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Personally I have forgotten about Chad/Cameroon assets for the time being, as we know the Exxon debt facility was amended to take into account the chad nationalisation so until we get an award for progress from parties on the assets.

Focus for the company for the time being seems to be Petronas South Sudan closure and other potential acquisitions, growth in the accugas business through additional gas contracts.

Hopefully this bodes well for us and things move a little bit quicker towards approval. There is a clear need for more investment and there plans to takeover oil fields as soon as 2027 is a bit to ambitious without the use of foreign investment and companies

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/south-sudan-walks-back-plan-to-take-over-oil-fields-by-2027?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg

South Sudan Walks Back Plan to Take Over Oil Fields by 2027

South Sudan needs more investment before it can take over oil fields from private operators and should renew contracts with the companies that expire in 2027, according to a national planning body.

State-owned Nile Petroleum Corp. “is still a small entity” and requires funding to reach the capability of companies such as China National Petroleum Corp. and Petroliam Nasional Bhd., from which it had planned to take over licenses as it expands operations, South Sudan’s National Economic Conference said in a summary of recommendations. Officials met for six days through Sept. 9 in the capital city of Juba.

The NEC also listed the renegotiation of exploration and production sharing agreements in 2027, as well as recommending the construction of an alternative pipeline. South Sudan has held talks with Kenya and Ethiopia to truck oil to the coast for export, which would mitigate its dependence on pipelines that run through war-plagued Sudan.

Longshorttrade - To be fair the initial timeframe was 30th June 2023, so in theory if they release it end of September they would have had a full additional 3 months extension. One would hope that 3 months is a significant amount of time to close out any other workstreams which they couldn't during the initial timeline of 30th June 2023. I am personally taming my expectations for a couple of additional months of extensions but If it comes sooner than it's a bonus for all.

A great example of risk mitigation is we know the clauses on the Exxon debt facility was amended post chad nationalization something that wasn't explicitly stated but was part of the annual report. So we know Savannah are pretty good at taking measures to protect inherent risks.

Hence I think many who have spoke to IR and Nominated advisor have mention that AK is looking to come to market only when there is some assurity so if the company does release the admission document and re-admits without formal approval i would be certain that background assurances would be granted which we may not be privy to until formal approval news lands

So I am confident that when Save do release the admission document even if it doesn't have all formals approvals in place there would be measures taken in the background which we may not be immediately privy to especially after lessons learnt from Chad deal to ensure that the risk is minimal as possible post release of admission document and re-listing. ...

NicetoMichu - I believe everyone on here would prefer to be suspended and wouldn't mind a few additional months suspension if that were the case. We have waited this long what's a few additional months. Everyone is assuming that this deal is solely dependent on South Sudan Goverment approval but the list of approvals is far greater for this deal and Savannah has not explicitly stated the wait is because of the government approval it is something that investors are inherently jumping too..... they have always referred to workstreams which is a lot more broader.

UK Approvals

1) UK Government

2) UK Listing Authority

3) FCA

4) Competition and Markets Authority

5) Savannah Shareholders

South Sudan Approval

1) South Sudan government approval

2) South Sudanese National Petroleum Commission

3) Nilepet approval

4) Minister of petroleum approval

5) Minister of finance approval

Potential US government approval ?

1) We may need US government approval as South Sudan my be subject to international sanctions

Approvals from other partners like CNPC and ONGC the PSC

The list could be exhaustive and who knows whether we need all of the above or some and some may come together.

So you can imagine with so many approvals and stakeholders to please timelines can always and likely shift.

Of course Savannah Energy may need all of the approvals to feel comfortable to come to market but I would imagine they would have got legal advice on what is utmost importance which will make the deal as watertight as possible and one which can not be back tracked on once we commence trading.

Regarding SP, the chairman's decision to subscribe at the suspended price of 26.25p is a compelling endorsement of the company's current valuation. This not only solidifies the market's optimism about our future plans but also lends extra credibility, especially considering the chairman's unique insight into the company's prospective growth.

Our strategy of increasing cash reserves and lowering net debt puts us in a robust financial position as we work towards finalizing another acquisition. Even if additional deals don't materialize, our focus will remain on strengthening our financials by continuing to reduce net debt and accumulate cash.

Regarding SP, the chairman's decision to subscribe at the suspended price of 26.25p is a compelling endorsement of the company's current valuation. This not only solidifies the market's optimism about our future plans but also lends extra credibility, especially considering the chairman's unique insight into the company's prospective growth.

Accugas increasing cash reserves and lowering net debt puts us in a robust financial position as we work towards finalizing another acquisition. Even if additional deals don't materialize, our focus will remain on strengthening accugas asset through additional gas contracts which in turn will strengthen financials by continuing to reduce net debt and accumulate cash that alone will provide upside headway to the company

Whatever happens with deals, we have plenty to go fro in terms of accugas growth new contracts and higher volumes. always have said we if we can be strong and aggressive in executing on the accugas front than that alone could take us to being a £1bn market cap company in it's own right....................

Half year report to come end of September will be very interesting in my opinion and will provided further outlook as well

So with every deal that Savannah does in the future it will also be about testing the investors patience.....................If you play the long game than I truly believe everything will be fine.................................

It's all about looking with a longer lens accugas asset has proven that, there was so much issues from the point we struck the deal to getting the asset to where it is today at one point there was even worries of being paid on time................ a few years on and the asset is effectively placed us in our current position where we are able to access financing to go for other inorganic deals and potentially transforming the company into the next level.................... Nothing is easy but the persistence and determination showed by AK in getting the accugas asset to where it currently is nothing short of commendable and one thing the accugas asset has shown is AK drive to make a deal a success regardless of the timelines.

Every upstream deal in africa has it's own sets of challenges, and there aren't any easy deals, it's about being persistent, patient and playing the long game......... The challenges can come in a number of forms, employee unrest, political unrest, environmental concerns, approvals inertia............................... etc......................................

ENI / OANDO deal worker protests

https://www.majorwavesenergyreport.com/pengassan-pickets-agip/

My view is that in a lot of these deals a preliminary binding approval can be granted subject to so other customary completions perhaps AK is looking for something similar before coming to the market. There isn’t a set structure as to when approval can be granted.

Thanks Rocky much appreciated, if we don't hear from you hope you have a great holiday........

Rocky - are you able to elaborate slightly more on “ I do think we will see new custmer/s and contract extensions and or contracts increased by volumes ”.

I have always wanted a bit more aggression from the company in growing the accugas asset considering the pipeline capacity we have. Just wondered whether you got strong inclinations around the timing of these and perhaps how close this might be towards execution.

I was always of the opinion that we should and can be quicker on optimising and maximising the gas around our accugas pipeline and increasing volumes……. And wanted or am looking for more amocon style contracts

Rockyride - thanks in advance for always going out of your way to update us on your conversations with IR it’s much appreciated.

I think perhaps an acknowledgment of whether the admission document is on track for the end of the month would be nice see if you are able to draw that out, obviously they might give you and explicit answer but perhaps you would be able to gauge from the tone of your conversation

Also looking at the deal in tandem with strong brent price at present it seems like a steal for Oando

Looks like Eni has sold it's onshore assets to Oando. Looks like a solid and really cheap deal for Oando. Reported sell price over $500m and production circa 24,000 bopd net plus 400-500 million barrel of reserves.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/529408/eni-sells-down-nigerian-onshore-to-local-player/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/eni-sell-nigerian-oil-gas-unit-naoc-oando-2023-09-04/

I reckon if we go for Nigeria assets they will be far cheaper comparatively than other countries.......................................................

Morning All

Now that we are effectively in September 4 weeks away from the said potential admission document date of 30th September 2023, I wonder what the groups thoughts and feelings are in terms of the likely scenario from the list below:

1) An update on Admission Document prior to Friday 29th September

2) Admission Document by Friday 29th September & re-listing same day (Including ss government approval)

3) Admission Document by Friday 29th September & re-listing same day (without ss government approval)

4) Admission Document by Friday 29th September & re-listing following week i.e. 2nd October at the very latest (Including ss government approval)

5) Admission Document by Friday 29th September & re-listing following week i.e. 2nd October at the very latest (without ss government approval)

6) An update by Friday 29th September or 2nd October asking for a short extension for a couple of weeks max. i.e 2 weeks

7) An update by Friday 29th September or 2nd October asking for a whole month extension i.e 31st October 2023.

8) An update by Friday 29th September or 2nd October asking for 2 months extension i.e 30th November 2023.

9) An update by Friday 29th September or 2nd October asking for 3 months extension i.e 31st December 2023.

10) An update by Friday 29th September or 2nd October asking for 6 months extension i.e 31st March 2024.

I welcome everyone's thoughts as opinion as to where they think the current state of play is at ?

My personal preference is if we haven’t received government approval for the deal than to perhaps extend a couple of months to obtain it and come back with market but also come back with another significant deal wrapped up simultaneously……………. As AK did say another significant deal this year so perhaps they could defer the admission document a little bit more and deliver 2 deals at once plus hopefully the additional extension will allow it to get the SS approval over the line as well.

Also if we don’t get SS government approval by 30th November 2023 than I believe realistically we will have to wait till 31st March 2024. I always tend to discount December and January as slow months to get any government to action approvals as holiday period tends to lead to inaction.

Rockyride - that would be much appreciated I do try myself but i never seem to get a response seems like they are probably use to a few handful of individuals and happy to answer to them.................

Thanks Rockyride, I am hoping for a detailed, informative and tasty update from you. I must say I am a tad surprised that considering the size of our business they have not updated on other fronts like accugas gas contracts, debt financing, gas compression project, renewables etc etc............................ I believe Sayj mentioned in his update from IR the next update is likely to be news in relation to admission document, but considering the admission document date is end of September, probably safe to assume that we are likely to see the half year report before the admission document.