Member Info for TrustILie

Tier - unfortunately I think doing M&A is central to savannah strategy, and it’s just something we have to accept. It’s brilliant when it all comes in but painful when dragged out for longer. I think for most on here clearly some frustration walking into 2 suspensions so completely get the twitching also we didn’t really get to appreciate the chad deal and walked into another suspension so that probably has led to uncertainty for some folk as I know some were eagerly waiting how the completion of the chad deal would impact the sp, however we were immediately suspended on the Monday morning so investors didn’t really get to see what the markets reaction to the chad deal would have been. Now clearly all eyes are on South Sudan for the immediate future and if the deal is still going ahead than a new admission document with re-listing on the cards. Depending on the final purchase price of South Sudan and the effective adjustment date it wouldn’t surprise me if savannah continue more M&A probably not another big deal but a few smaller ones.

Savannah continues to hire with another job ad looking for business development analyst, job description suggest the focus on M&A

https://uk.linkedin.com/jobs/view/business-development-analyst-at-savannah-energy-3537258706

So whatever happens to chad or South Sudan Andrew is set on doing M&A, an aggressive but interesting strategy especially with us being focused on Africa. As always if they play it right it could be transformational and sentiment will truly depend on how South Sudan deal goes with Petronas if that is smoother, than the confidence for further M&A assets may rise

One thing I always keep an eye on is Seplat share price as we previous to suspension our share price use to broadly track each other. Please see below:

Savannah Energy Plc SP @ suspension on 12th December = 26.3p

Seplat SP @ time of Savannah suspension on 12th December = 85p
Seplat SP currently 104p
Seplat SP increase since our suspension = 104p/85p = 1.22 or 22% increase since our suspension.

If i was to use the same percentage increase on our suspended price our sp regardless of chad would be = 26.3p * 22% = 32p

I believe if we were currently trading our sp would be about 32p regardless of chad just on nigeria asset. Seplat at the time of suspension was our closest peer and we did broadly track in sp, so a pretty decent indicator.

Looks like GPOC one of the operating companies is really ramping up infill drilling programme in South Sudan lookalike they have commissioned a second well already on the back of the first one. South Sudan really is looking to materially increase production this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/khoiriali_rss-gpoc-petronas-activity-7044966103084609537-35YT?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Come on Andrew land South Sudan smoothly and quickly and let’s see the SP multiples on deal closure and material operational programme that is currently commissioned with significant net production upside to our share in South Sudan

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/khoiriali_rss-gpoc-petronas-activity-7044966103084609537-35YT?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Nothing has changed in my opinion than what was already known Chad nationalising exxon assets means nothing we ultimately control Savannah Chad Inc, so the oil revenue receipts and payments to employees are done through us, this is just another statement from Chad to stand their ground. My worrying point would be is if they halted operations altogether on Doba, which I doubt they would as mentioned previously it's not in their interest, so until Savannah will keep calm and carry on.

Eventually for completeness Andrew will need to clarify 2 points for everyone:

1) They mention daily production has increased under savannah operatorship by 10%, how is this been achieved have savannah started a work programme using the local staff as we know the savannah international staff are banned from entering the country. It's implying that savannah was able to increase production since completion which is 3 months ago by cicra 3,000 bopd. That's not bad if you ask me 1,000 bopd per month let's hope they can continue the same run rate............... Will savannah continue a work programme with local staff whilst in dispute ? Andrew will need to clarify

"daily production averaging 29,349 barrels per day since 9 December 2022, an increase of c.9% as against the equivalent period prior to Savannah taking control of SCI.

2) How long will the tribunal at ICC take is there an expedited way of getting our case to ruling considering the aggressive nature in which the chad government is currently operating ? Another question Andrew will need to clarify ?

I presume Andrew is currently focused on aligning all things south sudan and hence is not willing to delve too much into Chad situation especially as already the article from africa intelligence highlighted Savannah is not suffering any financial losses from the current chad stance. We will probably get more sound bites from him post admission and re-listing hopefully with the south sudan deal in the bag................

Streetsofgold - I agree I for one do think the approval could take longer and may be even in H2 of this year. However they did say that the admission doc would be H1 so once the admission doc is out there there is nothing stopping us from resuming trading of course formal government sign off could take longer and may not come alongside the admission document which I for one have fully priced in. Conservatively a lot on here would assume new admission document and resumption of trading H1 and formal sign off by end of H2 2023 as the working assumption, obviously resumption of trading would be a priority for most in H1 and formal sign off will depend on South Sudan government and their willingness to sanction the deal as quickly as possible. As ever nothing is ever of the table when doing deals in Africa one can only going by piecing together the bits of information publicly available and hope for the best outcome for all concerned.

In terms of termination of SPA and no deal that would be interesting as South Sudan clearly want to attract foreign capital to develop there resource so it would be a hard sale to other investors to pour there capital in if they were to reject our deal, it would surely weaken there hand with other potential future partners.

Regardless of what happens with South Sudan sign off savannah is still is a far stronger position than it was as suspension. 11,000 Bopd from chad, Niger ramping up in time for pipeline completion, debt continues to reduce, potential new accugas contracts.

Looks Like Savannah visited the pipeline work alongside the Niger minister, we are probably due an update on Niger forward plan as part of the admission document or followed straight after by the looks of it. The pipeline is more or less going to be complete in the next couple of months, so I would imagine they are probably working out a forward plan on starting to drill in niger, I wonder if we will secured some pipeline capacity early on to get our crude to market in short order following drills......

https://twitter.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1638491967578415109?s=20

Savannah really starting to step up comms now is this a sign that the admission document will land in the next 2 or 3 weeks ? let's hope so........

It's also worth remembering that the current stance on the chad deal is not really Andrew fault, when we had struck the deal chad had a president, who then died during the period where our deal was being finalised, I would suspect if the old president was still alive than the deal would have gone through as they would have had initial discussions with him. Since his death the military has taken over with the next elections deemed to be in 2024. So it could play out in the following ways. The military junta will have until the next elections which are next year to make there mind up either they continue to play the game and get nothing or they walk away with whats being offered before the next government.

Looks like CNPC are looking to drive oil sector in Sudan and South Sudan, bodes well for South Sudan as having them as our consortium partners post acquisition will mean a strong drive to increase oil production, the conversations were constructive and fruitful. Also having there headquarters in Khartoum will help as we know China has a huge influence on african countries having a head office in Khartoum which is Sudan is hugely beneficial for South Sudan as currently the oil pipeline to export south sudanese crude oil is through Sudan, so they will effectively play the peacemaker role as it would be in there interest if they increase production in south sudan you need an avenue to export the oil to international markets. The poster also mentions "are new project in the pipeline ?"

https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1638157225159000064

As already posted on the previous link they have sanctioned an infill programme alongside other consortium partners at GPOC which is one of the 3 operating companies in south sudan,

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/samudra-sonowal-4161b071_drilling-oilfield-oilindustry-activity-7039697410075316224-hZzW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

They could also go for other acquisitions which don't require us to be be suspended or another reverse takeover, for example they could revisit the Eni Tunisia deal once more, perhaps Zafiro in equatorial guinea, and I am sure there is plenty more in the wings that are available and being divested.

For now I am happy with this outcome, the oil proceeds are still going to Savannah Energy and I do believe that the chad government will come to the table eventually they cannot afford to sacrifice the oil revenues and will be forced to the negotiating table it's a simple game of wait it out, until than just continue to benefit from the free cashflow generated from this field.

Savannah Looking to strengthen legal team by hiring 1 or more paralegals.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-jurgenson-2207865_energy-finance-africa-activity-7043876589360578560-cGfz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Looks like a slow and steady news stream coming through now as we come to the end of Q1. Seems like they are stepping up newsflow on all fronts. Hopefully a sign that savannah is coming out of hibernation and things starting to rev up now as we head into Q2 with anticipation of admission document and re-listing.

Zengas - Question could shares change hands in period of suspension i.e from institution to institution, just wondered if that is possible when the company is suspended, basically my question is can offer market trades occur between institutions in the suspended period ?

Looks like GPOC which Petronas has a 30% stake in which will be acquired as part of our acquisition has started infill well drilling programme GPOC operates block 1 & 4. Looks like there must be an agreement amongst the consortium CNPC, ONGC, and Nilepet to start the programme as already mentioned south sudan is looking to increase oil production from 150,000 bopd to 300,000 bopd in short space of time.

Seems like first well infill well on the block was commissioned by the operating company GPOC on February 26, 2023 and judging by the timeline of the post it takes roughly 2 weeks to drill a single infill well on this block and test. A good sign that the other consortium partners seem to have already sanctioned infill well to increase production and seem to be on board on how south sudan can increase oil production. If we can get multiple infill well drilled simultaneously we can easily increase production quite quickly .

Also the post mentions the well flowed at expected rates and the poster also mentions it has "marginally exceeded expectations"

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/samudra-sonowal-4161b071_drilling-oilfield-oilindustry-activity-7039697410075316224-hZzW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

We just need this deal signed sealed and delivered and it can be transformational for Savannah on the short medium and long term, this has given me confidence in terms of the consortium partners all seem to be on agreement on infill drilling programme to increase production and already seemed to have sanctioned a programme by the looks of it. So even at closing if our current net share of production is 50,000 bopd, this number can easily be 75,000 - 100,000 bopd net in the next 12 - 18 months.

Come on Savannah let's see that admission document and sign off, also this is discounting all the other pieces of the jigsaw still to factor, chad infill drill programme, accugas contracts, renewable projects, etc..........................

Interesting that they leave out Petronas name when listing ambitions to align policies and governance similar to other NOC’s. Is this a first sign of Petronas leaving as there name is clearly omitted from the communication.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7041014848524054528?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7041014848524054528%29

Seems like there is progress happening in the background on renewable project in Niger. Interesting article posted on linkedin in today from the Niger ministry.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/meer-minist%C3%A8re-des-%C3%A9nergies-du-niger-530408244_meer-niger-energyefficiency-activity-7042458311270502400-QqNd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Thanks Komakino - I think that view may have been prior to the chad and south sudan deal when AK was actively pursuing deals to enlarge the company. I personally believe post south sudan completion it would help to be main listed just for like for like peer comparison and exposure, more scrutiny and regulation is not also a bad thing when you are growing a business as aggressively as andrew is through acquisitions, it could have a positive effect on share price as investors would likely view it as a even sounder investment................. Who knows perhaps they are producing a prospectus alongside the admission document for main listing hence the additional time required..................................................

Question for the more educated folks on here, I am guessing that post this transaction we are not going to be re-listed on the aim market, and are targeting a main listing is that correct or am I reading too much into it, i just wondered as we had the below rns in december. So chad deal completed in december and the south sudan spa was announced are we now going for a main market listing and we are not going to be listed on aim, once the new admission document is released. My guess would be after the south sudan deal our enlarged company will no longer benefit from the aim market even if we are to go for more deals after south sudan completes, those deals are likely to be smaller than the enlarged company on completion of south sudan, so is there any benefit of continuing with an aim listing.

Also I am guessing that with an enlarged company they would than want a main listing which would make them more accountable to governance and reporting standards etc etc, and also it would become easier for brokers to value savannah for it's true value being a main market player.

Does anyone know if we are going to return to a main market listing or carry on being traded on aim on re-admission or if anyone can draw it out from IR the next time they speak to them that would be great

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAVE/readmission-savannah-energy-plc-84woaaq2mw4gj9k.html

Nilepet which is the south sudan national oil company and likely to be our partner on completion saying all the right things lets hope they are true to their word

https://energycapitalpower.com/nilepet-is-a-strong-partner-for-international-players-says-md/

Ian - It's hard to pin down exact dates so I for one just try to piece together bits of the pieces like a jigsaw and make an educated guess. But I am viewing the south sudan conference date which is 14th - 16th June 2023 as the key event and working backwards from there, also 6 months of our suspension would be 12th June 2023. So whatever the status if the deal we should have had an update by than. If we are to use those dates as the finish line and work backwards assuming the deal is still going ahead than, one would imagine they would need to get the admission doc out in April 2023, and schedule a GM meeting 3 or 4 weeks later in May to approve the deal, which would hopefully allow the government of south sudan to sanction the deal in June.

What I find interesting is that Andrew speaks in the morning on day 2 from 09:00-10:00 - Focus on Exploration: South Sudan’s Reserves and Exploration Acreage. Than later that day there is another slot which is 16:00-16:30 - Deal Signing and Conference Closing https://www.southsudanoilpower.com/speakers/ So wouldn't surprise me if they use that window for the PR and media coverage to sanction and market deal, again this is all hypothetical and i could be talking out of my crack but like everyone on here i would like to come back as soon as possible, but more importantly i want to come back with a deal intact and a strong return to the market hopefully covering multiple fronts, from additional accugas contracts, niger forward plan, chad forward plan, renewable deals and strategy, south sudan deal and strategy. If they have fires burning on multiple fronts than the admission document would be a solid wagyu steak and hence happy for it to take a few weeks if the value realisation on re-listing is forthcoming of the bat.

I believe it roughly takes roughly about 2 weeks to from start to finish to drill an infill well in South Sudan. So it’s a pretty quick turnaround to get more wells online simultaneously to materially increase production quickly……….