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But he added: "I don't know about the South African strain – I think that's a big question mark."

There seems to be increasing trepidation about this SA strain. One wonders if they have doubt about the OX/AZ vaccine being effective, does that have any implications for the RTC antibody test that was developed hand-in-hand with it ?

so the BMJ is all wise when knocking the Innova test, and full of crap when knocking the RTC test ?

Sone of those boxes have clearly been repurposed. Old delivery boxes that Mologic reused to send stuff to ODX. "NEW TOOL" looks like a new label.

There is however only so much you can analysis from a stash of boxes. As we already know that TT has begun and Mologic sent some stuff down as part of the TT transfer (mologic lorries were reported on site at ODX a while back), this "BOOM" really isn't conveying any new news.

have no doubt, if/when significant RTC orders/ ODX antigen orders are received, there will be a highly significant response from the SP.

The conflict with ODX (at least that I have), is that although there are some good indicators to suggest that ODX expect orders, in particular the ramp up of capacity and workforce, the requirement for RTC test appear to me to be significantly receding, which is reinforced by the lack of orders to match vaccine roll out. On the antigen test, they don't have one (although one is expected shortly), when they do, we don't know whether it will assume the validation of the mologic from which it is TT-ed, and we don't know the level of validation the mologic one has. So the query is how soon after they complete TT will they be validated at a level to be eligible for tenders.

ODX always wanted to build capacity. So one could say that capacity increase alone is not a direct indicator. Capacity can be built, using the money raised this year, but one imagines it can be in suspended until needed. Its a good resource to be able to switch on capacity very quickly, covid or otherwise.

Workforce is a different matter. You dont significantly increase workforce unless you expect you need them to do something. Employees cost money, whether doing something or not. So its reasonable to say that ODX think they will need them. But CK has admitted in the past that he/they have been disappointed about RTC test orders for example. So there is a history of misreading things. And covid is a fast moving/changing segment. what seems crucial today may be ancilliary tomorrow.

Orders removes the above conflict. Now there is of course a reasonable argument that if you believe orders are definitely coming, you should get in before the orders become known. But I think its a fair assessment that the market has made a judgement on this, and the judgement is "undecided".

that sums up my position

I agree with your assessment of the those facts and possibly worse case scenario.

What i take from the SP at present is that the risk/reward balance that has been concluded by the market suggests the market is certainly not at this time convinced and is pretty much sitting on the fence.

They aren't walking back the results of 90% with 50% dose upfront.
They are taking into account that no one over 55 got that regime. So for the people that they most have the need to care about, they have ZERO data on how that regime effects them.

The extension to 12 weeks, is imply a case of wanting to give more people some protection that less people with greater protection. It gives the individual less protection, but the community more. Its about priorising it to provide most protection to the population and the NHS as quickly as possible.

They of course have no evidence from the trial that stretching the interval to 12 weeks doesn't reduce the protection. One assumes that surveillance thus far has told them that the level of antibodies generated in a person that successfully recovers from covid does not wane signficanlty over the 12 weeks, and have decided that the antibodies generated by the 1st dose of vaccine are likely to also not wane signficantly over 12 weeks.

so, no explanation from anyone, that is also worrying.

So here we are last day of 2020.

In theory, loads of pluses for odx
Ox/ax approved in uk, roll out starts next week. Gov says by end of March, big majority will be vaccinated

Bad news for the country, but good news for odx is that there is a major increase in infection across the uk, so more testing needed and announced for example for schools and lorry drivers.

Odx is on a tweeting spree, attempting to draw a line between ox/ax vaccine and the RTC test.

So explain why, with this apparent avalanche of news that could be no better for odx, the SP isn’t responding as many here have repeatedly predicted. As I type down 2.5, the same day as all of England goes to tougher tiers, schools are delayed returning, hospitals are beyond their previous highest figures and those figures will only get worse.

Either there is a disconnect somewhere or the narrative is wrong

"I think you will find that my trading was not initially of my desire. "
at the time you did the trading, you desired to do so.

Then you go on some wishy washy mills and boom diatribe, which when you strip out all the extraneous stuff, says you lowered your holding by selling on the expectation the price would go lower, and then buy back in and repeat.
That's the definition of a trader. And you could only buy back if the price went lower, so clearly you had an expectation/hope at those times that the price would go lower, otherwise you would not have sold. You may not knock the share, but it doesn't take much imagination to conclude that your most rampy periods where when you were a holder, and some of your least rampy periods where when you were looking to buy by in. I'm guessing you are currently in a holder, given the theme of recent postings.

It all amounts to the same thing. You have a history of trading ODX, 150K shares from an average of 50p down to 17p. Thats a lot of unwilling trading LOL ! There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a trader, its bestowed sainthood I have a problem with, when the facts (I like facts), indicate otherwise.

ruskky, Jadam has posted often on this board that he trades ODX. he is a long time trader, not a long term holder.

And, to get back to more facts, you'll note that the ODX SP has had zero, I repeat zero reaction to the announcement of the OX/AZ vaccine approval. The story being proffered by some to deliberately mis-inform new or potential buyers, is that this vaccine effectively means unimaginable large orders for the RTC test.

It doesn't, and they know it.

meanwhile, back in the land of reality. 3B ox/az vaccine pre-ordered.
1M tests ordered, of which ODX has made 250K. no new orders in 2 months

On the topic of the absolutely useless UK Gov, why has Excel Nightingale Hospital seemingly closed just as it's needed? It's actually the one thing they managed to accomplish on time. Handjob strikes again?

its a staffing issue, they dont have any. Its the reason why front line staff are first for the vaccine. As well as protecting the people they treat, the ultimate priority is to protect precious NHS front line staff going off sick/isolating due to covid. My partner got the 1st dose of vaccine today.

BTW you guys in england only think you have NHS problems. I'm in N.I. and people typically wait 3-4 years for hip/knee replacement. I was recently with a shoulder consultant for a minor issue (thankfully covered by health insurance), and he was telling me if I fell and needed to see him for a rotator cuff issue, his current waiting list is 7 years.

Other than emergency trauma and some red flag stuff, the NHS isn't really a health service over here these days.

"It’s clear not one company can make this amount of test"

Factually thats incorrect. some time ago, Innova reported that it was shipping 1M tests a day to the UK. One assumes UK is not their sole customer. So factually, 1 company can (and is) making this amount of tests

MHRA approval or not, it is still in DHSC control whether the consortium can offer the test for sale to anyone other than DHSC.

i.e. non MHRA approval does not release the RTC from it's single customer status (DHSC), regardless of whether that customer orders any tests.

As of the 11th of Nov, 6 tests have reach phase 3 according to this doc
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-university-and-phe-confirm-high-sensitivity-of-lateral-flow-tests

We don't know how many have completed phase 3a.

the various phases are described here:-
https://www.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/oxford/media_wysiwyg/UK%20evaluation_PHE%20Porton%20Down%20%20University%20of%20Oxford_final.pdf

The only kit that is called out by name is the Innova, but apparently they can't apply. Also those documents are now 6 weeks old, which in covid timeline is quite a bit.

As is usual, its what we dont know thats important.
1) is mologic at phase3a
2) will the TT-ed rebranded visitect version be bestowed all/any validation that the mologic one has.
3) is there any arrangement between mologic and ODX that might allow them to collective fulfil an order.

6 weeks seems an awful sort time frame to deliver £912M of LFT tests.

I understand, they applied under the old reg that they had certainty of passing, and having applied it remains CE approved without requiring to apply under the new regs. As I said, all it took was whoever is responsible to realise the situation and go thru the paperwork again in a EU country.

"Thought we may have been producing the antibody tests and stockpiling for several weeks to get a head start on orders? Anyone have any idea how many this could be?"
Bidstat contract under discussion is for an antigen swab LFT, not an antibody blood LFT

reading that bidstat again it does say
"Tenders may be submitted for one, for several or for all of the lots."
and yet earlier it says "bid should cover the whole contract"

Which sounds a bit conflicted.

Wasn't aware of that there were new such CE regs.

But basically you are saying they applied under the old regulations, and thus approval was a certainty. All they had to do was not forget to apply.

I find it best to argue the facts, and not make things personal.