Member Info for TWatcher

No one in the UK can deliver that amount of tests in 6 weeks, even assuming someone had a test ready and phase 3a validated by the 15th of Jan. Even if they started stockpiling today. The cashflow alone would be a nightmare.

but given the requirements for CE approval in EU have not changed, it was merely a formality for them to get the test restamped in EU as CE approved.

"bids should cover the whole contract"
£912M of tests delivered in a 6 week window, unfortunately I think we all know who is getting this order.

Innova.

from that bidstat tender.

"One of these key requirements is that any test proposed must have successfully passed through LFT Validation Phase 3A by Public Health England’s Porton Down facility prior to the Tender Submission Deadline – see the ITT for further details."

The submission deadline is 15 jan. note that the contract is for £912M, for a 6 week delivery program !

The most crucial unknown information for ODX fortunes at this time is
1) Where is mologic in the validation process
2) Will the ODX visitect rebadged variant of the mologic antigen test be seen as a generic equivalent of the mologic test and thus taken on any validation that test has
3) Will ODX be competing with Mologic for UK orders.

Be clear, the "regulatory" part of the RNS today, i.e. the bit they were required to inform the market, is that a contract term in the RTC supply agreement with the government has failed to be met. This is the news that is price sensitive, and why they (ABI in this instance) were required to announce the first day the markets opened after the key date was missed (25th dec). As I've said previously, ABI listing on AIM is great for ODX, as prior to this, RTC major news was under NDA until ABI saw fit to release it. Now they are a listed company, news flow +ve and -ve is regulated. There is no longer a possible situation that ODX shareholders can think that the RTC has secret unannounced orders, as ABI is now regulated to announce such things.

"Abingdon continues to work constructively MHRA to try to enable such authorisation. "
"try to achieve", sounds extremely wishy-washy, and doesn't sound at all confident. Why not "continues to work to achieve the necessary authorisation"

The rest of the RNS is non-regulatory and just filler in an attempt to lessen the blow. The CE requirement for the EU is exactly the same 1st jan than at 31st of dec, so its no news that the test still has CE approval for professional use in the EU, applying in malta was just a rubber stamping process. and "continues to liaise with customers and regulatory authorities in other international territories" is hardly price sensitive info.

I note that in trying to soften the blow, there is not one mention of a "hand-in-hand" association between the antibody test and the OX/AZ vaccine. Mentioning the news reports that the vaccine is liable to be authorised in the coming days and thus an automatic requirement for their antibody test is immient, would have been an obvious way of reassurance if such a tight association exists. Its becoming increasing clear than there is no such association, tight or otherwise, except in the minds of those that want it to exist.

It may well be that DHSC uses the RTC test in its thus far authorised fashion, i.e. professional use. It may well be that MHRA approval for home use is granted, although the wording of todays RNS doesn't sound as if ABI is really expecting it any more.

It may also be a case that given the negative press that the RTC has gotten from Deeks and the Good Law project (the only press that RTC has gotten in many many months) it may be deemed that politically it is seen better to just use the missed date as an opportunity.

The next key metric in this regard , is when we hear whether that 200K min ongoing reserved capacity for RTC antibody test production is ever/still being used for said test. You'd expect that the capacity expansion plans would need adjusting a little if a presumed on-going 200K a week doesn't materialised.

And personally I think it would be an absolute marketing nightmare for them if the UK government who commissioned the test, and can get it for a bargain basement price, decided not to use i

"Twatcher, I see you are back with your little bits of deliberate misinformation. ODX do indeed have a CE mark for the Mologic antibody (3 spike) lateral flow test which as most of us also know- and you know too- has already been branded with the Omega Visitect brand, just as they promised.
They did not promise that the Mologic antigen test would be CE marked before now. They said the results from evaluation would be ready alongside the CE mark ready for tech transfer, just as they have delivered.
For anyone who doesn't know Twatcher this is the man who shared a doctored paper from Richard Tice claiming it was from Liverpool council. I pointed him to more accurate press coverage and to Liverpool city council's own website coverage on the issue (mass testing) and he went apoplectic.
He's a trader. Each to their own. But he ramps or deramping depending whether he's in or out. Manipulative and a little bit sad. Don't think anyone will be influenced by him anyway."

Just everything is factual incorrect with the above I had to quote the lot.
1)You talk about CE for antibody tests, The conversation on this thread was about MHRA for the antibody test, and CE for the antigen test. Apparently thats too confusing for you as you thought there was some conversation on this thread about CE for antibody test....hint...there wasn't any such conversation.
2)Mologic indicated in a video presentation on the 26th of oct "OCT: CE approval" for the antigen test. I've given the video link and the time in that video link. I can do no more.
3) I did not share a doctored paper, I commented on an undoctored PDF from liverpool council that someone else on this chat provided a link for. No matter how many times you say it, it is still a lie.
4) I am not a trader. It's like you have some natural ability to get every piece of factual information wrong.
5) I am stating facts. And yet again, I find when people can not argue facts, they start mud slinging, telling lies or calling people rampers/derampers as it suits them.

now calm down dear

the reason why they are buying chinese tests is because the innova one remains the sole LFT antigen test that has gotten as far as phase 4 validation.

Davde
"Mologic have never said their antigen Lft would be ready by Oct, to my knowledge."

They stated in a presentation given on the 26th oct, "oct 2020: acheive CE mark". see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpp8g6L5oT4
see 11 mins into the video.

It was much discussed here as the basis of 'certainty' by some that ODX would have TT completed before christmas.

Any facts I've stated in my posts are facts and can be backed up.

I have no been one bit critical of anyone, I have merely stated factually that expectations have frequently been missed, including expecations of just about everyone on here who got into this early spring or before who would have reasonably expected double digits millions of shipping tests by the end of the year.

Real112, your credibility is shot here long ago, you post nothing of substance, and clearly are here to simply deramp. I don't want to be associated with you. I'd like to here some contrary facts.

"You should read TWatcher's current posts...definitely looks like he/she/it has sold....trying to get in lower!!!"

This is generally the response you see when someone can't argue the facts.

"
13'54" seconds in, Colin starts talking about antibody testing;
"with the positive news of vaccine deployment, we expect that antibody tests will playa significant and key role in confirming if the vaccine has been effective"
"

Expectations are all well and good, but there's been a lot of expectations that have not come to pass.

Did anyone buying into this as a covid play at the start of the year really expect that by december 28th the entire announced covid tests that ODX had orders for was 250K test (25% of 1M antibody tests). I suspect everyone expected we'd be in the multi-million tests by now. I note there has been no inidication of volumes for the Visitect antibody test, regardless of all the websites "apparently" selling it.

CK is on record as saying that the first order for 1M from DHSC took much longer than he expected, gawd knows what he thinks of the fact that it has not progressed beyond 1M even though there is a mechanism for a further 9-14M tests if the gov wanted to order them.

CK also expected that the ELISA test would be in demand, and is now on record as saying that it's not a goer, and that they are looking to create an in-house testing lab to try to monetise it. I am working on the basis that this will quietly disappear.

Mologic expected to have CE approval for their antigen test by Oct, it actually happened just a few days ago.

Many on here expected an RNS confirming MHRA approval for the antibody test before the 25th dec contract stipulation, there has been no such announcement.

I'm hoping that vaccine distribution means that Covid as a urgent pandemic health risk will be a thing of the past in 6-9 months. If thats true then the timeline for vast worldwide sales of covid related testing is in that realm, and into the future it becomes more of a monitoring requirement. I suspect in the UK, innova will end up being the major winner in terms of LFTs.

"On this point TWatcher, agree with most of it. I don’t think the £912m tender will be to one supplier though, so there is potential for ODX to get a slice of it."

The unfortunate reality is that UK gov/DHSC have deemed the innova test good enough to use it. Innova several months ago stated they were shipping 1M tests a day to the UK. The delivery of tests for this contract commenced 10 days ago. If Mologic was extremely lucky and fully passed the validation process, they might get a small chunk of the action.

The hope for Mologic/OX is that the innova test is costings an arm and a leg, either simply because Innova is charging big money for it, or because of air freight costs. Otherwise, why switch from a company that your deemed good enough and can ship 30M tests a month ?

A somewhat slight problem being that ODX does not currently have an antigen test that is being validated by uk gov. When the TT completes (and odx is totally closed for another week) , we can but hope that it is seen as a generic equivalent to the mologic one otherwise they are at day 1 of getting the test vaildated for use by uk gov. And we know how slow that goes. It is worth remembering that Mologic has not announced that it has tendered or been formally validated and accepted by UK government. Mologic has recently announced that it is taking part in the USA RadX initiative. You'd think Mologic would announce UK progress if it had any.

That recent £928M bidstat for antigen tested would be nice to be part of. However, even the most optimistic outlook would see us producing any volume until Feb, with output around 1M a week.

And the contract said delivery needs to be completed by end of march.

Can't see UK gov paying ODX £928M for 2 months output.

"I would say we should hear Kol if they have cancelled as it is material to the SP. Would be a blessing though IMO as I believe the lack of news flow is due to the government ties, and we were selling at a significant discount to HMG, so we would end up more profitable and more transparent as a result."

Its amazing how the story changes to suit. CK had repeated said earlier in the year that the association with UK government would be a key selling point when selling to others. However your opinion is the UK government deciding not to buy a test that they themselves commissioned will be a wonderful selling opportunity for RTC !

Kol - I can confirm it was merely a date which was never mentioned by the government on any of the comm calls with omega - thus it was just a generic date and carried zero relevance.

The letters RTC haven't been mention by any government minister, civil servant or representative for close to 6 months. Its like the RTC never happended. Whoever drew up the contract on the government side, determined at the time that getting MHRA approval was so important that they wanted the option to exit the arrangement if approval did not happen by the end of the year. Else why have it as a contract stipulation. We cant but hope that MHRA approval is not as signficant as it was at the time the contract was signed.

Given that abingbon, who the contract is formally with, is now listed on AIM, they have a a requirement to announce sensitive news. We can therefore assume that MHRA approval has now been acheived by the required date.

I think it's clear to everyone except the most blind that the RTC antibody test has a lot less significance than when it was commissioned. First there was wide consensus that it might be used in the earlier days of the virus as some sort of passport, on the assumption that vaccines would take longer than they have. This notion drifted, as it was repeatedly reported that there was not enough scientific evidence to allowed the presence of antibodies to be used to determined immunity.

Then we had the quite ludicrous and dangerous 'announcement' that RTC antibody test was so tied to OX/AZ vaccine that if
3B vaccines were ordered, well in excess of this number of antibody tests would be needed. This of course was lapped up here by those that wanted to hear such news, no matter how silly, and not back by ANYONE. This document was quickly removed.

And it is worth remembering that there are multi-billion doses of vaccine pre-ordered, with some paid up front, but the RTC consortium have orders for exactly 1M tests. And no new announced orders for several months. This much talked about inextricable link between vaccine roll out and RTC antibody test simply has no evidence to support it in terms of orders/pre-orders. If 20M people get the ox/AZ vaccine worldwide in the next 3 months, then assuming 1 test per dose (and the bulls on here have bandied around wild notions of 2-3 tests per vaccinated person), where are the 20M orders for tests that that allegedly go hand in hand with it.

I don't know how many antibody tests RTC will make, but it is worth remembering that when asked at the most recent presentation that CK said ANTIGEN testing (not antibody) would make up most of the capacity.

I see odx just posted that they are closed up until the 5th jan. Given we got nothing new on the TT today, I’m starting to feel TT will now be FEB. Then we need CE approval, CE approval looks like it takes longer than many seem to think. Are we looking at March before we can legally supply this test to anyone ?

“We were waiting for Mologic to CE mark. Now they have CE marked. We don't have to CE mark again gk47. “

Tricky...you need to have words with Colin king. As per my post earlier today, odx needs to CE mark their own test, and Colin king just reconfirmed that. Get on the phone and tell him he is wrong

"What the announcement from Mologic does indicate, is that they would have been in a position to submit tender for the £928M contract that closed on the 18th December, so hopefully they did and we can start getting UK manufactured tests to the UK population and dump the chinese made Innova crap"

Which of course is good for the UK and mologic, but not one damn bit of use for ODX. I see Mologic is taking part in the USA RADx initiative, I head Biden chatting about that yesterday. So the thought that moloic would only be targetting 3rd world countries with their test is out the window.

I appreciate its your view, but no one from either Mologic or ODX has indicated a statement of fact or a hope or inference that one will be seen as an equivalent of the other. Given that CK has said they need to get their own CE approval for their visitect variant, that would go against your view.