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Zengas - Well articulated and yes completing Petronas South Sudan acquisition is the priority for now and the companies ultimate focus, One would hope that they have made good progress in this regard and hopefully the said Q3 timeline is still the intended target. I would like to add that the main focus for me is getting South Sudan over the line and getting new accugas contracts. .......

Savannah have just hired a Financial and Corporate Modelling Manager from KPMG, surely with the continued hiring there must be some confidence in the future of company and it's growth plans. I think someone mentioned before the amount of hiring they have done and are doing can not be just serviced from Accugas alone.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7089942152306155521/

Whether it's a constitutional government or a military government they will both want oil revenues so coup or not coup makes no difference Sudan before the split was pretty much a military rule with civil war and yet over those years, CNPC, Petronas, ONGC all managed to operate. Considering the Niger Benin pipeline cost exceeding over $5bn. One would imagine they would protect their interest

Let's not overreact here the company are working hard to get this over the line sometimes things naturally take it's course. We should expect an update soon as they mentioned a firm date in the results they will at the very least have to rns an update to that date. Yes they mentioned 'Q3' but that specifically referred to closing and not the admission document.

I wonder if they are using the maximum window which is probably until close of play tomorrow (I.e Friday 28th July 2023 4.30pm) to see if they get any form of approval before rns an update............... perhaps they even may wait till early next week if there is any progress through the weekend in regards to the approval before providing an update to the market

I feel like the company want to make sure that the next update they give is really it and meaningful and as alluded to before they might not want to keep rns the extension every other day as that would look a little silly. So I would image at some point we would probably have to give an ultimatum to the SS government and give them a final date to approve the deal or we walk away but again I would imagine we wouldn't want to do that lightly considering all the time and effort we have spent on the deal.......

Also one of the reason why I think they may have held back the Q2 operations update is to probably use that as a way to rns the extension news but at this stage it's anyone's guess. I must say I will be positively shocked and wouldn't complain if it did come this week but there is nothing to suggest that this is the case, and normally a deal of this size i would expect the number of people involved across the deal from Petronas, savannah, advisors, governments, there hasn't been a peep squeak of noise, either they are damn bloody good and keeping the real status sealed and secret or safe to suggest there hasn't been any movement to report..............................................

Tier - Haha................I am hardly inside or never have been correct. I like you and everyone on here as am clueless and just try to guesstimate...........................

Tier - Personally not expecting any the admission document this week although for once I would love for savannah to exceed my expectations. I am going for a 2 week extension and say the new deadline maybe 11th August.............

Tier - News like this is a daily occurrence in most African countries so I tend to look beyond the headline. Besides we haven't yet started producing in Niger and the fact of the matter is CNPC are major investors and funders of pipeline so regardless of who is in power or not makes no difference as CNPC and China will call most of the shots. Most of the times pipeline and operations are left alone..................... until you hear otherwise. Don't think CNPC will pour billions in just to see the investment being blown up prior to any material return.......

To further put it into perspective seplat guidance for they year is 45,000 to 55,000 boepd and there market cap touched close to £800m the past few days. So if we can achieve similar production levels through new accugas contracts than that will allow us to reach parity with seplat on accugas business alone. Assuming we are now at 30,000 BOEPD and if we take a mid figure of 50,000 boepd for seplat that you could say 30,000 / 50,000 = 0.6 factor if you than apply that to the market cap of seplat market cap £800m * 0.6 = £480m. I believe if we weren't suspended and assuming the above comparison we would roughly have a market cap of £450m - £500m. We have historically tracked prices with seplat. If you than take £480m market cap / 1300 million shares = 0.37p or 37p

I am not sure about you guy's but I believe Andrew should be aggressive in adding more gas contracts this year our Amocon gas contract was 20 MMscfd which is equivalent to 3,545 BOEPD. If we play it right I fully believe we can add another 80 MMscfd which is equivalent to 14,179 BOEPD. A total increase of 100 MMSCFD from last year would be 17,724 BOEPD.

Our production as at Q1 2023 average was - "Q1 2023 average gross daily production on a like-for-like basis was 25.9 Kboepd" we have added Amocon which is 3,545 BOEPD. So our average production should be circa 30,000 BOEPD. If we add another 80 MMscfd this year that would be 14,179 BOEPD. We can and should be targetting to reach 40,000 - 50,000 BOEPD from accugas alone.

Hence why I hope Andrew is working just as hard to secure more gas contracts as he is with other deals, as the potential of the accugas business and pipeline network should fully be exploited to maximise it's use.

Zengas - I do concur and the best way for the market to truly value the renewables business would be to have a separate listed arm. I suppose there are a number of things the company can do to reach peer valuations to Kosmos and beyond:

1) Continue the acquisition spree if we end up successfully completing Petronas South Sudan deal, perhaps a another acquisition following that deal of similar size to SS would get us there with net debt circa $2bn and minimal equity dilution.

2) Could also seek to become main market listed in London which should help us build a broader range of investor base and visibility.

3) Seek a listing in NYSE and become dual listed.

4) Spin off the renewable business when appropriate to fully maximise company assets across hydrocarbons and renewables.

My personal dream is still to reach 150,000 to 200,000 bopd in the next 18 months, we can certainly reach the lower end of that range i.e 150,000 bopd by end of 2024 if the company is successfully able to land deals alongside organic growth of accugas asset and Niger development.

Longshorttrade - They are all singing positives and marketing for investments for south sudan, so my hope is that they back that up with action too, stone walling our deal will basically go against everything else that they are trying to achieve or saying what they want to achieve in all the press that we have seen, so the best way to attract investments would be to use our approval as the benchmark for other investors.

Couple of interesting interviews posted on YouTube Energy Capital & Power channel a few days ago talking about South Sudan oil and gas opportunities from Nilepet MD Bernard and NJ Ajuk.

Nilepet MD - https://youtu.be/b-vedmLz7Qk

NJ Ajuk - https://youtu.be/nFAfNtiq4PE

Rockyride - Sentiment wise there would not be a better time to return to market with oil price strengthening this is an ideal time if we can cross the final hurdles.

Tier - Wouldn't mind an extension albeit a preferred short one. If they are able to announce other operational updates like additional gas contracts, more definite work programme on Niger etc......... that would be great in the interim.

Can we or will we be allowed to announce other hydrocarbon acquisitions in the suspended period if the extension is longer or are we not allowed to from a legal standpoint, anyone in the group able to answer this question for definite or is able to find this information out ?

Morning Komakino - I have always thought that Q£ always referenced closing, i.e the full timeline including our shareholder approval which would typically be 3 to 4 weeks after admission document and than financial close and transition from Petronas following shareholder approval. Andrew quote "(1) the closing of our proposed acquisition of PETRONAS' assets in South Sudan in Q3; " refers to closing when referring to q3 and not admission document.

My hope is when they mentioned 28th July 2023 they would have factored in an additional 2 weeks already as a buffer. So if Strand Hanson do grant an extension they would need visibility of a firm date where the south sudan government are meeting to approve the deal or not, otherwise as this deal requires explicit consent it timelines could easily continue to stretch without a fixed date in which case Strand Hanson and Savannah will have to come to market even without formal approval, which a lot on here have said they will not come to market without formal approval.

Morning All

Now that we are 3 day's away from the said potential admission document date of 28th July 2023, I wonder what the groups thoughts and feelings are in terms of the likely scenario from the list below:

1) Admission Document by Friday 28th July & re-listing this week (Including ss government approval)

2) Admission Document by Friday 28th July & re-listing this week (without ss government approval)

3) Admission Document by Friday 28th July & re-listing early next week at the very latest (Including ss government approval)

4) Admission Document by Friday 28th July & re-listing early next week at the very latest (without ss government approval)

5) An update by Friday 28th July or early next week asking for a short extension for a couple of weeks max. i.e 2 weeks

6) An update by Friday 28th July or early next week asking for a whole month extension i.e 31st August 2023.

7)An update by Friday 28th July or early next week asking for 2 months extension i.e 30th September 2023.

I welcome everyone's thoughts as opinion as to where they think the current state of play is at ?

Longshorttrade - You would like to assume that how we concluded the Exxon deal will serve as a benchmark for all other deals similar and it gives the protection to the buyer and seller. The buyer get protection from unforeseen events the seller gets the benefit of full value of deal if everything is hunk dory............

Komakino - It's funny what you find when you actual read the full report carefully, we are all guilty of skim reading it when the answers are right in front of us at times. I will sure make it a habit of reading annual reports more thoroughly going forwards across all my other holdings.

Hoping that the remaining debt structure for South Sudan is similar non-recourse or capped at a certain level to reduce exposure on the group.