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On Exxon Debt Facility of $170m, it seems that the payment was tied to Doba crude oil liftings and distributions made from Cotco it say's the facility has since been amended to reflect Doba nationalisation so that is a huge positive

In December 2022, Savannah Energy Finance Limited entered into a term loan facility of $170.0 million to fund the acquisition of the Chad and Cameroon Assets. The loan carries an annual interest rate of 7% plus three months’ SOFR. Repayments are made from cash generated from future oil liftings within the upstream business in Chad, as well as distributions made from COTCo. The facility was guaranteed by the Company up to US$34 million; this guarantee has been treated as an insurance contract under IFRS 4. Following the Nationalisation, the terms of this facility were amended in 2023.

Zengas - Sure is a very tasty deal if they can cross the finish line...................................................................

South Sudan Press picking up the Puot Kang Chol sky news story - https://www.eyeradio.org/kang-oil-is-south-sudans-only-steppingstone-to-renewable-energy/

Rockyride - let's hope we all get news that we deserve as soon as possible with government sign off as well. Taking economic effective date into account I would be very surprised if the closing price is not at the very least sub $700m, obviously it could be even lower. I am hoping that 19 months or so of economic effective date if still 01.01.2022 as reported by a few on here previously will enable us to avoid an equity raise. Hopefully a few additional months than the original anticipated closing date would have negated the chad doba oil field revenues that may have been factored into the deal.

Robberyrob - Apologies I am not trying to mislead in any shape or form I was just seeing what the extreme scenario would look like if they did a raise so i did numbers to the extreme up to 2 billion shares in issue, I am not saying that will happen and fully agree that the company did say no use of equity is likely................

However with that being said a modest equity raise can also not be ruled out as well they raised $65 million dollars for the last deal at suspended price of 19.35p so wouldn't be surprised if they raised a little through the use of equity this time round too. The comment around them mentioning that they will use cash at hand and debt was on the SPA announcement on 12th December, but at that point they probably thought they would have had access to our 8,000 bopd net share of doba revenues................

Also they might get the fundraise out the way alongside this deal so they don't need to use equity for the following deal, if the following deal is also close to being wrapped up this year as Andrew suggested delivering another significant m&a opportunity this year.

Part 2

Market Cap at suspension @ £343 million assuming we complete south sudan acquisition at lets just say we use a very conservative increase in market cap of £700m on open and re-listing, so effectively an increase in market cap by £350 million.

Based on the above equity raise potential price targets on open

1.3 bn shares + 100 m = 1.4bn - £700m / 1400 = 0.500p open price - 50p

1.3 bn shares + 200 m = 1.5bn - £700m / 1500 = 0.466p open price – 46.6p

1.3 bn shares + 300 m = 1.6bn - £700m / 1600 = 0.437p open price – 43.7p

1.3 bn shares + 400 m = 1.7bn - £700m / 1700 = 0.411p open price – 41.1p

1.3 bn shares + 500 m = 1.8bn - £700m / 1800 = 0.388p open price – 38.8p

1.3 bn shares + 600 m = 1.9bn - £700m / 1900 = 0.368p open price – 36.8p

1.3 bn shares + 700 m = 2.0bn - £700m / 2000 = 0.35p open price – 35p

Please note the above does not take into account the complexities of the deal and the debt funding structure, this is purely based on issue of equity vs potential market cap gain if the transaction closes. Just simple equity vs share comparison. Obviously, it goes without saying the lower the equity dilution and the higher the market price will mean higher the share price on open and admission.

Current Shares in issue circa 1.3 billion worked up to 2.0 billion below:

Equity Raise Scenario’s if we complete Petronas South Sudan acquisition at suspension price of @26.25p:

100 Million @ 26.25p = £26,250,000 (USD - $33,800,000)

200 Million @ 26.25p = £52,500,000 (USD - $67,600,000)

300 Million @ 26.25p = £78,750,000 (USD - $101,000,000)

400 Million @ 26.25p = £105,000,000 (USD - $135,000,000)

500 Million @ 26.25p = £131,250,000 (USD - $169,000,000)

600 Million @ 26.25p = £157,500,000 (USD - $202,000,000)

700 Million @ 26.25p = £183,750,000 (USD - $236,000,000)

Market Cap at suspension @ £343 million assuming we complete south sudan acquisition at lets just say we use a very conservative increase in market cap of £500m on open and re-listing, so effectively an increase in market cap by £150 million.

Based on the above equity raise potential price targets on open

1.3 bn shares + 100 m = 1.4bn - £500m / 1400 = 0.357p open price - 35.7p

1.3 bn shares + 200 m = 1.5bn - £500m / 1500 = 0.333p open price – 33.3p

1.3 bn shares + 300 m = 1.6bn - £500m / 1600 = 0.312p open price – 31.2p

1.3 bn shares + 400 m = 1.7bn - £500m / 1700 = 0.294p open price – 29.4p

1.3 bn shares + 500 m = 1.8bn - £500m / 1800 = 0.277p open price – 27.7p

1.3 bn shares + 600 m = 1.9bn - £500m / 1900 = 0.263p open price – 26.3p

1.3 bn shares + 700 m = 2.0bn - £500m / 2000 = 0.250p open price – 25p

Market Cap at suspension @ £343 million assuming we complete south sudan acquisition at lets just say we use a very conservative increase in market cap of £600m on open and re-listing, so effectively an increase in market cap by £250 million.

Based on the above equity raise potential price targets on open

1.3 bn shares + 100 m = 1.4bn - £600m / 1400 = 0.428p open price - 42.8p

1.3 bn shares + 200 m = 1.5bn - £600m / 1500 = 0.400p open price – 40p

1.3 bn shares + 300 m = 1.6bn - £600m / 1600 = 0.375p open price – 37.5p

1.3 bn shares + 400 m = 1.7bn - £600m / 1700 = 0.352p open price – 35.2p

1.3 bn shares + 500 m = 1.8bn - £600m / 1800 = 0.333p open price – 33.3p

1.3 bn shares + 600 m = 1.9bn - £600m / 1900 = 0.315p open price – 31.5p

1.3 bn shares + 700 m = 2.0bn - £600m / 2000 = 0.30p open price – 30p

Zengas - when talking about valuations the other day and closing the gap on peers the easiest way to do this would be to listed on the main market alongside the completion of Petronas South Sudan acquisition that will help the enlarged company be valued more appropriately and would save the need to be listed in another exchange for the time being.

On a separate note even if we don#t receive the admission document this week we should definitely see a Q2 operational update as that has been long overdue at the very least.

He sure does sound like a pragmatic man the bit where he says that we are not opposed to transition, but should be "Just, equitable and inclusive". Also they are not opposed to renewable but need to increase revenue from oil, to transition into other sectors like agriculture and renewable.

I am sure we will also announce a few renewable deals in South Sudan as well like we have done in NIger, Chad, and Cameroon.

One would assume that a joint comms plan is probably in place and finalised last week which will be worked through in the next few days and weeks. South Sudan clearly marketing its self for investment they have oil 14 blocks on offer and what Better way to attract other investors than to approve our deal to say South Sudan is officially open to business

Approval of our deal is a wider plan by the South Sudan government to attract many other partners.

Surely all of this is not a coincidence comms starting to step up over the weekend with the sky news interview talking about the South Sudan need for investment in the oil and gas sector, receiving an award this week in London for foreign direct investment.

https://youtu.be/QnB7fB9uTbc

Pout Kang Chol tweets 30 mins ago - https://twitter.com/puot_kang/status/1682776697500758016?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw

Are the ducks starting to line up for a big week next week surely has to be it now…………………..

South Sudan Embassy in London tweet - “completion of their missions in London” - sounds very cryptic let’s hope the mission include us………………….. …

Happy to host Hon Minister Puot Chol @mop_ssd; Hon Minister Awut Acuil MP @MinistrySsd & Hon Eng Awow Chuang, Technical Advisor @mop_ssd for courtesy visits upon completion of their missions.

The Hon Ministers applauded the Embassy for work conducted & professionalism displays

https://twitter.com/southsudan_uk/status/1682505779172065281?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw

I was just looking at the annual report this afternoon in detail. I couldn’t help but notice and didn’t know that they stated that they considering hydrocarbon acquisitions in Cameroon alongside further renewables so could that be a follow on deal which we could wrap up quickly

Page 68 annual report

Quote from Antonine Richard Chief Operating Officer Savannah

“We are actively working on further hydrocarbon and renewable energy asset opportunities in country”.

It was a sneaky way to put it in not many people ready the admission document word for word but I thought I would find time to see if something interesting popped up.

Suggest we could see a hydrocarbon deal in Cameroon quite quickly if they felt comfortable to quote as such also could come part of the admission document or quite quickly following.

Zengas - I couldn’t agree more, I believe Kosmos valuation is higher due to the fact that they are listed in the US too which probably gives it a premium……………… but saying that our organic growth capacity from accugas, Niger, and South Sudan hopefully post closing could give us the potential to close that gap between us and kosmos. Even without another acquisition after this and renewables aside.

On the renewables front I would prefer to keep it under one umbrella for now as is one of the many reasons that we are able to access capital for oil and gas acquisitions for now as finders look at the companies ESG profile. I would also like to get to first power on some renewable projects first or at least begin commissioning the development before a spin out is considered as they say stronger together for now……….

I suppose probably one of the many reasons why AK wants to stay on Aim, there is a lot more freedom to do this sort of things........

I am going to be a devils advocate and say we will get an update next week to say they have extended by another month to 31st August 2023

Morning All,

For the more knowledgeable posters on here, can you answer a question I have, if we were to be re-admitted is there a set amount of time that we have to be trading for before we can or are allowed to grant another suspension.

I know silly question but i would have thought there must be some rules around back to back suspensions ?

Can't think further than this acquisition for now to be fair even though we know the company is on the hunt for lots more but they truly need to get this one over the line first

Rockyride - It would be nice to have 24 hours to actually study the document.......... personally not a huge fan of releasing the admission document and re-listing on the same day.....

On a separate I am guessing you haven't spoken to anyone from IR this week have you to assess the state of play.......... I was expecting at least a Q2 update similar to how they released a Q1 2023 update but i am guessing they probably holding of as it might tie in with admission document..................................... also if they released it they would be bound to give an status update on south sudan acquistion where they are not yet ready to provide on