Member Info for TWatcher

Odx got 175k tests out of the 1M order. The figures was in the RNS !

so that’s just under 1 weeks output.

The tweet says that the mologic inhouse test is a nasal swab. I had wondered it it was going to be nasal or saliva. I take it the Innova is nasal too ?

Also, it indicates that Mologic are using 3rd party tests to make use of their capacity. Pity ODX didn't think of that.

Mind you, having a test is one thing, needs to go thru Porton Down/PHS validation testing etc, and we still don't know if the Mologic one is in there, nor do we know for sure if a TT-ed ODX antigen test will be taken as being an equivalent of the mologic test, on the assumption that the Mologic testi is in the validation process and gets to stage 4.

IMO there are still a lot of unknowns before we can be in a position to think we might get DHSC LFT antigen sales.

"this tweet is unavailable"

Do we know the exact relationship between mologic and odx in terms of UK contracts. Will they be competing, do they have an understanding ?

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W48/739704996

All delivered before christmas

bidstat tender "services related to covid-19"
The tender does not include procurement of tests, so please don't anyone go jumping up and down that the 618M is an order for tests.

However it does indicate that around 100K people a week will get a covid test, and up to 20% get a blood test for antibodies. weekly tests for the first 5 weeks, followed by monthly tests.

The numbers above won't move the needle for us, and its' worth noting that the surveillance puts more emphasis on antigen than antibody testing. We don't totally know if "blood test" means an LFT test or not. But one would suspect that they will not require those undertaking the survey to be qualified to draw blood, so I assume it's an LFT test.

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W48/739573790

To be fair its not old news to me. The fact that the 1/2 dose group was significantly smaller that the full dose group and that it did not include anyone over the age of 55, makes that 90% figure not no where near as rock solid as it appeared just from the headline data.

and finally (!), the agreement to pay in advance for the procurment of raw materials says it'll get paid in 3 tranches. Unfortunately Annex A of the letter is blank ,which is were it would be laid out in detail. However, we know the first tranche was £1M. I suspect the 2nd tranche is for another 9M units, and the 3rd tranche would be for the extension of 5M units.

All just guesses of course, but not unreasonable based on what is in the public domain.

To further add to that theory/speculation, the listing on the bidstats for procument of raw materials is £10.3M. That listing makes no mention of the number of units. The letter detailing some of the terms that Merchantbanker listed has the number of units blanked out. It really can't be any other nmber of units other than related to the framework that abingdon has said they have with DHSC, which is for 10m/15M units. That would suggest raw materials are costs £1.03 or 68.6p per test.

"Someone mentioned ODX alone could be manufacturing 300,000 per day now, well lets say 200,000 , and a 1 million a week.....where are these all going....customer or storage?"

No, capacity is supposed to be 300K a week by the end of Nov.

Regarding the £75M contract/tender call it what you like.

I think it is extremly important to remember that the Abingdon prospectus makes no mention of a £75M contract. They mention exactly 1 contract with DHSC, that being for one that is a framework for 10M units, "with scope" (their words) to be extended by another 5M. There is no other DHSC order or contract mention, save for the agreement that DHSC will provide funding for raw materials, for which at this time Abingdon has received just short of £1M

It's my view (based on the information we have), that we are seeing the same contract from two different sides, The abingdon side 10M units with scope for 15M but no money mentioned, and from the tender side 75M, but no units mentioned. If there was some other contract, the prospectus would surely have mentioned it. If true this was a fortunate (for us)unintended effect of the prospectus.

So if my opinion is right, £75M = either 10M or 15M tests. So on that basis Abingdon is getting either £7.5 or £5 a test. This is why I said that ODX would not be getting 25% of the monetary value of that contract. Finncap suggest they might get £1.50 or so per test. Abingdon is making money on the outsourced tests, if that is correct.

We'd need to see the exact terms of the framework.

If could be that framework commits them to a 10M order, unless MHRA approval doesn't happen, and they decide to execute that clause.

Or it could be that the framework does not commit to 10M order, but should any orders be placed and not fulfilled at a time when MHRA approval in refused, then they have the option to cancel those orders.

"isn't a word" = "is a word"

derogation is a word in my vocab, its something I had to look up.

It means to take away. That would suggest that the initial "approval" of the processes gives it home use/ self use and then when the user experience studies are completed, they might take away the approval. So if the above is right, technically they have approval for home use in the first instance ?

Can someone validate/correct my interpretation ?

"So the prospectus says 10m tests. So £10.3m to supply 10m tests and they currently have ordered 1m. So we are guaranteed another 9m ordered. With scope to go to 15m. That's exactly my point backed up by Abingdon prospectus that there is already more than 1m tests on the table with the government."

My expectation would be that there will be another 9M tests ordered, and that they'll receive most of /all of the cash to buy the raw materials and turn them into finished goods. However that is not an order, and if they were guaranteed to do it, they should have just done it, given that the figures we are talking about here are chicken feed compared to the amount of money they are dishing out. I am minded that they can cancel all orders if no MHRA by 25th dec. That's 4 weeks from today. In relation to that, Abindon said:-

The Board has stated that it has developed protocols to demonstrate suitability for home use/self-test which have been submitted to MHRA for approval. Subject to approval of the processes, the Group will perform additional user experience studies to provide additional evidence to allow MHRA to determine whether to provide a derogation for the home use/self-test application."

and separately
"Abingdon Health is also applying for regulatory approval for home use with MHRA. If approval is not received by 25 December 2020, the DHSC has the right to cancel all outstanding orders."

So MHRA approve the processes, Abingdon does "user experience studies", and then MHRA make a determination. Exactly which of those is approval for home use ? "user experience studies" doesn't sound like the sort of thing you do in a couple of days.

"Twattcher you have left out the labour cost from the 75p"
I have indeed, and forgot there is of course an input for that in the costs.

BTW that's how you see that you were wrong, admit it and don't spend the next 5 posts turning black into white.

I have not sold, I remain concerned as previously pointed out. What I don't like is people stating things as facts that are just plain wrong. Stating that abingdon has received £10M and thus have the raw materials to make 40M tests, is just plain wrong. Funny how overstating raw material purchasing capacity by a fact of 10 isn't see as ramping, but stating the exact facts is deramping.

I'm also at a loss how the mythical £10M equated 40M tests. thats a raw material cost of <25p. Finncap advised omega gets £1.50 a test, with a gross margin of 50%. Omega has subsequently advised their margins will be a bit higher than that. But that still suggests a raw material cost of 60-80p.

There is no £10.3M cash for upfront.
and £10.3M doesn't get you anywhere near 40M+ tests.

But somehow I'm the problem here for pointing out these extreme inaccuracies.

"I'm not personally concerned with how much cash Abingdon are holding upfront vs what has already been paid and what is still to be paid. The point is there is finance for £10.3m of components."

ROFL !

First it was cash... "plus £10m quid for components for the next batches. That's probably 40m tests+"
then you doubled down.... "No it's £10.3m for components, which makes a lot of tests"
then it was a letter of credit.... " it is a letter of credit for the purchase of £10.272m "
Then it was "The £1m Abingdon received from the Government is for the development of a smartphone reader App"

And now its "wellll, i wasn't really bothered about it"

You crack me up.

So lets be clear, they don't have £10M in cash from the gov for materials , they don't have a letter of credit for £10M.
There is a framework were they may get advances of up to £10M for raw materials. There is a framework for up to 10M tests, that might extend to 15M. They have received approx £1m in cash for raw materials. They have received an order for 1M tests. As I said about 5 posts ago (and you wrongly argued against in series of posts), it appears the cash advances are commensurate with the confirmed test orders.

I missed the bit where you moved the goalposts and said the £1M was for an app.

The £1M for the app was a loan (not reimbursed expense) from innovate uk.

"In September 2020, Abingdon Health announced that it had secured £1 million of loan funding from Innovate UK to fund the accelerated development of AppDx® to enable a fully quantitative smartphone based solution."
Innovate UK has NOTHING to do the DHSC.

This is entirely separate from the "UPFRONT CASH" they received from the DHSC.

"the Group agreed with the DHSC that it would receive support in the procurement of raw materials to manufacture the finished goods. The Group has received nearly £1 million of cash up front for this contract"

Can you described the raw materials that are required to make an app and what are the finished goods.

Quite an interesting insight as to how someone is prepared to see black as white, even when it's written down in black&white.

Abingdon says "The Group has received nearly £1 million of cash up front". That is an exact quote, from abingdon, in writing, in the company prospectus.

Merchant banker says "Its not cash upfront it's reimbursed expenses"

You really do what a recount in Georgia