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Unless the Mologic test is not up to scratch, it would seem far better to have 1 company (surescreen) start a TT process whilst the other 2 start knocking out actual tests. It would also of course work in favour of ODX as output will occur sooner.

That's assuming the 3 named companies are the totality of the antigen consortium, has it been confirmed that there are other as yet unnamed manufacturers ?

Exactly how many UK designed tests are there out there that are in the frame? Can there really be all that many. Surescreen has already been purchased by ukgov, which implies that it has already passed some level of conformancy, so that's one.

GAD and ODX both have or almost have the Mologic test. Is it likely that all 3 companies will have to TT another test, that is available, that is good enough, and that the IP owner is willing to allow the UK gov to resell rather that produce itself ?

It seems most likely to me that it is either the mologic test or the surescreen one.

"The Government tender document directed the market towards £6 a test."

It does not. For that to be the case an assumption would be needed that THAT contract is for the same daily rate as the gov is hoping to get from the UK antigen consortium, but there is no known correlation between the two. Also, Innova, as by far the dominant current supplier can command a premium as that test has been the one that has desperately been needed by UK gov over the last 4-5 months. When the world needs a test, and only a select few are deemed good enough, the supplier can ask for whatever the market can sustain.

The "sovereign" test as Regulator calls it, is a UK gov/DHSC selected test, and UK manufacturers are chomping at the bit to be a manufacturing partner. UK gov is calling the shots. Also an IP royalty of indeterminate, but clearly not totally insignficant value, will need to be paid to whatever company designed the test.

A conclusion can not be drawn from past tenders for an indeterminal number of test from a company that has been a single source supplier of a much needed commodity.

With the lack of any other sources, I'm going with the Finncap ballpark figures that they guesstimated, and that wallbrook, ODX's paid PR company, retweeted.

Accepting that finncap says they don’t know the exact income per test, the range they give £150-£200M would suggest the upper end they expect is £2 a test. That is for the entire 100M tests over a 12 month period. Many on here where expect non-gov antibody tests and mologic tests to sell for much much higher than this. I heard figures bandied on here of £5-£10 a test. It appears these expectations need to be substantially reset. On the upper end of £2 a test, with the designer of the test needing an IP royalty, cost of materials wages, what is the expected profit ?

Maybe some of the guys that created a “filter these people” list can create a list of known rampers. I’m certain those same guys would want to warn people of those making wide unsubstantiated claims that have been proven to be incorrect, if they are genuine about their motives

It won’t surprise me if the list makers don’t take this up.

Commencement was announced last day of nov, so probably happened a little before that. By my reckoning we are at 11 weeks and counting, for a TT that was supposed to take 4-6 weeks according to many on here, and less by some others. Not exactly under promising and over delivering from CK who was excited about H2 for mologic test in a prior update. Mind you the doors were bolted closed for 2 weeks around Christmas, with (once again ) the usual suspects here saying it was silly to think ODX was not beavering away behind closed doors on the TT.

I wonder given the formal announcement about the government capacity contract, has priorities changed at ODX. If so shareholders need to be informed.

its not on track, its late, I recall some out and out rampers hoped for it as a christmas present a few months ago, based on a single throw-away comment by CK.

"How would you know?? Numbers sold haven’t been confirmed stop deramping you tool"

like most I read yesterdays RNS that said they received £1.5M in total for covid related activities. If you think that equates to more than 2M tests, then you really need to do some sums.

A startling omission in the market update yesterday was the complete lack of mention of the mologic TT. I clearly recall 4-6 weeks being discussed, with many saying it would be 3-4 weeks as they had a great working experience with Mologic and had already done a prior TT with them. I expected it at the latest end of Jan, and when I stated that a couple of weeks ago, I was told that was bleeding obvious the timeline because of what we've been told.

It's gone all dark on that front. other that the occasion tweet.

Speaking of tweets, many rejoiced in the recent sudden ramp-up in ODX tweets saying it was great to get "newsflow" (when of course it wasn't news), and a turnaround in PR. But now I'm seeing many of the same folks saying PR is crap.

You gotta realise that PR only goes so far, it can not give you ANY significant information about a listed company that has not already been officially presented to the market. It may *feel* like news, but it isn't. It's just quasi-feelgood fodder presented as news, like the recent 3 pictures of a facility bereaft of people apparently showing the ramp up to 2M a week production.

they clearly meant to say "2M per week lateral flow test production CAPACITY target"

For the avoidance of doubt, ODX have not sold 2M covid tests IN TOTAL, never mind approaching 2M per week

no, you said you were stating facts, and that is a fact. Appears what you meant was that bits of your post were factual, and bits were not. That's how this forum gets into so much disinformation.

I hope its not a statement of fact.
"I know its all bad and ODX will sell nothing in 21/22! "

that sounds familiar to the tale we've heard from the rampers the last 4 months.
"they will sell all they can make",
"you think they are taking on all that staff for fun , and ramping up capacity and not producing anything, you're nuts",
"they are using their capacity to the full and have NDAs preventing them from saying, or are stockpiling as they have contracts that are just not public".

They have no orders.

its been confirm by colin king. It is worth remembering that their previous indirect engagement with DHSC that was going to get ODX a slice of 3B+ test sales got them 250K. I've said before people need to learn the lesson of that fiasco and don't take 2+2 and make 3Billion.

They have no orders.

ODX have repeatedly said they will announce when they have orders. CK today has gave an extremely clear indication that ODX expects major orders, but he also expected a Mass vaccine roll out to require mass antibody testing. And don't tell me it didn't happen because of the Good Law thing. If it was crucial to the vaccination program, other antibody tests would've been acquired and used. They've have been no bidstat tenders for 100Ms of antibody tests. Things change.

ODX is a manufacturing company. Its orders that drive its SP.

The fact is that Elisa, RTC antibody, and visitect antibody have resulted in income of less than £1.5M. ODX has been in a position to produce 200K rising to 600K a week tests throughout most of that reporting period, but they've sold next to none. Call it bad luck, call it poor judgement, call it whatever you want but the FACT is they've sold virtually no covid LFT tests, regardless of all the capacity they've had. Wonder what all that staff is actually doing, is it all equipment installation and validation ?

There is also a perceived reduction in potential income from selling to the DHSC a test that has been licensed from DHSC and using equipment that has been loaned by DHSC, than from a test that ODX has independently acquired and facilitated the capability to produce, i.e. the agreement will mean less income per test than if ODX had sold a visitect antigen test.

Regulator,

Thanks for following up and getting an exact quote, which puts an entirely different tone on things. The Mologic test is not pre-ordained, it would be "ideal" for ODS as TT is (hopefully) close to completion. On the assumption it is not the mologic test, then we are back to some time in April before ODX will be in a position to provide capacity.

In terms of the pricing, it is entirely common for pricing to be volume based in such scenarios, with cost per unit (per test in this case) reducing once various milestones are crossed.

that is MAJOR news, ODX has a head start on TT (I just asked this question on the RNS thread)

does anyone have thoughts as to which test might get selected by DHSC.

Clearly, if it was Mologic, then ODX would have a major headstart on being ready.
Given Surescreen has already announced 22M tests have been ordered by DHSC, is it reasonable to think it is going to be this test ?

"the intention is that as soon as the DHSC has access to a test that has successfully passed a performance evaluation, the test will be licensed for Omega to manufacture. As part of the contract, DHSC will loan a number of key pieces of manufacturing equipment."

So as of writing the RNS, no test has been picked by DHSC. One assume when it is picked, ODX has to go thru a TT process. ODX is currently around 7 weeks into a TT process for the mologic. So we can assume around 7 weeks+ from when DHSC picks a test, that ODX will have the capability to manufacture it. So best guess is sometime around start of April.

For all those hundreds of posts that have been placed on here saying ODX has all these orders that NDAs prevent them from talking about, I refer you the Colin King, "revenue from covid expected to be £1.5M" this includes the 250K tests sold for RTC. Assuming revenue from the RTC is about £500K, total income from all other covid is £1M, and that £1M includes "development income for work undertaken on behalf of a third party." Conclusion, ODX have sold diddly squat tests so far. Do people still think ODX has stockhouse full of covid tests, maxing out the ever increasing capacity as scores of rampers have endlessly posted here? I have repeatedly said that capacity and production are two different things, rampers have said ODX has been making tests and maxing out their capacity each month.

Its great that Uk government is lending ODX equipment that will allow ODX to hit its 2M a week capacity by April. It'll save them some money to be used for other things. It is interesting that ODX did not take the opportunity to continue with their own plans to independently hit 2M capacity and add extra capacity using the DHSC loan equipment.

Its great that ODX has been contracted to reserve capacity for antigen testing. At time of writing ODX still does not have any significant LFT orders, although the signs are there that UK gov will do so. How many, and over how long is another matter. Also, no word on whether ODX gets full revenue for this UK tests, or whether there will be a royality to UK gov, the underlying provider of the test, or both.

Also, where the hell is the mologic TT ?

"Actual contracts signed"

this and only this.

"minimum order" = "Substantial minimum order quantity"