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It wouldn't be surprising if continue to expand our gas production through another gas acquisition in Nigeria as supposed to oil or perhaps both.

Now that we approach September it would be great to see if any of the posters are reaching out to IR to see if we are on for the said September deadline...............

Tinubu chooses multiple companies to end gas flaring

Often singled out for the amount of gas it flares, Nigeria is taking another big step forwards in the process it began eight years ago to put an end to this practice. In early August, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved a list of 44 firms under the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) to carry this out.

Launched in 2016 and then repeatedly pushed back until 2022, mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic, that programme involves selling the gas that was previously flared, to third-party private companies. During this first phase, the results of which were initially due to be published in December 2022, 49 licences were granted.

Those companies, most of them Nigerian, were selected from among 139 bidders by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, headed by Gbenga Komolafe. They will replace the private oil companies whose size does not allow them to use the gas released during extraction. Oil companies, both public and private, that are able to put an end to gas flaring on their own extraction sites have been exempted from submitting their batches, on condition that they undertake to stop this practice.

The NGFCP aims to meet Nigeria's target of eliminating gas flaring by 2035 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. In 2022, the country ranked ninth for the volume of gas flared, with 5,300m3, according to World Bank data.

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2023/08/30/tinubu-chooses-multiple-companies-to-end-gas-flaring,110037315-bre

I strongly believe we will be one of the said companies and beneficiaries of this programme...............

Zengas - Agreed coups rarely affect operators who are already operating assets in said territories in the instances you mentioned below correct it does not affect production levels for those companies and they continue to operate as normal. I purely referenced assala energy as reference because if we were acquiring it than it can get stuck in government inertia, however if the asset was signed and approved by the country and operatorship was assumed than it makes no difference.................

Coups will only impact acquisitions if it falls within the acquisition window as it could delay things such as approvals and consents but have no bearing whatsoever once operatorship is assumed.

Hence I have always preferred doing deals in Nigeria as seems to be the most stable african country and the chance of a coup in Nigeria is on the very low end of the spectrum.......................

I sincerely hope our next deal is in Nigeria........

Glad we didn't go for assala energy assets would have been a nightmare trying to get approvals..........

Potential trucking of oil and discussions on pipelines through other East African countries. Would be welcome news and ensure security of export and Great news for savannah if they can successfully close the transaction

https://sudantribune.com/article276606/

Additionally I wouldn't be surprised if Savannah announced another deal which is signed, sealed and delivered potentially in Nigeria with south sudan deal pending approval as that will enable them to come to the market whilst the ss deal works itself through and takes it's natural course..................

Zengas - I am all for dividend however, I believe we should pursue dividend only after we have added 100,000 bopd of production through acquisitions. Personally I would like to get to 150,000 bopd before dividend payout. We are currently at 30,000 bopd with accugas if we close ss successfully and if it is still producing circa 50,000 bopd that will take us to roughly 80,000 bopd. Then close another acquisition in the region of 50,000 - 70,000 bopd in Nigeria and we will be comfortably be in the region of 150,000 bopd with net debt range of $2bn - $2.5bn.

Understand the jitters as AK still needs to deliver a successful oil acquisition and we have been at it for nearly 3 years with Chad being caught up in issues. So really the closure of SS or another significant deal of similar size with government approvals will be the key.

It's funny if AK manages to land a significant deal with government approval than i fully believe shareholders will be happy to and almost begging him to go for another big one instead of dividends as they will buy into his acquisition strategy and they will start thinking he can actually deliver deals of size to full closure. The question around dividend at the moment purely stems from this at the moment.

Hence I have always said AK would be smart to ask for further extensions to complete a deal instead of coming back to the market without a deal whether that is the south sudan deal another deal of similar size or 2 deals at once. The key remains to come to the market with a deal................

Which is one of the many reason why i feel further extensions are being granted as I feel Savannah is probably already laid majority of the ground work on another deal incase SS fails to complete this is not to say they are not looking to complete SS as well which I fully believe they are but I reckon the intention is to close a significant deal this year fully and if they close more than one than that's a dreamy scenario.

Although I would be very surprised if they returned to market without a single deal even if it’s a smaller one.

Likely scenario would be to continue to ask for an extension and complete a deal at the same time as announcing a termination of ss deal so the impact is netted off.

Snaffleman don’t think we will see a massive discount personally as we would have had nearly 10 months of additional revenues and reduce net debt plus I believe the equity placing for the chairman set a baseline price at the suspended price of 26p which we issued shares at so don’t see a discount. I would have expected a discount on the SP if we were priced at previous highs of 40p but frankly at 26p I believe it represents the current fair value of accugas and strong operational performance which should have continued including the additional gas contract of 20mmscfd. Don’t believe our suspended share price at 26p accounted for Niger or chad anyway.

Also the brokers generally tend to have a sense of upcoming operational news. So if they feel that even with South Sudan not closing another deal is imminent then they may not take the price down on re-list.

I feel confident that we should land a significant acquisition in Nigeria shortly…………………….

Thanks Zengas your insights are always through and well thought off and highly appreciated. I personally feel that based on the below fair value would be around $850m and the other $400m based on contingent payments on oil price and export stability

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/525163/maurel-buys-assala-in-step-change-for-gabon-plans/

Assala energy sold for $730m

https://www.rigzone.com/news/carlyle_to_sell_assala_energy_in_gabon_to_mp_for_730mm-16-aug-2023-173678-article/

For anyone interested in looking into Energy outlook I highly recommended watching this it's 1 hour long but so informative and driven by factual information by Dr Anas Alhajji who is mostly brilliant in articulating and talking about all things energy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD31cxbQcRQ

Thanks MR B for posting source

RockyRide - If you are referring to budget approval than it was approved late on friday evening.............................

Also Savannah probably need to demonstrate that they have a corporate infrastructure in place to take on sizeable oil and gas projects prior to approvals as well.................................

They need to prove that as a company they are ready to integrate any asset of any size into the existing business......

Rocky - We can sustain it without new acquisitions in all depends on how aggressive they are in signing up new gas agreements as I said the Amocon 20 mmSCFD works out to be roughly 3,000 boepd if they can add a few more of these and produce arounf 40,000 - 50,000 boepd from accugas any other acquistion in addtion will just be a a bonus..................

I am sure there must must be so degree of confidence in acquiring oil and gas assets whether it's south sudan or not perhaps other Nigeria oil and gas assets may be an easier route to go down also perhaps oil and gas assets in cameroon considering our chairman knows the cameroon market so could probably flex his muscle quite quickly there...............