Member Info for uncertain

is at its highest level since mid September last year, due to the retrace on the �/$ rate recently. This is the pog that matters as the cey sp is in �. This should partially offset the fall in output, but usually the market takes longer to notice this. Some further small drops seem likely to me before a small recovery

I'm not trading at the moment, just holding. Looking once a week is quite enough. Also trying to control my OCD!

out there when we get over 10p, despite the moderately good news. I have adopted the approach of looking at this about once a week, hence not posting very often. Small bits of bad news won't persuade me to sell. I'm not buying any more as I am already overloaded here. Checking once a week will sometimes give me a nice surprise!

in this unexpected drop. I have been out for a little while, but will be looking at these low prices. As others have suggested, it could go a little lower. My main investment is currently CASP which had a mildly encouraging RNS this morning, with the possibility of more to come over the next few months. Quite a risky investment but might be worth a look for those disillusioned here

put money in here as yet until the uncertainty over the deeps is resolved. Many PIs are not prepared to take the risks involved here. Those of us willing to take the chance will get a very good return if the deeps are accessed, but a relatively small loss if they are not. The market dislikes uncertainty, which may be greatly to our advantage

for people who have been following previous RNSs closely. The market as a whole doesn't do that of course, so for anyone out there who wants to interpret these results, the important bits are virtually debt free, and intending to pay dividends as soon as is financially possible. The international prices for some oil from July should put us in profit next year, although much of that will no doubt be spent on increased development expenditure to begin with

This the company I was talking about earlier. I think you can only invest in them through debentures http://geothermalengineering.co.uk/about.php

I think that there is some possibility of geothermal energy in Cornwall. I get adverts from some guy who wants to tell me all about "Royal Oil" which I think is the same thing, but its one of those interminable reel you in but tell you little jobs with some kind of commission to bite you with at the end, which i have never troubled to get to. I think you are absolutely right that renewables are the future, and you get a nice little ethical investment buzz out of it as well. Let me know if you find anything useful

Hi Bottled, I'm out of KAZ at present (perhaps unwisely) and have put a large number of my eggs in this basket (case?). Thanks for the reminder of you kind offer. I haven't any plans to be down south at present, but will let you know if I am coming down.

(long distance funeral) and have missed all the excitement. No actual good news, but no disasters either. I am more than happy to sit here and wait for the next episode of this soap

No, constructing in raised beds at the moment, using recycled beams from my house ( the previous owner tried to turn it into a cottage, when it was quite clearly a high ceilinged Victorian house. I'm constructing it as a pyramid with one triangle inside another, which in turn is surrounded by the main raised bed which is also roughly triangular. The angles are a bit tricky. Amazing what you can find to do with your time when you are retired. The alcohol comes later when I don't need a clear head

I beg your pardon I was in the garden

May 15th as last year, and the the RNS comes with it, we are looking at Tuesday week. The sp is moving around a litle today, and with some large buys recently, the next week could be very interesting. With MJF, expect increased production over the next financial year as the rolling programme of wells starts in July with international prices

said, I am still out of CEY, but I keep up with the posts on the board and wish you all well. I may buy some shares later in the year

Correct me if I'm wrong on this one, but my understanding was the local price was $20, but that didn't include costs, whereas the international price quoted was $40, but that was after costs and after allowing for the 80:20 split between international and local sales. If that is right, then it should be at least twice 6.4 - a little more I think. Plus there is a rolling programme of new wells starting in July on the MJF structure, so production should slowly ramp up there. As I've said before, I think 15p is a minimum for September. Of course 2p per 1000bpd is just a rule of thumb. There is the question of reserves in the MJF structure. Some possibles have to become probables for a good working life for the area

Smasher, your figures on profits are plausible for international prices, but we don't move to international prices on all wells / areas at the same time. You are right in the long run, but the profits will be less than this in January. Exactly how big they are would depend on the distribution of oil coming from each of the main areas. There are two stages to price recovery in my view. If we can demonstrate a good flow from a series of wells in the MJF structure at international prices from July then a modest uplift can be expected, maybe in the 15-20p range. The second stage is proving the feasibility of the deeps, and this is where the really big gains become possible. Some gains will come from initial flow, but we need 3 months flow for the share pice to really motor. These stages will probably come the other way round, with news on the deeps in May /June July, and news on progress in the MJF structure coming in August onwards. The difficult news comes first and that is why patience is needed here, but by September I would be very surprised if we are not above 15p. Much higher prices are of course possible. And lower!

Absolutely agree with you bull, over the long period of time you talk about with international prices and with confidence about the flow. If anything I would put it a little higher. The problem is confidence in CASP. One good piece of news may not be able to overcome this confidence problem.

5000bpd at the $40 net figure given in the February presentation (based on $70 poo, 80% international prices less costs) gives an addition to net profits of about $73m in a full year, which is an an increase in yield of about 3p a share It depends which field the oil comes from, as only the MJF structure gets international pricing from July. In areas the profit would be substantially less than half of this after costs - perhaps 1p per share If people believed that this was going to flow without interruption then this might result in P/E of 10, leading to a 10p increase outside MJF and up to 30 inside. However, this is CASP and no-one believes that there will be no glitches, or that the money won't be poured down some infeasible well, so 7-10p might be a bit optimistic. Definitely 5p in my view

will tell us about recent progress across the board, but the main good news should come in late summer when the rolling programme of new wells in the MJF structure start to yield results (or not). If news is poor in the next RNS, this likely to be about continuing problems with the deeps. Such problems may or may not be resolved during the good weather period in 2018, but the MJF structure seems likely to produce good results at international prices.

There is understandable impatience on this board for an RNS. As time goes by, the chances of the RNS turning up one morning increase. I thought April would see one (Monday still possible) ; if not, I know May will definitely see one. When it comes, I am fairly sure it will have a mixture of good and bad news. The chances of the share price going up rather than down are fairly good in my opinion, but the devil will be in the detail. I am with FK on the dilution, but on the other hand, someone does seem to be operating to keep the share pprice in a fairly tight channel, and I am not sure how to interpret that. Patience is a hard argument to use with LTH, but I am not in that category so I am willing to wait it out over the summer.