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If they would not make a profit on it, what the hell would they be making it for ????
Is school still happening are are they off again ?

Ton1c, I don't recall whether you were one of the people that constantly said they were going at full production week after week since oct, but people know who they are, and they have unsurprisingly kept their heads down in recent days when abingdon confirmed no actual orders just piplines, CK confirmed no gov test, and as was clear for some time, but yet was argued in the contrary by many, the mogolic TT was not done long ago with super secret NDA preventing disclosure.

It's people like this that go balls deep in an unfounded ramp for months after months, that just shrug their shoulders when it's proved without foundation and was always the case, that I do not like. They just move onto another ramp. According to BJ36, the bidstat contract reveal was not the silver bullet. I'm guessing he thinks the mologic TT is not a silver bullet otherwise he'd be straight on here telling us all about it. I want to know exactly what this silver bullet life changing announcement is that we are waiting for, that he mentioned several times, and remember he speaks for CK...at least..sometimes...apparently, even if it's just in his own world.

I also want to know where this 2M a week demand that is nailed on is coming from in 5 weeks time, there is no production evidence or order evidence to support it, in fact nothing to support it except a couple of tweets.

"A few weeks back you thought they had produced 8/12 million? "

And there above is an example of either selective reading or seeing something that wasn't written. According to some, ODX have been knocking out at maximum capacity week after week since oct. I estimated that by end of March those people are saying that ODX have output 12M units in total...without a single announced order, no Mogolic TT, no gov antigen test, no abingdon RTC orders and no production figures ever from ODX. Its clear that ODX are not making any covid related LFT at all in volumes.

I note that recently those that were promoting this nonsense have stopped doing so, and just move on to other rampiness.

ODX have 5 weeks to go from making no covid LFTs worth a damn, to "delivering 2M a week from the end of april", which is what they have tweeted on several occasions (but notably have not informed the market of this price sensitive information).

No gov antigen test....confirmed by CK
Abingdon indicated no actual orders for the antibody test, just 'pipeline' wishy washy chat.
ODX are in "discussion with a number of potential commercial partners " for the mologic test CE-ed yesterday, so nothing signed, surely these potentials could have signed in the last 4 months with a caveat of TT/CE approval ?
visitect antibody test...a test that apparently absolutely no one wants, has been available for months, but no orders announced, and ODX have said they will announce all significant orders.
In fact no covid LFT production figures or order confirmations EVER from ODX (except the 250K units from the distant past).

Is ODX going to deliver 2M a week in 5 weeks time, up from diddly squat, or are we going to start seeing some expectation adjustment shortly.

Can someone ask BJ36 exactly what "life changing" news is he expecting? A phrase he has used several times, including the same day the BOD cashed in 1M+ shares !

We've had the bidstat listing naming ODX. to which the SP said "meh". We've had the TT of mologic, the SP said "So ?". Walbrook has said that ODX does not have to put in a tender for contracts under it's agreement with UK gov, so no more bidstats there. ODX already tweeted 2M delivery by end of April, a large cohort of PIs here think that is already a done deal....where's the "life changing" bit, that either BJ or CK talked about (hard to know where BJs "conversations" with CK end and BJ begins)

As I've said since before christmas, ODX is a manufacturing company, its orders and units shipped that drive its numbers, although even I'm a bit surprised that the SP didn't do SOMETHING on the back of the bidstat numbers.

its not a case of one being superior, its a case of whether the Mologic tests meets the criteria. We are told by many here there will be various sovreign tests. The Surescreen one meets the criteria as does the Innova. For all the subtle ****** stuff you hear on here of the innova test being chinese crap, it was just recently called out in the most recent porton down study, just a few weeks ago, citing how accurate it. Being a 1st gen test, it requires going way up the nose/back of the throat and those 1st gen tests are often not self-administered correctly. Hence the move to tests that are more comfortable to do.

Given many here were adamant that the mogolic test was being appraised at porton down back in Nov, it's fate should have been determined long ago. Be poor if ODX continued to TT a test that had been failed by DHSC long before the notion of a sovereign test had been conceived. If it's passed, why has it not been announced...is it politics ?

Nelson, the gov have not announced which test they want ODX and Mologic to make. You would think if it was the Mologic test, that decision would have been made ages ago. We have been told that the mologic test was being trialled in Liverpool way back before christmas.

There was also 3 unnamed tests that were going thru phase 3 validation at porton down in early November around the same time that Innova and Surescreen were called out by name. Many here for months hung their hat on Mologic being one of the unamed ones, and given they were also predicting TT by jan, there was a ramp that ODX would be knocking out that test at full capacity many months ago.

I note that none of the usual suspects are prepared to argue the case that DHSC select the Mologic test. The current narrative is "we will make the soverign test, whatever it is". What that phrase implies is that if it is not the mologic test, ODX has just spent the best part of 4 months TTing a test that DHSC rejected.

The more I think of it, it is extremely important that DHSC selects the mologic test, or it'll be another damning indictment on ODX poor decision making.

Thankfully the extremely delayed TT is done.

As I've said before, what we don't have any clear idea of is whether ODX will be competing against Mologic who are the IP holder and produce the test under their own name. Mologic have a strategy of setting a cheap price for their tests as part of a laudable policy of making tests affordable for many markets. Given ODX will undoubtedly have to pay Mologic some licence fee to produce, by definition Mologic's costs are a bit lower than ODX. So a more expensive replica test possibly competing with a cheaper original test being sold by a company that sells tests cheaply.

Its possible that they have a pricing agreement, and regardless of all of the above, ODX clearly think they'll sell this new test, else why TT it, although there is recent history of ODX acquiring the ability to make tests that subsequently they could not sell. One assumes a buyer might prefer an origin to a replica, but as long as buyers see the ODX as a generic form of the mologic test it shouldn't be an issue, certainly whilst demand exceeds supply.

It is worth noting that today we have ANOTHER RNS that focuses on capacity, calling out each covid test, saying "capacity will be used to fulfil demand", but once again does not mention ANY current production ? How many opportunities has odx had recently in RNSs to state that capacity is being used at ANY level, but has consistently not done so. It's clear to anyone that there is no significant production going on at this time. A manufacturing company's most important number is it's output.

DHSC is odx's sole announced customer for any covid lft. ODX now has to wait until DHSC decides to reveal which test they want them to make. If it's mologic's test it'll be MUCH MUCH better as it'll mean they are immediately available to produce when DHSC announce it, rather than having to go thru another excruciating TT process, this time with a company with whom they have had no previous technical engagement.

Meanwhile surescreen is busy knocking out lfts.

"Can I order the DB7 or is it still s bit off yet?"

sure, but I don't know if tonka is still in existence.

What happened the latest bJ36 fan club thread ?

"If you can keep your head when those all around you are losing theirs...."

you just haven't made it to the front of the queue yet.

You’re not sure whether 50m. 75m or 100m tests a year is important ?????

That’s just restating a figure from last update and not the point.

Someone posted about ‘can’t understand the obsession about mologic TT’ , and I’m saying it’s about confidence in forward looking statements, citing several key statements in the past that have not come to fruition, and why it is important that a company comes good on such statements.

If you look at things dispassionately rather than getting wound up in emotional rhetoric like crucifying, the company does have a recorded history in failing to meet key expectations that the company itself set.

Anyway back on the original question. If the company can get a estimation about a timeline to do a TT so wrong, (from Christmas to approaching easter) it erodes confidence in other more complex forecasts. Can they get to 2M capacity by end of April, will they actually have 5.5M cash in hand at end of period, how accurate is the estimated loss of 2.1M ?

They do have a history of picking losing horses and also miscalculating timelines

CK is on record as saying he expected the initial order (only order to date) for RTC to arrive a lot earlier than it did.

He’s on record as having expected MHRA approval for RTC long before now.

He’s on record as saying he expected a mass vaccination program to require a mass antibody testing program ie he believed the “goes hand-in-hand” theory which never materialised. Did he make business decisions based on this ?

They decided to invest in an Elisa test and is on record as saying they misread the market and the market has moved on, and have had to create laboratory facilitates to make use of the test.

No formal statement on the visitect antibody test, but it appears at this time to be a poor decision to TT that, as they have not announced any orders.

So when you have a history of bad choices or misreading how things will play out, or misreading key timelines, why should people trust your forward looking statements?

because if it takes them 15 weeks and counting process was indicated as started 30th Nov) for mologic TT, how long for another test, if it turns out the mologic test isn't selected by DHSC. It's also a wider issue of confidence in the management decisions and timelines, remember CK first utterances on the TT was that it was possible as a christmas present.

GAd and ODX were announced as providing capacity last month, so the fact that GAD now has a listing on bidstat infers nothing about which test is selected.

Clearly selection of the mologic test would be beneficial to ODX, as they are progressing thru TT with that test, instead of starting again with a new test.

ODX RNS have spoke about capacity @2M a week by end of April
ODX twitter (!) spoke about 'deliverying' 2M a week from end of April.

2nd dose=2nd test.

thankfully moderna vaccine will come available in another few weeks. This will allow first timers to get that vaccine, allowing the AZ one o be kept for 2nd doses only.

Also haven't seen any science or publication to suggest that a +ve antibody lft result should infer no need for a 2nd test. Until recently, some on here were determined to say that a vaccine program was not over until everyone adult had 2 doses, in an attempt, if even just in their own minds, to cite evidence for a continued need for antigen testing.

Now it's maybe 1 test is fine, lets use antibody testing.

good to have confirmation that what I've been saying is true, TT is STILL not complete, no NDA holding them back.

"a little longer" is of course an indeterminable figure. I wonder could it be "a little longer" before it is complete ?

People aged 50 and over in England are now being invited to book their appointment for a Covid vaccine.
This is the final group on the priority list, which covers 99% at high risk of dying from Covid-19.

Everyone in the top nine priority groups should be offered a second dose by mid-July, up to 12 weeks after the first.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56428464

so 99% of the high risk people will be FULLY vaccinated by mid july, except those that cannot or the anti-vaccine flat earthers.

That's an incredible achievement by the NHS and one we should all recognise.