Member Info for TWatcher

hahaha, when caught accusing me of saying something I did not say, the reply is "whatever".

So quick to incriminate, so begrudging to admit you were wrong.

A bit of a juvenile apology, however its accepted.

Abingdon is more that just the point of contact, they are the consortium lead partner and they claim they developed the test (although Oxford was involved). Test development was funded by DHSC hence why a fee has to be paid to DHSC.

you need to read and comprehend what I said. If fact I said the exact opposite to what you are implying, I quote:-

There are 4 weeks in April, so thats 2M a week starting from the first week of April. 2) The wording doesn't say "from April", but "This April". All that statement refers to is output in April, not April and beyond.

2M a week

T0n1c "we may never get to see the price/margin for many of the orders, particularly when it comes to DHSC"

We know the price for the RTC test agreed with DHSC "In the UK, Abingdon Health completed the delivery of 1m units of AbC-19(TM) at a price of GBP5.15 per test to the DHSC in January 2021"

ODX won't have gotten that £5.15 of course, ODX is effectively acting as a sub-contractor to Abingdons lead, and we don't know whether or not that price is net of the UK gov licensing fee.

You can never know the exact margin unless it is expliciteedly cited, too many variables that we can never see,although I recall finncap suggesting around 6 months ago that it 75p or so.

"It’s minimum 25% - could be more."

Indeed, but the rest of the consortium are hardly over worked.

Actually got a bit excited there. ODX will only get 25% of any RTC order, so thats 150K to 320K units, or somewhere between 1/2 and 1.5 days production. Maybe that was that window of boxes that someone snapped.

If the Ciga bidstat deals are for RTC, then abingdon recently told us that they got £5.2 per test from DHSC. On that basis, 3M-£6.6M equates to 600K-1250K tests.

1250K test equates to this weeks ODX capacity.

Prehaps I missed it being previously discussed, but I see Ciga mentioned in 2 bidstat awards in march.

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W10/746651706
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W10/746651662

Ciga is a member of the antibody RTC. The Ciga website does not mention that they represent any other providers of antibody LFT, so its possible that these relate to RTC tests. Given the inconsistency with bidstat entries, you can't be sure if these are two separate tenders or one replaces the other, they were both published on the same day. One for £2.8M, one for £3.8M.

On the same date, Abbot got a contract for £62.M antibody LFTs, UNA health got 13M and SD biosensor got £9M.

So thats around £90M antibody LFT's announced mid-March, of which Ciga got between £3-£6.6M

"both could be correct at the same time and both could be wrong"

so the post was entirely pointless then, ?

that works both way, and does not suggest whether one or the other was correct.

In my entire share dealing experience on forums, apparently MMs have only ever held prices back, they have never, not once, used their nefarious ways to artificially inflate a SP. Or at least I've never heard anyone ever complain when they did.

Strange that. Or the whole MM thing could be a lot of Bol...err..rubbish.

Its not an overriding issue, it has simply come out of zero formal indications from the company. The implication is that it doesn't matter that ODX has no announced orders, it doesn't matter that they are have stated they are not currently producing any antigen product, in fact it doesn't matter if ODX never announces government contracts, they have some undisclosed outlet for endless amounts of LFTs and therefore they are merrily producing month after month at full capacity. Its a fantasy, that many who arrive here will simply assume as fact if it is not challenged.

"I have a feeling"

"I have a dream"

picture 1 is swabs
picture 2 is CD4
picture 3 is a mish mash of boxes, including rapid flow filters, centrifuge thingies etc.

One picture shows RTC tests. I'll be generous and say there's 24 boxes. I'll be really generous and say there 5000 tests in a box that's a generous 120K tests, or as ODX would say, 1/2 a days capacity at current projected capacity of 1.2M by end of March on a 5 day week.

I'm more interested in the carpark car count :)

It's the forward looking expectation for covid related revenue (not profit, revenue) that is the crucial thing. They are expecting <£1M revenue for the year excluding 250K RTC and development. ODX was expecting <£1M in sales, so I don't know why anyone would expect more. Its also clear that mologic TT took longer than it should (CK admitted it), so if they expected mologic sales in that £1M, that needs downscaled.

Regards RTC we've been told abindgon is the lead, and if abingdon can't get sales (and they only indicated contracts negoiations are at various stages in the 'pipeline'), then its a pretty straight line to no sales for ODX.

Mogloic, I can't see your argument, ODX have said in the statement announcing CE, "in discussion with a number of potential commercial partners ". This is now their own test, there is nothing preventing them for saying "we already have a commerical partner/s". You think its likely they have sold significant quantities but don't want to say in the statement announcing the CE, but are happy to mislead by talking about potential partners instead of actual partners.

Gov test.
There is no indication that this test has been selected as a Gov test. There is plenty to say that it has not yet past validation, or it's failed. If it was passed, Mologic/GAD had it CE-ed since just before christmas, they should be knocking it out. Also ODX could not have been clearer on the 15th of march " the Company still awaits confirmation that a COVID-19 lateral flow antigen test has passed the necessary performance evaluation. Accordingly, there are no COVID-19 lateral flow antigen tests that can be manufactured by Omega, on behalf of the Government, at this time. "

Visitect test. I think you are confusing it with what the company said about the Elisa test Company has said they got no traction for the Elisa test so developed in-house lab. Regarding Visitect test, all I know is that since 3rd September, no orders have been announced, which goes against any need to stockpile.

As to your last paragraph
"Omega might have 60/90 day accounts with their suppliers, what is the cost of product, no idea. There could be forward buying, clients securing orders with deposits, that cash won't be shown yet. Too many variables not to say 10m, or 3 million units. I will be astonished if there has be zero production, what that level is remains unknown."

Might haves and could bes. That sounds like evidence driven by what you can't see :)

I remain convinced that statements from both ODX and partners, and ODX own finanicial forecasting is strong visible evidence that capacity has nowhere near been used at it's maximum since Oct.

What about the workforce increase? Lets assumes that whoever was there before the increase is still doing whatever they were doing. Do people think that capacity rises from 200K to 2M by itself ? it needs a load of people to fit all the new machine and calibrate it. people are needed to staff the elisa lab t

"There is no evidence, your evidence is driven by what you can't see"

That's not correct.

RTC:
Abingdon is the lead on all RTC orders, as recently as 2 weeks ago published interims that said (in relation to RTC) "several contracts in late-stage negotiations subject to registration". They cited no actual current contracts. So we can be absolutely clear that abingdon has not been servicing any contracts for RTC from Oct until 9th of March except the 1M total order. ODX can not independantly do RTC antibody orders.

Mologic antigen test.
A story was pushed on here by some that this was TT-ed long ago and due to NDAs was not released, and ODX was actually making this test for a long time. ODX only annnounced CE this week, and have said "is already in discussion with a number of potential commercial partners". Clearly ODX has not been selling this test to anyone, and have not even signed off on contracts, even though they have known since way before Christmas that they would be making this test.

Gov test.
We all know that it hasn't been selected, ODX have said they do not have a test to make for this.

Visitect test.
ODX CE-ed this test on the 3rd of Sept (7 months ago). ODX have not announced any orders for this test. ODX has said they will announce all significant orders.

All that is substantial visible statement evidence from both ODX and their partners that they either do not have a test to make, or that the ones that are available to make, they have no orders.

Now if you look at the financials, for the year ending 31st march, ODX forecasts total revenue of £1.5M for all covid related activities. That includes the known 250K RTC, and some "development income" for a third party. Now even if you set just £2 ODX revenue per RTC test (ABDX indicated they are owed £5.2M for the 1M order, which would be £5.2 a test)., that tells you that income from ALL other covid tests is less than £1M, that's visitect sales, RTC sales etc. You are talking about well less that 1M sales. This is evidence that can be seen by anyone that looks.

The last place this capacity could be being used,, that i'll agree is a little less definitive, is this notion of stock building. In relation to Visitect antibody, the above demonstrates they have very little sales for it, so why stock build something you have been unable to secure sales for ? In relation to RTC antibody, Abingdon has said they are building stock to satisify "anticpiated demand", so its reasonable to suggest that ODX are also building stock. But whereas ABDX failed to project cash on hand for end of period which would given an indication of their stock build, ODX has projected 5.5M-6M for end of March. They started the period with 7M. That's not a cash burn I'd associate with a company that is building 10M lfts in the same period and just storing them.

So it's not accurate to say there is no evidence, on the contrary I'd say there is plenty of real evidence.

" I am surprised you can breathe you are so far up your own orifice"
Ah always start with an insult when replying, that's what my old professor used to say.

" its crystal clear your positon - I would hope you are wrong"
Funnily enough I'd like to be very wrong on this, but the evidence is what it is.

That's the 'TR1' post sorted for this week :)

anybody (clearly other than you) who has read my posts knows that i have been consistently sceptical that ODX is producing ANY LFT in volume.

And once again you are seeing something that is not there. You've choosen a follow up post where i was responding to Ton1c who suggested my origin 12M production(based on rampers saying capacity is being totally used) was high.
recalculating the figure was 9.4M, but 12M cumulative production by the end of March, on the fantasy that ODX was producing at stated capacity month after month.

All those comments are about capacity, even the bit you quote of me it says "I see many are still perpetuating the myth that ODX are working flat out knocking out tests at max capacity since oct 2020"

To be clear for you (I think everyone else is crystal), I am stating there is no evidence that capacity has been substantially used at all during the last 6 months. And there is strong evidence from the company itself and its partner Abingdon that there are no significant orders. End of this month cumulative capacity from Oct is around 12M units. I'd be surprised if ODX has produced even 20% of that. They have no orders, had no antigen test until yesterday, the visitect test isn't in demand. Abingdon have no orders, the uk gov antigen test has not been selected.

That's about as clear as i can be.

And we are apparently 5 weeks away from knocking out 2M LFT tests a week according to ODX twitter. I don't see it.

hint without a CE mark, they could not sell a single item, so nothing to do with a "higher margin".

Go back to your social distanced gym class.