Member Info for TrustILie

As a bare minimum we should receive FY22 trading update in the next 2/3 weeks.............

Anyone like to guess when we are likely to receive the admission document and re-listing ?

It wouldn't be surprising if a corporate transaction is in the offing before the next trial. Clearly we are trading at a heavy discount and I would imagine Avion may want a larger piece of the pie if they are to continue working with us and fund the next trial, perhaps they might want global rights or perhaps a complete buyout...........

Zengas - Could be spot on and a great guess. Perhaps they are playing a similar tactic to chad and niger. We thought that signing up renewables deals in chad would perhaps help towards the chad deal but in hindsight it clearly didn't especially after all that's happened. Let's hope that South Sudan government if we do renewable investments are happy to sign off the Petronas deal, I know reality doesn't quite work like that but you would hope that it would or should influence there decision making and hopefully they see us as a friendly partner.

Interesting Article which mentions Savannah, I wounder if we could go for additional gas assets in Nigeria we have proven to be really good operators and Nigeria is really keen to push gas as the transition fuel. They even mentioned at some point that this is the decade for Gas.......

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/01/03/tackling-the-challenges-of-nigerias-energy-transition-plan/

Wouldn't mind that as that would be the deal would be fully priced in the SP. Although I am hoping that they will have other rns's perhaps a few renewable deals to help us natter on this board.......

It’s awfully quiet on here…….. need some big news now and preferably admission document. I know they have said H1 giving a very broad time frame but I am hoping that it comes much sooner, personally I took H1 as broad terminally of when the transaction would fully complete and not the timeframe it would take for the admission document but I could be wrong. I think they have intentionally worded it broadly to allow Petronas to negotiate with South Sudan government if they will support the transaction or not if not than a simple case of termination of spa and relisting

Considering they are taking this drill with extreme caution seems to me that they think they are onto something big and hence only want to communicate to market once they have all the data. Could be a positive sign as you don’t ask predator to run comms by the unless you think this could be a potential game changing drill

Whatever happens the main point being we need acquisitions to be fully complete. As for the immediate value attributed to the share price it's anyone's guess really we can only go by references in the market at present point in time. The importance still lies with completing deals till the end, the share price may not price in the full value of the acquisitions on re-list but as the weeks and months go by we start to reduce debt considerably sooner or later true value will always prevail, and even if we re-list at say 40p for instance in success case if South Sudan acquisition completion I am not complaining as I know we are in a multi year commodity cycle and I strongly believe that in 2023 commodity stocks will do particularly well as a lot of E&P balance sheets will be de-leveraging with Brent being above $80 or so etc.

Plus imagine the scenario of closing south sudan successfully and getting to H2 next year Niger starts to ramp up with pipeline completion on the horizon.......

We know the prize here the question is can AK execute for many here I believe it's not above the wait, it's about the nervousness of the deals that we are going for coming to fruition especially the territories we are targeting make people jittery but personally I take comfort in the continued growth of our Nigerian business which underpins over position and as for everything else it will run it's course........

As for news it's safe to say that know it will be the new year hopefully, as much as I would like to get news on sudan deal asap. I wouldn't mind if they started to drop a few other rns on perhaps other renewable projects that we have signed up. Seen a couple of new companies created yet we don't know what they relate to SAVANNAH ENERGY RT LIMITED (14014394) & SAVANNAH ENERGY WN LIMITED (14455664), perhaps additional renewable deals. Let's start adding a few additional pennies to our £1 target.

Agreed zengas couldn’t have articulated it better myself, peer group valuations are to go by regardless of market sentiment currently. I believe comparing us to other African producers you have mentioned our production will match or exceed our peers once the Sudan deal completes with nearly half the debt as some so their current market capitalisation is a good gauge on what our sp should be in the eventual success case. Clearly AK feels that based on what’s on offer in terms of deals on Africa we can easily reach £1 sp through acquisitions alone. The story is simple there is plenty of deals on offer currently with the only challenge being government approvals as African governments are clinging onto oil majors like a bad ex girlfriend even though the relationship with majors have run their course. Let’s hope sentiment and attitudes change towards independents like savannah who clearly have the operational, technical and financing capabilities to take on big projects, the only caveat being do they have the trust and buy in from host governments which is proving to be slightly tricky not just for us but for any independent of our size attempting to take on such assets.

Agreed Agadem, hence I believe he will have to re-admit us without formal sign off. He can’t keep on stringing this along regardless of deal status. What was slightly confusing is that they have a very wide timeframe on the suspension rns saying and admission document in H1 2022, but I simply hope it meant that the admission doc and relish would be in early Jan 2023 with official deal closure in June 2023.

Also what slightly did confuse me was I believe last time you spoke to IR you said you got the impression that Andrew doesn’t want to come to the market and relist without formal government sign off on SS deal, for all we know that could take much longer with no guarantees so if sign off is literally not over the finish line he can’t keep us suspended.

Perhaps if we don’t hear any material news by the end of first week of Jan, you could do us a favour and check state of play with IR if you don’t mind. It would be nice to get an update on how things look in the new year. You could check in on the Sudan deal and also ask if there is any change in how we are operating in chad…….

I believe the admission document would be more or less ready as all the detail required for it would be when we signed our SPA so no actual reason that they can't release it. My only guess is if we don't get it in early Jan would be purely because Andrew doesn't want to re-issue another admission document if the deal is likely to fall through. So my guess is Andrew will wait to see what way the south sudan government are leaning and is probably waiting to here of outcome from petronas to see how they meeting in december went and whether they are on board with this.

Otherwise there is not other reason not to release an admission document as we would have all the technical and financial details ironed out with petronas then only is a SPA executed.

Besides who knows perhaps AK has got other smaller acquisitions lined up in the region of 5 - 10k bopd production, it wouldn't surprise me if AK is hunting to backfill the potential 10k production that we missed out on withe the petronas stake in chad.

Agadem - the 20 - 26p you talk about would be undervaluing our nigerian business progress we have made alone, so even though it not out of the realms of possibility, it will simply be down to those aggressive traders who just want out after constant suspensions on re-list, but the reality of the business is that even at suspended price of 26p is underpinned regardless of any future chad or south sudan news we get. Personally I am not worried too much about the downside from our suspended valuation.

Also you got to remember that chad deal when you say probable to complete you forget that the chad ministry since we struck the deal never even mentioned and positive sentiment towards us. They were never happy from the get go. I hope that Andrew and Petronas greased the necessary wheels before striking the deal. As South Sudan government would have not appreciated if they were in the dark when the finer detail was being worked out, and could make life difficult……………..

So hopefully this time they have those links in government that see sense and see Savannah as an opportunity and not a hinderence, if Africa is ever to have energy security they will need to rely on and trust capable independents.

I believe sudan deal changes our profile as you already know our current production is gas weighted with DOBA oil production coming in recently, so at times we are treated by the market as a steady utility company. With the 12k of Doba production and what’s to come with Sudan acquisition which should be 50k our weighting becomes more on oil rather than gas, with Brent continuing to however above $80 into next year and an backdated economic date which would probably bring the price down on closing similar to Exxon deal.

Hence I feel that the Petronas deal if successful on admission is going to have a greater impact than the chad deal did when we re-listed and when closed.

Sorry I meant fully price the sudan deal in scenario 3 not doba deal

Agadem as much as I don't to SP predictions, here is my assessment based on known facts and current state of play, please see below:

Scenario 1 - 30 - 35p re-admission with SS deal termination, this assumes that doba state of play stay as they are meaning Chad government don't stop production and take material action greater than revoking visa for our staff etc........... This is also based on our latest operational update which shows Nigerian business exceeding expectations..

Scenario 2 - 50 - 60p - Scenario 1 + re-admission without government approval.

Scenario 3 - 80 - 90p - Scenario 1 + re-admission with positive government coverage in support of the deal even though formal sign off is end of June 2023. If upon re-admission we hear some positive commentary that the ss government are willing to open us with open arms that should provide catalyst even if they sign off officially in June 2023 . Part of the problem with the chad deal was that the government at any point failed to bat for Savannah which was partly why the SP was struggling to price the doba deal fully. I am keen to see a few sound bites ministry at least to get a feel for the deal. Positive sound bites on re-admission can help fully price the doba deal immediately on re-listing....

South Sudan's current production is round 150k bopd per day, assuming our net interests through the 3 holding companies let's be conservative and assume is roughly 50-60k bopd. South Sudan wants to reach production levels of pre war which was roughly 350k bopd per day, with additional investment the potential in the Sudanese assets is enormous as highlighted the infrastructure is more than enough and far superior to be able to cope with 350k bopd. So with the right investments and allowing investments from independents like savannah it could start to re-capitalise on it's vast reserves and potential exploration upside.

This deal in theory is too good to be true in my opinion and personally I still put the odds very low of it coming in probably 20% chance it happens, what's interesting is that the delegation that went out to see Petronas to see why they are leaving returned to Juba on week of 12th December to brief the president and the rest of the ministry. They have been radio silent so personally I believe formal approval or not we should hear from the ministry on which way they are leaning currently. Either way if they decline ministerial approval I see another termination of SPA in early Jan

Chad had IMF loan approved, I am sure the IMF will not appreciate the uncertainties to potential oil revenues that might occur if chad drag on the dispute of doba acquisition also don’t see a scenario of complete shut down at Doba fields. If push came to show we should take them through and international arbitration using world bank as leverage. Something which could potentially get the chad ministry to back off as it could hamper their future funding needs through world bank……….

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/12/22/pr22458-chad-imf-executive-board-completes-first-and-second-reviews-of-ecf-arrangement