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I am pleased with the south Sudan acquisition as we slowly start to transition to east africa having a geo spread across africa will improve our overall risk profile.

It's important to remember that South Sudan could have an alternative export route in a couple of years through Kenya which could unlock billions of barrels of more oil fields in south sudan through the lapset oil pipeline proposed

https://energycapitalpower.com/south-sudanese-oil-to-unlock-development-in-northern-kenya/

Can't say for certain obviously but even if they did it would be a small raise, although from a pure cash flow perspective I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't as reasons outlined in previous posts.

It makes sense why we have gone for another biggie, we have effectively paid of Chad /Cameroon assets and we will be producing 22,000 bopd net at current oil price of $80. The Petronas acquisition is said to be $1.25bn but similar to chad deals I wouldn't be surprised if the deal is backdated to 1st Jan 2022 being the effective transaction date, I would imagine similarly the headline $1.25bn figure would come down significantly by a few hundred million as oil price has been strong throughout the year or at least above $80 brent pricing. We know we have $400m unused facility and we don't need to staff the petronas south sudan assests as we are not operators so that makes it relatively inexpensive to intergrate whilst adding material production numbers. The timing of this deal seems even more transformational and looking at the finn capp note AK has struck it now because we have more or less paid of Chad assets or will do in the next few months.

It is important to remember last time we got suspended in June 2021 when we were in proposed discussions to acquire the chad acquisitions but the SPA was signed 6 months later in December 2021, we received the admission document 3 weeks later end of December 2021 and resumed trading 3 weeks after SPA. I am confident we will be re-admitted in Jan 2023 similarly obviously the transaction officially closes much later similar to Chad deal.

Zengas - I am hoping that they have learnt a bit from the Chad acquisitions and that they have done most of the leg work already, as I understand the South Sudan assets may be slightly easier to integrate as we would not be operators might, hoping for a much quicker re-admission preferably in Q1 2023

South Sudan acquisition, this will be monster. Good luck all Andrew delivering big time now….

Couldn’t agree more zengas, I believe that we wanted to wrap up Exxon independent of Petronas, as I believe they want to move on other fronts mainly other hydro carbon acquisitions, I am interested to see what we go for next personally I would like to go for another big one to get us to that 100k Bopd. It would be a dream we can land Gabon assets from Carlyle. It’s a 50,000 Bopd asset also has pipeline infrastructure sounds like the kinda asset Andrew would definitely consider also West Africa which means it’s right on our door step ticks all the boxes for us. Come on Andrew go big again…….

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2022/12/09/assala-denies-carlyle-is-selling-out,109872444-art

Am I reading this right, I believe our Exxon purchase was at $360m and we know our interest was backdated to 1 Jan 2021.

Todays rns says “Savannah Energy Finance (as borrower), the Exxon Lender (as lender) and EACMI (as marketing agent) entered into an up the US$170 million Prepayment Facility Agreement to fund Completion of the Exxon Acquisition in accordance with the Exxon SPA.”

$360m - $170m = $190m reduced looks amazing knocked off more than half the financing already ???? Am I reading this correctly ?

If so the Petronas acquisition when completes should be similar and that was I believe $260m as per original spa and that was backdated to 1 January 2021. So if half of that is knocked of

$260m x 50% approx same as Exxon completion = $130m

So effectively on completion of both acquisition our debt would roughly be $170m (Exxon) + $130m (Petronas) = $300m in total debt and original price was $626m for both acquisitions.

If that’s right that is a bloody bargain especially based on 28k Bopd production combined 75% = 21k Bopd

Looking strong and no wonder Andrew is keen to add another hydrocarbon acquisition, I reckon we can go for a big one now probably in the region of 30,000 -50,000 Bopd.

Good luck all it’s going to get really interesting know as I believe the rns newsflow will be more fluent and frequent now

Expecting a strong afternoon ahead of next week……

I have seen Savannah tweeting about LNG recently could they be foreshadowing, I would love our next acquisition to be a large scale LNG project as we know Europe will now start to move to africa for gas imports

Looks like they will proceed with Exxon completions as now the expected admission date is 13th December which is the longstop date. Could see admission document tomorrow morning covering just Exxon acquisition for now.

Clearly we are definitely doing the work in the background and sounds like as i alluded to in one of my earlier post andrew is probably more aware of getting ministry pre-approvals before committing to purchase any acquisition from said country, he would be looking to avoid a repeat of chad / cameroon acquisition. I am sure we are probably screening a few additional ones and wouldn't surprise me if we have something else lined up

Looks like our next acquisition is not likely to be zafiro in Equatorial Guinea Exxon now opting for a wind down rather than sell. I hope our next acquisition whatever it may be is able to close quicker and I am sure Andrew would have also learnt a few lessons on what it means get an oil acquisition over the line in Africa, perhaps it might be easier to sound out the host governments and get prior soundings and pre approval before diving into and committing to other acquisitions as it helps getting over hurdles quicker. Also I have notice that Andrew has so far gone for 2 assets with infrastructure pipelines I.e accugas and now doba could over third acquisition also be another producing asset with infrastructure the only other that comes to mind and has been routed previously is South Sudan as Perronas wants to exit I am sure there are plenty of others that we would have been screening as well

Zengas - thanks for clarifying either way I think the chad side of things will still settle due to the chad debt restructuring granted that the case is related to Cameroon is separate to the issue.

Lekoil might turn up to be a great investment in the long run wouldn’t surprise me if we acquire it full eventually. And could turn out to be a a pennies on the pound deal which could generate significant revenues.

Our smallest investment yet could be a crown jewel if all things plan out especially if we start to get control of OPL 310 and as we know we have access to capital to develop.

https://guardian.ng/news/amidst-nigerias-oil-production-woes-geils-output-to-hit-25000bpd/

Also I like the bit in the article which says “That should help unlock hundreds of millions of dollars of additional funds from the World Bank and bilateral lenders.”

We have lodged our case with icsid which is effectively the contracts dispute function of the world bank. So we are saying to chad either you take the deal as is or we are potentially threatening your future funding the choice is yours small exit fees or 100s of millions. I would imagine the icsid would also potentially say this case has no legal basis so best to walk away. This is why I believe Exxon and Petronas lodged the case on the 11th November and I think this is what will expedite approval.

Could chad restructuring debt with glencore and thus receiving additional imf funding prove to be a catalyst to now for a speedy conclusion. Clearly chad treasury was strained and thus had a strong stance on exit fees but now that the government funding needs are sorted I think we will see a conclusion in the next few weeks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/imf-says-chad-debt-deal-cuts-risks-protects-against-oil-price-fall-2022-11-14/

Here is why I think so -

1) Glencore is a commodities trader and they can’t risk problems which could hamper production of oil in chad as far as I know Exxon are not investing to increase production which means that glencore debt would be at material risk in terms of production falling which is a reality as Exxon and Petronas want to leave so they will not pour money into maintaining or increasing production, savannah on the other hand have made it clear that they intend to increase production and development which would certainly ease glencore concern.

2) the imf is now satisfied that the glencore debt is restructured so they can make additional funding available to chad the last thing the imf would want is for the chad ministry to have a long and expensive court case with Exxon and Petronas where contractually they have no grounds threatening both glencore and them.

I would have assumed that Glendora would have seemed some assurance as part of the restructuring to ensure that there isn’t any threat to production.

Based on above posing scenarios I would like to assume that they will not draw this out any longer and should see a conclusion imminently

Think we will start to gently head up from hear now in anticipation of chad deal closure an update due shortly as we head towards a critical phase expecting it to start to shift up. Should expect some movement imminently...........

My guess is that Exxon and Petronas are willing to pay the exit fees, but both Cameroon and Chad are basically trying to hold them at gun point and trying to be cheeky and negotiating more trying to squeeze every dollar, based on the contracts Exxon and Petronas don't have to pay anything but they are willing to pay something as a gesture of goodwill and in order to bring closure.

Exxon and Petronas have lodged this case to basically say to Chad and Cameroon that our final offer is on the table take it or leave it contractually we can walk away and pay nothing, so I believe it's there way of saying we have our final offer on the table take it or we go to the courts you get nothing plus you will have to fund legal fees in a long our process which they will not win anyway as exit fees were not binding in any of the contracts.

I truly believe that is what's going on and we will not see this go through a long drawn out tribunal and can see conclusion shortly.......

Tier search savannah energy jobs LinkedIn on google it will take you to the page, apologies the link does not work when I copy on paste. Plus there is a senior buyer role in France as they set up a France hub and we know chad has French connections……..