Member Info for TWatcher

The tests are very accurate, Trickmatters posted the most recent report about LFTs that confirmed the accuracy, and then went very quiet when it was realised that they used was the innova test.

The problem isn't the accuracy, the problem is that it requires going uncomfortably high into the nose and way back into the throat. This is why the new criteria stipulates tests must be more convnient to administer.

However, having already accepted and validated the Innova test, it is still a valid test to be used.

I know they aren't tied to passport, but I am looking at it purely in terms of travel, and that for it to work it would need to be a universally agreed standard that can be confirmed by all points of entry.

I don't read the mail so no idea what the article is about.

r

I didn't say never...I said eve

"Wouldn't it be nice ..... If Colin selected one day in April (any day not fussy) and actually released a breakdown of where he was delivering 2M test to and of what type."

Don't be silly, ODX doesn't do production figures for covid LFTs...ever...and that's a fact.

We've heard about the notion of vaccine passports before. Sounds like something that will be needed. What's not clear to me is whether this is going to be a bespoke one for each country, and whether other countries have access.

It won't really solve the problem unless it's a global system like regular passports, that have a standard for reading them etc, and we know how well the world works in picking one system that everyone agrees on !

"Surely with 4 days break the chances that something will be released is massive never mind a possible leak."

All the major decision makers are on that 4 day break, so there will be no contract announcements. Only indirect things will possibly effect ODX, like new variant that escapes vaccine, or positive news regarding vaccines, or a misspoken word by a politican...and as always those things can go either way for ODX.

"on the plus side, the directors do not know the size and value of orders to come yet."

LOL...you see this as a plus that the directors of a company have no visibility regarding likely value or size of future orders , that cracks me up that someone would say that.

"The key point is, the money is taken up front."

The key point is that you have demonstrated you don't have the first idea of the operation of basic corporate incentive schemes.

LOL !!

No cost options are always sold at the same time they are taken. The option holder basically has the shares in all but name.
So the last thing you want to do is pay (in rhodes case) 15p a share for them, if you still want to hold them. You are already holding them for nothing. Its only when you want to cash out, that you exercise the options, which requires paying the 15p a share.

In rhodes case, his repeated exercise of options suggests he's going to cash out the lot over the next while.

He previously gave tentative hope that the Mologic TT would be a christmas present, the usual suspects jumped up and down with uncontained joy like kids seeing santa......that came and went.
many thought end of Feb was a certainty.
Recently, CK said it was taking "a little longer" (!) than expected.
Today is last day before Easter, so no Christmas present, no Easter Egg.

should we now be looking to May bank holiday ? What da fok is taking it so longer, next week ODX will enter the 18th week since we were advised that TT was under way, (30th Nov). It is the key question that everyone here wants answered, and no surprise the softball Q&A didn't ask the question of why the timeline is entirely different from that hoped for, and indeed MUCH longer than the previous LFT TT from mologic.

the lack of basic understanding of share incentives here is frightening, as is the lack of basic common sense.

These directors (to be fair, is the way board options normally works), have all been historically award no cost options. They cost nothing until they are exercised, and even then its a notional cost as they buy them at the exercise price (in rhodes case for 15.25p) on the same day they sell them to the market for the market rate.

"If its a share scheme, the money will have been previously taken from him"

did you not even bother to read the RNSs. Each one clear says they were options (save from the 300K sell that was ordinary shares). By definition he has the 'option' to buy them any time after they vest.

"TWatcher, he bought those shares at 15.75p has another million to go at the same price so a further £850k profit."

Actually he has paid nothing for the options. On the day he decides to exercise the options (i.e. cash them out), that's when he 'buys them' fot 15.75 and then immediately sells them.

"He ain't short of a few bob."
Definitely not after the 6 weeks.

15/02 cashed in 300K of options for £216K profit (also sold 300K of ordinary shares)
18/02 cashed in 450K of options for £341K profit
31/02 cashed in 300K of options for £201K profit

So looks like pretax profit of around £1M assuming he bought the ordinary shares in the 20-30p range.

DO you remember all the chat from the rampers, "but these guys only have a short time window in which to sell ?", will this director has sold in a 6 week period....given his recent history, the remaining 1M+ shares that he holds might well follow shortly. Exactly how short is that director sell window again ?

"Facts are the foundation for reasoned discussion"
agreed

Facts are they have a contract to produce antigen tests, the value of which is anywhere from £50M-£374M, over an period of time that has not been indicated.

The uk gov has not told them what antigen testthey are to make, therefore TT has not started on the test, unless it is the mologic test, for which TT is still in progress and nearly finished.

If its the mologic test, then clearly ODX believe they will be very soon in a position to produce that test in volume. If it is not the mologic test, and CK has indicated that it is possible it is not, then TT has to start from scratch. TT for the mologic test has so far taken 17 weeks. So possibly July ?

Once the gov test is selected, then ODX needs to wait for an actual order from uk gov.

ODX via twitter (not anywhere else) said on 2 occasions "This april we'll deliver 2M rapid LFTs a week". No way to interpret that other that 2M a week thruout april.
April starts on Thursday.
They don't have an antigen test to make, ODX have told us that themselves.
That means 2M antibody tests (minus whatever other non-covid lft stuff they produce).
They have repeatedly said they will announce all significant orders.

All of the above are facts.

Suggests that they have firm undertaking for an antibody order, but its just not formally signed. I think we can discount the visitect tri-antibody LFT, even CK doesn't bother to mention anymore. So its down to the RTC test. For every 2M ODX produces, the other manufacturing partners will produce 6M.... thats a big order that no one has announced yet, including lead partner Abingdon. If previously RNSs are anything to go by, Abingdon announces first.

Looks to me such an order is needed to start delivering 2M

The Government must be waiting for something ?
Either additional data from Omega or data on Avacta? Or a dark horse?

Surely the whole point of porton down validation is to independently evaluate the sensitivity and accuracy of the tests ?, they definitely are not going to rely on data from any of the providers, its not like vaccinations where they are all blind studies and the data is analysed to ensure the blind study didn't have any gaping holes such as ages and that the conclusions are correct.

And anyhow data would come from Mogolic, not Omega ?

£100M Antibody tender up.
"timed perfectly to coincide with the release of Omegas antigen test"

The above needs no further comment :)

"Q2 coming up how close is TT? (I get questioned daily on this)"
Nothing new stated in the answer, certainly nothing new about timeline that was not already revealed. A question of much more merit would have been "what happened that resulted in a TT that you were tentative hopeful for Xmas, is not going to be completed for easter ?"

Antibody testing -: any upcoming tenders ?
No new information

Do you envisage antibody testing being a short term requirement ?
Answered that he believes it will form a key part of the next phase of the vaccination. Later on he says "where I believe the need for antibody testing will come when we need to re-vaccinate". it is worth nothing he is previously on record as saying a he believed a mass vaccination program would require mass antibody testing. Now its revaccination. No question as to why he got this some horribly wrong ?... that would be the relevant question.

Is Alva currently producing anything, What is it and in what quantity.
"We are producing all the tests"
Laughable. a straight forward question is totally ignored...once again a manufacturing company flatly refuses to tell its Shareholders its historic or current production. There is nothing that prevents him from saying "we have stock of X million LFTs" or "we are currently producing X LFT per week", without revealing the mix, thus protecting any sensitivities. The implication is obvious for those that want to see it. Without an indication of quantity, "producing all the tests" means nothing.

Are we still expecting large orders from the ABC test as if so we are in such a strong position
Answer was to look into Q1 for more information. The Opportunity was there to say they had orders...did not take that opportunity.

clarify the profit on the ABC rapid antibody test
Our position hasn’t changed on this and would refer to the Finncap note (22 June 2020) which suggests around a 50% gross margin as being a good guide. Remember we are supplying part (all be it a key part) of the overall product.

So ODX does not actually supply a complete test...this may be another reason why Abingdon sells to UK gov for £5.15, but ODX gets significantly less than that. Also worth noting that CEO is happy to refer to finncap, and yet I was chastised for using Finncap figures for estimated margins, as oppose to some random guys £2.50.

So over all softball questions the answers to which gave absolutely no new information, and the key questions remained either unasked or unanswered, but it seems to have appeased those that are easily appeased, so job done.

deramp ? detailing a bigger order for RTC (potentially 320K) than odx has ever announced themselves ?