Member Info for TWatcher

Unfortunately, it's poorly worded:-
"to accommodate the production of the #COVID19 lateral flow test.."

If one didn't know better one might think that says they only make one covid 19 later flow test.

"Surely £160k at 80p each is about 200k shares not 2m!"
Good spot, although in fairness it won't quite be that as the option price was 10-20p.

" have you ever sold any shares for a profit? "

I have. Three points on that.
1) I've never had shares gifted that cost me nothing until the day I sell them at a time of my choosing within the rules, to take free money.
2) Any time, I've sold its because I thought there was a bigger chance of the price going down than going up.
3) Never being a director of any company I've had shares in meant that i knew my share sales would not send a signal to the market.

which part of "ODX clearly have a gov order pending. " did you not read ?

"tax reasons"
An excuse often rolled out by some that feel the need to explain director share dealings.

The share dealings announced today combined to around£160K (2M ish at say 80p).

Must be awful to be earning money at such a rate that required such a tax payment, I pity them !

well the first paragraph was a lot of name calling and venting, I find it best just to stick to facts.

Onto the bit where you discuss ODX, Capacity is certainly well up since oct, and there is no doubt that ODX is on target for 2M a week capacity by end of April. There is also no doubt that ODX sold next to zero LFT devices in the last 5 months. The recent figures stated £1.5M income from all covid related activities. You don't need to be a maths genius to figure out that that means next to zero LFT tests. Zero announced orders from ODX, and ODX have said they will announce ALL significant orders. Visitect antibody test isn't selling, The elisa test has been transposed to a lab provision, but no contracts announced for that, We know RTC got 250K tests (thats about 2 days capacity today, ODX work a 5-day week). None of that is presumed, it is all factual.

Extreme pent-up demand for RTC antibody tests has been repeatedly promoted on here. I don't see it myself as I don't see any country clambering for LFT antibody tests, any demand for antibody tests want quantitative analysis (how many antibodies you have, not just if you have some or not). Today was promoted on here as unshackling day for the RTC test, but no contracts announce by lead partner Abingdon, who as a listed company have the same duty to announce orders as ODX.

It increasingly appears that ODX is hanging it's hat on government orders. Gov is calling the shots, they bestow you with a license to produce. ODX clearly have a gov order pending. I am reminded that the last such gov order didn't work out so well. I'm sure ODX have learned lessons from it. But with manufacturing kit apparently just sitting there doing very little, shortly 2M weekly capacity, and a whole host of staff that we know have NOT been producing tests (because CK's figures tell us that), ODX may be need the Gov order more than the Gov need ODX, which is not an idea position to be in when negotiating a contract.

ummmm......

" And, frankly, ODX can manufacture *any* LFT. It's a fairly standard manufacturing set up that can be easily adjusted to take account of individual test requirements"

and yet we are at week 11 of Technology Transfer (TT for those new here) of the mologic test to ODX...and counting, and this with a company they have previously TTed with. Is it unreasonable to expect a similar timeframe to TT a test from another company. ? It's not as if there has been a suggestion that ODX has been dragging it's heals on the mologic TT/

"Directors have a limited time to sell, so news is imminent."

The most pressing lapsing time for those shares was Aug of this year. The next time some of those options lapsed was Jul 2022. The lapsing of share options was not the reason why 1.6M were exercised.

Also, although its a nice idea, it is of course fake news to suggest director sells pre-advertise news, as by definition a company can not issue any indication of news before the news is issued. You don't also imagine a scenario whereby directors sell because bad news is immient, but think it's entirely logical that directors sell before good news :)

yet again some one badmouthing for the sake of it instead of discussing the points made. This is an ODX discussion board.

reminds me of that lawyer saying

"when the law is on your side, argue the law. When the facts are on your side, argue the facts. When neither are on your side, pound the table and yell like hell.”

"TWatcher, it’s a generous award , I agree, but it’s not a ‘ free lunch ‘ there is a substantial tax charge when receiving options at the price he/ others have enjoyed."

I'm not going to feel sorry because directors had to pay some tax as part of getting a substantial generous award.

ones antibody, ones antigen.
One died a a death and resulted in next to zero government orders after months of hype.

The other is a work in progress. Surescreen GAD and ODX are manufacturing partners. Only Surescreen have announced orders, but then again ODX does not have an antigen test at this time for the Gov to orders.

in case some are looking for the order.
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W06/744947745
Bit light on details, no indication over how long the delivery is. Anyone know Surescreens capacity ?

I wonder is this suggestive of this being the selected test, if so, don't expect an ODX gov for at least a couple of months, Gov can't order something that ODX can't make. There will be a license announcement, which will drive the SP but no income for many months if surescreen is the select test. Things change if it is the Mologic test, but evidence at this time suggests not.

And just to remind everyone, ODX have NO significant orders for ANY lft test. ODX have repeatedly said they will RNS any orders of significance.

"Will Rhodes has 1.8m options still."

and does not hold a SINGLE share that he paid for with his own money.

"I will re-emphasise once again...the government are just about to provide omega with a life changing contract."

you need to get on the phone and tell CK to let his directors know about this "life changing contract" (Gawd, talk about ramping hyperbole), besides taking options, some of which were not due to expire until 2024, one director separately also sold 175K shares.

Your narrative suggests those directors were so desperate for money they could not wait for a life changing contract !. And as i said elsewhere, NONE of the options were due to immiently lapse.

"Some of these options have been held for 10 years! Can't blame them for taking some profit. The earliest of the ones exercised they have held for 6 years?"

You failed to mention that, some, i.e. Jeremy Millard, got these shares just 14 months ago.

In total they have disposed of over 2M shares, and one of the directors now has a ZERO shareholding, quite I'm guessing he'll be known as director of bedwetting by some on here !

BTW, now the gov contract is dead, where is the announcement of the raft of RTC antibody orders that we've been told the consortium have been knocking out tests for since Sept ? Wasn't this THE day that many have been talking about for months, the next "next big thing", all those countries chomping at the bit to get the RTC antibody test ?

You don't often see non-execs having significant share options, These often times are people that have a duty just a few times a year, and by definition ("non-exec" ), don't have major decision making powers, and are often not involved with the company on a daily basis.

As far as I am aware, those are PCR tests

"They haven't factored a single Antigen test (over 3 times as profitable) into their calculations for expected revenues "
There figures are based on full capacity next year, with most of that capacity filled with UK antigen testing.

Agree that it has not been explicitly stated that there will only be a single test, however it certainly appears that ODX expect to be making a single test for UK gov..from the RNS:-

"The intention is that as soon as the DHSC has access to a test that has successfully passed a performance evaluation, the test will be licensed for Omega to manufacture.

As a layman it would seems easier to me that everyone makes the same test.

"It also looks as though Omega won't be 100% max'd out on the DHSC contract:
https://twitter.com/NeilHenshaw5/status/1360226970987073539
So we could have a number of revenue streams, in addition to the £200m DHSC income."

I agree with that point, I don't think Finncap would have neglected to include output of other LFT test in the mix when then listed their bulletin points of

"on track to produce....100m test a year"
"Could generate c£150m-£200m of annual revenue"
"£ clarity unlikely "until govt indicates which test it intends to procure"