivering to plan, perhaps we could start by thinking about $1b as a starter. That would put as at about 40p per share. I think that may be achievable by the end of the year. This share is a slow, low investment, reasonably low risk share which requires patience but will probably lift off sometime this year. I can wait. No doubt the doubters will come on here and mock me for the low risk statement, so I will restate what I asked yesterday. How much oil do we have to access in the deeps to move this share up to 15p? I think one working well should do this easily and give us all a 50% bonus on today's share price. Looks like a no brainer to me.

But now back below your sell price

I would be fairly happy with 15p. This is the point I am making. Only a very small level of success with the deeps makes a fair profit on this share at these sp levels

This company has been valued at 8.4p based on the shallows alone. If we fall to that level, that would be a drop of 1.1p from the current LSE quoted price, or a downside of a little over 10%. I am not saying that the share would never fall below 8.4p, but I am saying it would always bounce back to this level The upside is dependent on the success of accessing the deeps as everyone here knows. Based on the figures in the February, a reasonable valuation of �1 or more has been suggested for the company. Even if only half of that is achieved, then we get to 50p The upside is somewhere between 400% and 900% on quite conservative assumptions. Now I know many of you have been here rather a long time and the company has not met expectations over quite a long period. Nevertheless these are quite good odds. Is the market really saying that the odds of accessing the deeps are roughly between 40:1 and 90:1 against? Is the market really saying the odds are almost the same as Foinavon winning the 1967 Grand National?

just after lunch. Remember them from last week? Good to know they're back

Copper stocks levels are high. The $ price of copper has been falling accordingly. The dollar itself has fallen against the pound. The markets remain jittery. So I think you have got out at a sensible price. I am looking for a further drop before considering getting back in. But of course we may both be wrong. I have been quite a few times! Sometimes I've had to admit on here.

I think some people have held until the end of last week and then concluded the share is not going anywhere at present and have decided to take their profits / cut their losses and try their luck elsewhere. There are not many of them. My view is that the the whole market is a bit flakey at the moment and you are better off in a share like this rather than one which moves with the market.

The price will probably drift down a little until it attracts the interest of a few buyers. Personally I am sitting on my hands till the end of April