Member Info for TWatcher

If you want to delude yourself and others that you are right with some alternate facts, then go right ahead.

You said:"UK RTC already have a contract for first 1m tests plus £10m quid for components for the next batches."

The lead of the consortium put in black and white they have received nearly £1M in cash.
"The Group has received nearly £1 million of cash up front".
They have it in the bank, its in the financial figures under contract liability "£939,512". It's CASH they have that needs to be assigned to a contract, and its just under £1M.

And now you're onto a letter of credit. Do you want a recount of Georgia again ?

zengah filtered, only the 2nd one I have on my list.

"Thanks TWatcher, wasn’t aware of that. Do you think they would? Even a late MHRA approval I think opens more doors than it closes though. Thoughts?"

I have no idea, clearly they thought it was important at the time the contract was signed. But that was months ago, and things change, and just because it's an option, it doesn't mean they will exercise it. But it would be a convenient reason if they needed one.

"No it's £10.3m for components, which makes a lot of tests"

Are you being deliberately vague ? That's the framework contract, just like there is a framework contract for 15M tests.
Abingdon has confirmed they have received £1M, just like they have confirmed they have received an order for 1M units.

It appears rather clear that the money for the raw materials comes in at the same time as the orders. And whether that is the relationship or not, it is absolutely certain that abingdon has received £1M (actually just under £1M), because that is the figure abingdon says.

"In order to mitigate against this, the Group agreed with the DHSC that it would receive support in the procurement of raw materials to manufacture the finished goods. The Group has received nearly £1 million of cash up front for this contract,which is shown as a contract liability in note 19"

"Only an issue if you need to be out before then, and I need to point out it is likely a worst case."

Potentially more of an issue than that.
"Abingdon Health is also applying for regulatory approval for home use with MHRA. If approval is not received by 25 December 2020, the DHSC has the right to cancel all outstanding orders."

"UK RTC already have a contract for first 1m tests plus £10m quid for components for the next batches. That's probably 40m tests+"

They have £1M as you well know for raw materials, as that's what abingdon said. Given they have received £1M for raw materials, and received an order for 1M tests, it's highly logical to conclude that payment for raw materials is commensurate with the placement of orders. Thus far there has been an order for 1M tests.

That's the guy that talks about CD4 as a treatment.

"They have been selling their Vistatech antibody test via screen. Greggs don’t RNS every sausage roll they sell. It’s only contacts they will announce via RNS. Why do people think they are not selling already!"

Greggs are a retailer.
ODX is a manufacturer.
They do distribution deals with companies that work in this field to distribute to suppliers and 'retailers' . They also do supply agreements to anyone that wants to buy volume directly, such as a government or a NGO etc. There has been no RNSs to indicate deals of a price sensitive nature have been done. A deal that resulted in them getting 175K order for the RTC antibody test was considered significant for an RNS. Of course the implication of that at the time was more than just the initial order.

"Happy to be pointed to anything concrete, but my research of MHRA approval is that it will take up to 90 days, but WORKING DAYS. If I recall it was submitted to MHRA on 17 September, so 90 working days would be 25th of January"

I hope you are wrong.

I am well enough researched. Deep refrigeration isn't an issue for ODX, or as far as I am aware, any lateral flow test.

You may as well say be thankful ODX does not use glass vials, as there is apparently a shortage of them for vaccination distribution. Its irrelevant.

does any lateral flow test require deep refrigeration ?

I'm genuinely torn here about ODX fortunes.

On the one hand.

For the 2 tests they can currently make, there doesn't currently seem much appetite. Uk gov ordered 1M at the very last minute, and with the framework extending to 15M, indicating to me their thinking regarding likely requirements. The billions that have been poured into testing overall, and the billions into acquiring vaccine, versus the 3-4 Million that they have paid out so far for antibody testing is a stark contrast. ODX has an antibody test sitting available for anyone in the world to buy (the visitect one), but no word of any orders. Whereas in my opinion any websites saying they can sell the RTC kit are just wrong at this time, I haven't seen as many (any ?) report here of anyone advertising the visitect antbody test, the one we can actually sell ! So is there actually any demand for antibody tests anywhere ?

And regarding our antigen test, there a series of unknowns, assuming the TT happens approximately on time.

1) Is the Mologic test one of the 5 unknown tests that are at stage 3 of government evaluation
2) Will the evaluation process be happy to accept the odx visitect branded one is an equivalent to the mologic one, and move it to the same stage as mologic, assuming mologic is being assessed.
3) Will we be competing with mologic for tenders ?
4) When does the mologic/visitect get to stage 4, which is where the innova one is.
4) Innova is currently the default supplier, on record as stating a couple of weeks ago that they were supplying 1M a day to uk. It's clearly been determined "good enough" for the current use cases. So a requirement to source supply from another/additional manufacturer will be based on either cost or demand not being met.

On the Other hand.
You have ODX reporting an aggressive ramp up in capacity, and they are increasing their workforce, which would be consistent with the ramp up occurring.

I'm confused.

I think Fourfiguresbull was being sarcastic, which sometimes does not come over clearly in a typed environment.

"About time the company made a formal statement to protect sp. This wouldn't be allowed if we lad large investors.... pi s don't matter"

It's true that the company on more than one occasion has been quick to come out with a "we know no reason", when the share spiked upwards. However given the company is going to release an update on Mon, I don't think it's reasonable to expect them to make some statement prior to that.

On the gov.uk document dated 4 days ago, the intended use and the list of other possible uses for different profles for either the poc or self-test, makes no specific mention of vaccine effectiveness monitoring.

The self test does mention "to determine if an individual is immune to SARS-CoV-2", but wouldn't vaccine effectiveness monitoring be on a POC basis ?

But you would think that if vaccine roll out is going to be our big usage, someone might have thought to mention it on the government document.

Need more data.
What size is his thumb ?

Once you have extensive roll out of a 90% effective vaccine, you end up a high proportion of the population immune. then the percentage chance of 1 person that doesn't have immunity, meeting another similar non-immune person that is infected and receiving the virus from him/her, drops so dramatically that it is no longer significant.

That's my layman understanding of herd immunity.

"And you think there isn't an embargo hiding further developments? "
That's a nice seed to sow, but there is no evidence to suggest that there a) is further developments and b) they are embargo-ed.

£10M is enough raw material for between 10-15M tests (weren't we told the raw costs are about 70p a test ?) which is the exact number of units in the framework agreement with Abingdon, of which 1M tests have been ordered.

It doesn't bring anything new to the discussion.

It is worth remembering that the Ciga tweet that included the document, came out at a time the RTC was getting pumelled by BMJ and vaccine news. It was a deliberate attempt to counter than news by a company that that has a vested interesting in sales of RTC test.

"Hi TWatcher. How does this sound. The 10 million is just the beginning.....apparently. "

That document associates antibody testing with determining people that have previously had covid. It makes no claims that antibody test will be used as part of a vaccine deployment.