Member Info for TWatcher

you do realise that "it's just a matter of time before a TR1" has just been a matter of time for months now, I think "TR1" has been mentioned at least once a week since the new year.

"Whatever your views of Colins public appearances, he does know how to run a small business and I cant believe he would put it in the red so they must be doing something, or, their wages are being underwritten by the contract to allow maximum flexibility to the production hub from the UK Gov."

You shouldn't judge small companies on whether they are put "in the red", many businesses often run at a loss for a while. But it seems you're unaware that the recent trading update expects "EBITDA loss in the region of GBP2.1 million to GBP2.3 million" for the year end which is technically a red figure.

Lets not start a new super secret NDA "the gov is paying wages". I thought we'd had all the rampy NDAs there could be, from NDA antibody orders (abingdon has confirmed there are no significant current orders), to NDA antigen orders (CK confirmed they don't even have a test selected, never mind begun TT-ing it). All you do is froth up another round of baseless supposition that is only likely to end with more recriminations.

I'm glad at least that more people are starting to realise the reality of the production position, there is none, which I've been saying that the evidence has been pointing to for months, and the recent formal announcements from both CK and abingdon have only re-enforced. I understand that the realisation doesn't sit well, that many have been led the wrong direction by those hat wanted to sucker people in, but it's best to use the formal RNS statements for what they are intended, which is to formally advise the market, and not use twitter feeds as a source.

ODX will rerate when we are made aware of actual orders, but it is taking a lot lot longer than just about any serious investor rightly expected. It's worth remembering that ODX in TOTAL has announced 250K unit sales of ANY lft covid product.

I am invested which is why I invest time to ensure that people don't froth this share. I'm also disapointed that many decisions thus far have largely not panned out. Elisa test, Visitect antibody test, RTC antibody test and timeline for Mologic test to name just 4.

Which investor in their right mind though that ODX would have sold a total of 250K LFT covid tests by now ?

Thankfully I'm in low enough to be in profit.

I see many are still perpetuating the myth that ODX are working flat out knocking out tests at max capacity since oct 2020. A reasonable estimate by me last week was that at max capacity, ODX would have produced 9.4M tests by end of last week.

We've had the "they're making antigen tests" for many months now, with many ramping that the mologic test is TTed, and then the latest switch to a ramp that the UK gov test is TTed either/both are being manufactured and it's all hush hush NDA and stuff.

That whole rampiness was killed dead by CK yesterday, when he confirmed what was obvious that there is no selected test, and he said they had no test to make. And we've been told the mologic TT is still progressing

So now I see the ramp targets have moved, and we are back onto, "they've been knocking out RTC anitbody tests for months". At one time that was based on the whole dead cert that a mass vaccination programme would require mass antibody testing, that did not transpire. Then it was based on a ramp that abingdon has a whole raft of pre-orders just looking to be fulfilled, and as soon as the 15th of Feb happened (when the uk gov contract expired), all these orders would be announced. Its a month later, and Abingdon's recent RNS made it clear that they are producing "in anticipation" of orders, i.e. there are no actual sizeable orders. Also ODX has continually told us that they would announced all signficant orders, no announcements have been made.

So that still leaves the rampers with wiggle room that there's NDAed orders for RTC antibody test. The funny thing is, on the 1st of december, when the UK gov contract for antibody RTC test was still thought by many to be the big earner for ODX, and the gov hadn't even thought about commissioning an antigen LFT consortium, an article in the scottish herald stated:-

"Mr King said Omega is anticipating most of the demand in the first part of 2021 will be for rapid antigen tests, which confirm whether a person is currently infected. That is expected to shift in favour of antibody testing – which detects if a person has previously had the disease, and is producing natural defences against it – as the year progresses.
The latter is expected to be used alongside any vaccines that are rolled out, as health experts will want to track the longevity of protection provided by an inoculation."

So, we're at about 1/2 way thru the first 1/2 of 2021, and ODX does not have an antigen LFT test in their portfolio of products, even though CK expected this to be the most in demand test in the first part of 2021, and he didn't expect demand for antibody tests. Monitoring antibody longevity is entirely different from a mass antibody program, any sizeable monitoring program would require UK gov to order tests that give quantative results, which LFTs do not.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/18910109.omega-expects-significantly-improved-second-half-posting-1-8m-loss/

The irony is that last year Cheltenham was one of the sources of the first surge.

A random person on the Internet reports that his mate reports people are coming and going, so they must be producing something. Odx have not mentioned production volumes.

We know how many are employed, it’s one of the figures the company has actually reported so exactly what does some dudes mate counting them add to the discussion ?

12 months is a lifetime ago for covid. It was all fear and uncertainty, no vaccines, no out path, a whole raft of unpreceded things happening like countries locking down, people being denied entry, airlines closing down routes. Real concern that we'd have people lying in the streets outside hospitals etc. t was a world in turmoil.

In that atmosphere, a company announcing anything with the word covid in it, the SP rocketed.

We are a million miles away from there. A country doing another lockdown hardly makes major news these days. There is a way out, vaccine roll out progresses, treatments are avaiable, testing is needed, but rational thinking has returned to covid related stocks.

A manufacturing company needs production and confirmed orders, and the uk gov contact yesterday put no meat on either of those, and the RNS from the company only re-enforced that.

so who was on the grassy knoll ?

Gov once again has ODX in a corner, last time it was "no MHRA by 25th dec, no orders" and that's how it panned out.

This time ODX can do nothing until gov makes a proclamation relating to which test they want to select. The ball is again in the DHSC court.

who did you think ODX was waiting on ?

"We’re investing in 2m LFDs per week by end May from British firms @OmegaDiagnostic and @mologic
to stop the spread of COVID-19."

Is the exact quote.

The article he refers to is a gov Press Release and it makes clear that it is 2M a week from each company. It does say end of May, but given we do't know what GADs timeline is, perhaps he was saying end of may will be when both are doing 2M a week, does not necessarily means that ODX isn't still targetting end of April.

interesting people posting at 3pm that they are putting buy limits in, and yet didn't do so at 7am this morning when the apparent wonderful RNS was posted.

You'd almost think they didn't believe their own posts.

Penance, there a wee called being a public listed company.

they can not make the Mologic test yet, we've been told several times by the company that they will announce when the technology transfer (taking Mologic's test and being able to produce it at the required standard in ODX factories) has completed. They then have to do thru a process to get it CE/UK approved. TT is still ongoing.

ODX has no relationship with surescreen.

you realise share investment is not a religion, its not a belief based system, right ?

d orders

good to see the SP tickling just over £1, lets hope it's a new baseline.

I see the hotline to CK was in action today, with bigjock giving everyone the "this is not the silver bullet" reassurance.

The problem with ODX is that silver bullets have been declared left right and centre, each being christened as the one thing that is going to demand a new re-rating of the SP, but mysteriously those silver bullets either never materialise, or it turns out the gun was firing blanks.

CE for the antibody test.
UK gov order for the antibody test
CE for the visitect test
MHRA for the antibody test...still waiting
CE for mologic for its tests
Launch of a mass vaccination programme
Unshackling day for the RTC test, 15th of feb, 1 month ago.
Publication of the bidstat doc
TT for the mologic test...still waiting

those have come and gone. Each one generating one almighty froth of expectation and rampy rampiness on the board. The next silver bullet I predict are

uk gov announcing test selection to manufacture
ODX announcing TT of said test

Basically, after the bidstat announcement today and the subsequent RNS, we really are no more knowledgeable than friday evening. We already knew there was a skelton contract in place. The reveal today has virtually no meat on it. No delivery start date, no length of contract, no volumes, no actual firm monetary figures.

Some have attached themselves to the £50M figure cited in the bidstat and declared that ODX will get this even if they don't make a test. I'll just note the fact that £50M minimum is NOT stated in the RNS. If there was a rock solid guarantee of that, it would be price significant and have to be declared.

And can we FINALLY put a nail in the coffin that ODX in some super secret agreement with UK gov have been mass producing an antigen test and stockpiling it. The company has categorically said the gov has not even picked a test yet. ODX has no antigen LFT test to make, and certainly not a sovereign one. Lets hope its the mologic one (although that is starting to look less likely), otherwise based on the time they have been working on the TT for it, it'll be mid-june before ODX can even be in a position to deliver. Could be why the estimates have been lowered for this skelton compare to Surescreen, Surescreen are already knocking out LFTs. ODX isn't so much sitting on the bench, they are still waiting to be selected on their first team sheet. Once again uk gov is now holding odx to ransom. Last time ODX getting significant orders was predicated on MHRA (a gov dept) giving approval for home use by 25th dec, and this was the get out clause that the gov used to not order any more RTC tests. This time, ODX can do nothing until a uk gov proclamation of a test they want ODX to make. uk gov can now assess whether it's supply volumes from Surescreen are adequate as things change. I still expect ODX to eventually make an antigen test for the government

ODX as a manufacturing company nee

"and from any previous post you will see I only deal in facts. I not on here to ramp "

"anybody selling out now does not understand the life changing events"

Either he's having a laugh or he changed personalities mid-post :) ,

extremely unlikely that an antibody test will be used to determine re-vaccination for the masses, doing it simply on time since last vaccine is entirely easier logistically.

an LFT antibody test says you have antibodies or not, it doesn't say you have loads of them or just a few. And even putting that aside, given the massive logistics that we've seen (extremely successfully imo) from the NHS to do the vaccine roll out, putting in another stage of doing a test, wait 15 mins then go home or do an injection makes it much more cumbersome.

I assume no formal plan has been entirely formulated yet as none have been publicised, but if the flu vaccine program is anything to go by, it may become a case of offering vaccine to those at most risk on a regular basis. Long term, I wonder if they'll come up with a combi vaccine to do both.

25% related to RTC antibody. There is nothing in the public realm relating to production or % agreement that ODX has with DHSC for antigen testing, all we know is that DHSC has a contract for some capacity with ODX. Indications are that others will be part of a supply arrangement in addition to the 3 named.

appeasing personal whims should not be part of any gov approach