Member Info for TWatcher

"I think anyone can make the antibody test - it's in the pubic domain I think due to the nature of the crisis. (I think that's right)."

So you think anybody in the world has the right to manufacture the RTC antibody test ?
I think that's very wrong, and factually incorrect.

LFT antigen testing....ODX doesn't have one.

Countries may demand local manufacturing.

I assume the consortium owns the IP for the test ?

"£1M for materials? Where do you get this information from, it's obviously incorrect. Omega have only paid to expand facilities, they certainly wont be paying for materials to make the tests, that's absurd."

There's about 4 different things wrong with that, which is quite the acheivement given it's only two sentences.

1) "Where did you get the £1M from", answer the abingdon Prospectus, I quote:-
"the Group agreed with the DHSC that it would receive support in the procurement of raw materials to manufacture the finished goods. The Group has received nearly £1 million of cash up front for this contract, which is shown as a contract liability in note 19"
Haven't you been reading the posts the last several days, that £1M up front for materials was mentioned several time.

2) "Its obviously incorrect"
... I refer you to the above.

3) "they certainly wont be paying for materials to make the tests".
Many here are postulating that ODX (and the consortium generally)are using their capacity to full, including making RTC tests without orders., i.e. above the 175K which is the only order ODX has for the RTC test. We know there are no more confirmed orders from the abingdon prospectus. We know that UK gov have given abingdon £1M for materials. If ODX decides to make tests for which there are no orders, exactly who do you think is going to pay for the materials and production of those tests, given the known financials above. ? We know its not the government....abingdon ?...have you seen their financials ?
4)" Absurd"
....Hmmm

Antigen ?
Antibody ?

"We do not know what they have been producing for stock purposes for instance or for trials"

Indeed.

We in fact no nothing about production, so certainly not in a position to state as fact that production is ramping up, which was the conjecture a few posts up.

But we do know all of the RTC orders, we know how much the UK gov has given the consortium for materials (£1M), we know there is no mologic antigen test yet, and ODX have not told us about Mologic antibody orders, and they are in control of newsflow for that test. one would expect market rules would require any significant orders for the mologic antibody test to be announced. They may be producing tests on the expectation of sales, but knowing that the Gov only provided £1M for materials, this requires ODX to fund this stock build up themselves, using cash. CK also said in the presentation that they would be looking to buy more production kit in December. It would have been nice if the abingdon prospectus had indicated that they were producing in anticipation of RTC orders, but the prospectus made no such mention.

I've previously stated, but is worth restating my concern, that although ODX said a few weeks back that their capacity ramp-up was fully funded, this likely included income from tests they expected to be selling as they went. CK expressed disapointment that the inital RTC order took longer than expect, one has to postulate whether he thought additional orders would have been received by now. completion of the Mologic antigen tech transfer was cited as a pre-christmas potential, or early inJan, but the delay in Mologic acquiring CE approval (a mologic presentation cited Oct as a month for that), by definition adds a corresponding delay to the TT. So has being able to produce the Mologic test been pushed to end of Jan/Beginiing of Feb ?

We should find out exactly about production levels in less than two weeks

“Colin/ odx are ramping up production“

No, they are ramping up production capacity.

We know the plan is to ramp up capacity, and clearly you don’t do that unless you expect a requirement for production to increase.

But we have no stated orders for the mologic antibody test. We have an order for 175k rtc test. And we don’t have a mologic antigen test.

That’s what we KNOW about production.

why is there so much crap posted on this forum. Does no one read other posts.

Someone sees £33M as the amount likely to be subcontracted in a contract, and just assumes all of that goes to ODX.
Did you forget that BBI is also a manufacturing partner. What about Ciga ?
Do you assume that abington is subcontracting at zero profit to them ?

At least think for 1 second before you post crap.

"Why are we so obsessed with MHRA for antibody tests?"

could it be because the abingdon prospectus confirmed that the government has the right to cancel all contracts if MHRA approval does not occured by 25th dec ?

There is not a single kit being sold, no matter how much people want them to be, or find websites proporting to do so.
1) Abingdon prospectus has stated the entire consortium has an order for 1M tests.
2) The uk gov needs to give approval for test to be sold to anyone other than uk. Abingon did not indicate that said approval has been given.
3) if people think that uk gov has given consent after just acquiring 1M, that would be a pretty damning indication of the governments committment to the RTC kit.

So would people please stop posting websites that are selling the kit, they aren't. Some are undoubtedly trying to sell something they dont have. What happened to the one that stated they could 'currently supply 4M a month'. Bit difficult given the above.

Time for result is of itself not an indication of imprecision. Diabetics, for example, are used to having results in seconds about their sugar levels.

I wonder is that anything similar to the app that was in the news a couple of weeks back that analysed your cough and had some good figures.

Delivery for that ‘contract’ was in august.

Those bidstat contracts confuse me, when is a contract not a contract, announcing a contract in Nov that had an aug delivery etc

But the Abingdon prospectus says they have a formal 1M contract, there is a framework for a further 10M with a potential to extend to 15M tests.

Hypermarlin
"On Twatcher's point, there is no way there will need to be 1 for 1 UK RTC for a UK vaccine shot, or similar. "
Many here have expressed an expectation of 2-3 tests per vaccinated person.

Korda
Intresting TWatcher that it’s been deleted by them?

I wasn't sure that it was, my twittering isn't great, but I assume a few better experienced than I have tried to find it by now, and there has been no success reported. In fact the last thing I see from ciga either on facebook or twitter relating to RTC is the oct announcement of the 1M Tests

If it has been deleted, then its for a reason and I'd suggest its because they made up the entire "it's expected....well in excess of 3B RTC tests" thing. You got to remember they are a private company, that brochure is a marketing tool. IMO it is pure hyperbole. I did remark on the day it was published that it was worth noting they said "it was expected", did not attribute that expectation to them, nor did they say who has the expectation. I would suggest that neither ODX, a publicly traded company, nor Abingdon, a company going for an IPO, appreciates an associated company who might be perceived to be in a position of knowledge, indirectly implying billions of pounds of sales for those companies. It is worth noting that the Abingdon IPO prosepectus makes nor reference to any RTC sales numbers beyond a potential 15M (including the 1M already announced). One would expect that if a fellow consortium member can bandy around figures like 3B+, abingdon would be in a position to at least indicate some visibilty for small % of that in a prospectus, which would make the company a lot more attractive.

Then when you have others picking up on the brochue, and turning the "its expected" into "it expects" (i.e. the company expects), it only makes matters worse.
https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/omega-diagnostics-bounces-as-uk-rtc-highlights-rapid-test-as-a-companion-to-covid-19-vaccines/

Its a bit surpriseing that given the high volume of chat that the ciga document generated on here ,that it's sudden disappearing act has generated none. Personally, although it served a temporary purpose for us in that it helped stablish the price, I'd suggest its best to consider that document, or at least that section of it, never existed.

This is the ciga link that I had to the PR piece.
https://twitter.com/cigahealthcare/status/1327236601932632068

Can someone point me to the tweet from ciga that contained their brochure that cite the "its' expected" sentence. I have looked at the various links to it that were posted here. but those links are coming back as unavailable, I'm not big on twitter, so if someone could post a working link to the tweet from ciga, it would be useful.

I know it's an unpopular opinion here, but I'm still unaware of an inextricable link between vaccine deployment and the level of LFT antibody testing that many here are assuming. If there was such a cast-iron, "the deployment is not possible with out it" association between vaccination and antibody testing there is a simply question.

The uk government has pre-ordered 350 million doses of various vaccines, including 100M of the oxford/AZ one, some 6 months ago, at a cost of many many billions.

Where was the same imperative and prepayment for the pre-production of LFT antibody tests. Given that the narrative is that antibody testing is required regardless of which vaccine is/are deployed, the argument for ramp-up and surety of supply of antibody testing is STRONGER than that for any single vaccine. If the gov has paid many billions in advance to allow vaccine to be produced in advance of being confirmed as valid, where is the billions invested in manufacturing capability so that the RTC had 10M a week capacity sitting ready for the design freeze of the oxford LFT antibody test.

All we know that is in the public realm is UK gov has paid towards the development of the RTC test, and has ordered exactly 1M antibody tests (with a possible increase to 15M), and given abingdon £1M for raw materials.

In summmary, the government has pre-ordered 350M vaccines at a many billion pound expense. They've ordered 1M antibody tests, after it was on design freeze.

The comparison in the upfront investment is stark compared to the narrative that one is inextricable linked to the other.

I did ask on here ,either yesterday or the day before, who ciga was citing when they said "it is expected" there will be a need of in excess of 3B RTC LFTs. No one gave me the citation.

Where are you getting the £20 figure from ?

If you scale that up, that’s 240+M tests for uk.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54995012

Towards the bottom of that article

We need that Mologic test CE approved to we can get on with the TT. We are now in the 2nd Half of nov and still no word of it.

What we do know is that Abingdon did not mention any go ahead from the government in their prospectus which was dated 3/11. If Abingdon had such a goahead it would be info that would have had to be included.