Member Info for TrustILie

Sorry I meant rocky not zengas

Zengas - not sure of price targets but anything less than a return price of 35p would be deemed a failure in my opinion regardless of what’s to come operationally. To be suspended for over 9 months and to not return to the market even at a modest premium would be a failure even if the premium is as modest as 30p. Luckily for Savannah they can achieve this simply through additional gas contracts if they can’t land a hydrocarbon deal………

Another legal hire from bracewell llp, let’s hope all these corporate hires will bear fruit and we are pursuing more hydrocarbon deals whatever happens with the South Sudan deals.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lauren-kelsall-a69b258b_im-happy-to-share-that-im-starting-a-new-activity-7093536815655079936-yCq2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

My take is the following:

1) It will be wrong to assume there isn’t an exit fee involved, I am 200% certain there would be just because there isn’t public information on it would be wrong to assume there isn’t. The South Sudan government are in budget deficit so they need the funds and will be looking to squeeze every dollar out of Petronas. Therefore it’s as much as Petronas job of convincing the South Sudanese government and pay up to leave quickly as it is savannah to convince them they are safe partners.

2) savannah will be the last of the 3 parties between Petronas and ss government to pull out. If they were the one to make the call than they might be liable for termination fee so they will continue to extend the deadline until Petronas make the decision so they don’t have to pay a break in deal fee.

3) even though it may be frustrating most on here would be ok with further extensions as it means the deal would be still alive, let’s hope that they are not needed and September 2023 is the final one but don’t be surprised if it gets pushed back further.

4) further extensions could be a good thing as it could allow us to wrap up another deal alongside South Sudan deal or if the South Sudan deal is failing than would allow us to wrap up another acquisition in this suspension window as I feel AK would need to use this window to bring a deal successfully to market otherwise he may not get future approvals for suspensions…………..

5) wrong to assume there isn’t complex regulatory sign off as far as I think, we would need sign off from South Sudan government, malayasian government and uk government and the relevant authorities in those countries. Like for the uk I would imagine approval from the clients and market authority and fca perhaps another uk government body to approve our investment under foreign direct investment.

6) negotiation 101 states that the South Sudanese government will drag this out as much as they can in order to get the best deal they can for them.

7) with the extensions been granted you would like to assume that there would be visibility over what the SS government demands are rand they must be achievable if all parties are still working to proceed on the deal, of course if the SS government continue to move goal posts than that might be the time to consider whether this deal becomes viable

Rocky - By 4 weeks you refer to below does that mean that we are likely to get an update by mid September at the very least? I would assume if we don't get an update by 15th September than the chances are we will also miss the 30th September date. By holiday month you refer to do you mean July or August ?

Rockyride - whether we get acquistions over the line remains to be seen however i have always said they need to be more aggressive. I would call 2023 a success if we can add another 100 mmscfd worth of gas contracts to our current production as that would take us to 40,000 - 50,000 boepd. I honestly think that should be as a priority as new acquistions and don't think it should be sidelined. If I was andrew I would be working towards maximising the pipeline.

Https://www.237online.com/la-transaction-petroliere-savannah-exxonmobil-un-tournant-decisif-dans-le-litige-tchad-cameroun/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=la-transaction-petroliere-savannah-exxonmobil-un-tournant-decisif-dans-le-litige-tchad-cameroun

In the heart of Africa, Cameroon and Chad play a vital role in the field of hydrocarbons. Savannah Energy, a British oil company specializing in Africa, recently found itself involved in a dispute with Cotco, a major player in the oil industry in the region. The case, which has garnered international attention, highlights the challenges of governance and investment in Africa.

The oil dispute explained

Savannah Energy has reached an agreement to acquire 41.06% of the shares of Cotco held by ExxonMobil, with a clear intention to improve oil activities in the region. This bold move led to legal and administrative disputes, notably with the Chadian government. The dispute came to a head during a hearing at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris.

The acquisition contract, concluded in December 2021, was of key importance for the region. With a total amount of more than 359 million USD, the transaction promised to breathe new life into local economies. Savannah Energy, proactive and transparent in its actions, followed all the necessary steps to ensure a smooth transition.

Savannah Energy's Position

Savannah Energy, in its quest to strengthen the African oil industry, has acted with integrity and professionalism. Despite the obstacles encountered, Savannah Energy maintained its position and worked closely with the governments of Cameroon and Chad.

By showing unwavering resilience and commitment to the region, Savannah Energy positions itself as a reliable and enduring partner. Their approach, focused on growth and development, is helping to build a more prosperous future for Africa.

The role of Cameroon

Cameroon, a key partner in this business, has a unique opportunity to show its commitment to growth and innovation. By supporting responsible and ethical investments like the one offered by Savannah Energy, Cameroon can usher in a new era of economic prosperity.

The dispute between Savannah Energy and Cotco is more than just a trade dispute. It is a symbol of change and evolution in Africa. By standing firm for its rights and acting ethically and transparently, Savannah Energy represents the future of the oil industry in Africa.

The world is watching, and Africa has a chance to shine. Savannah Energy's determination to pursue this project despite the obstacles demonstrates a commitment to development that deserves respect and admiration.

For more information on this case and other relevant news, visit 237online.com.

Thanks Rocky - A bit disappointed that they are not issuing an opps update seems odd to release Q1 and not continue to adhere to regular quarterly updates..........................................

Did you get any indication as to whether it may be earlier than that date as Sajy alluded to last week ? or do you get the feeling that it will go all the way and perhaps beyond that date, I know you can't answer that question with certainty but would be good to see if you picked up a vibe which could help you ascertain

Clearly the chad press are putting a different spin on the arbitration saying it's bad for Savannah bad they are clutching at straws there

Another article covering the ICC ruling

https://ecomatin.net/controle-de-cotco-savannah-remporte-larbitrage/

At this point I would even be willing to take operatorship of assets and formal approval from chad without any compensation if it came to it and if it meant that the decision was made in swiftly and quickly. That alone would be valuable to us.............................. Plus it will allow Chad a clean break without penalisation after they tried to pull one over us especially if it meant we could continue our renewable projects there.

Considering the aggressive nature in which Chad nationalised the assets one would hope that the ICC are also able to expediate the arbitration process and grant a final ruling to only question that would remain is how would the ICC be able to enforce a ruling on Chad as that would be tricky i am sure that they would have certain powers in place to be able to enforce a ruling one option may be that the ICC is able to do a force majeure on Doba oil field crude liftings from the kribi terminal to force chad arm into complying................................

Komakino - I believe it also alludes to Cotco previous general meetings being void as well and re-structure of Cotco will only be permitted following arbitration ruling........... or something along those lines.

Rockyride - Not worried about Niger for the minute and not material to our operations at the moment as we haven't really kicked of anything there and doesn't contribute to our bottom-line or SP for the time being. Hopefully should be resolved swiftly as ECOWAS have basically given a week to restore order or they will do a joint military intervention with the support of US and French.

As for all things South Sudan here are a few thoughts from me, and wonder what everyone else thinks:

1) They have given a new deadline of 30th September however IR made it seem like to Sajy it would come much earlier............ So I am slightly confused here seems like they are not sure themselves as to the timelines which makes me wonder they are not working on a definite timeframe and it's pretty loose..............

2) Is the south sudan government approval the only thing holding back the admission document or there are other workstreams. Workstreams is pretty vague word to me so could mean anything or everything.................

3) There will come a point where Savannah will have to make a decision if all the other workstreams are done and the south sudan government approval is the only thing pending than they will have 2 options, come back to the market without approval or simply terminate the deal due to lack of inaction from SS government.

4) At this stage we cannot rule out further extensions to end of Q4 or Q1 2024 both possible and the rns didn't make it sound like this was the final extension whatever may come.................................

5) I believe we should start to execute on other deals now and can no longer wait on SS loose deal timelines, my preference would be be to either seal a big or a few small deals in Nigeria...........................

6) Surprised that now they have pushed back the re-admission document there isn't a Q2 update, with them mentioning that the next update was likely to be the admission document itself rather than the Q2 update seems odd if the admission document is 9-10 weeks away......................

There are plenty of gaps to fill here, of course we all would like to complete the South Sudan deal with approval as soon as possible but at the same time the company can not be granted extension upon extension and there will come a point where the nomad and institutions will have to force a decision on the company......................

Plus in my opinion I feel like AK is running out of suspension periods so he either has to land the south sudan deal or another deal of similar size in this window as I feel if he doesn't land a deal of this size in this window the nomad and institutional investors are very unlikely to grant future suspensions on long drawn out deals that do not close in the end.

Would love to here everyone's thoughts on this..........................................................................

PS Rocky - I will have to conserve my energy now and hibernate for a while so might be pos

I would like to say get a signed sealed and delivered deal before return. I wonder if they might now be concurrently working on another deal. Can you simultaneously bring to market as market as part of admission document ? ………………………………………….

In the meantime I would like to see some movement on accuracy debt restructure and also additional accuracy contracts between now and admission document and any other news that the company would deem for to release.

Now that they have extended the timeframe out to end of September I hope that my seem appropriate to provide us with an operations update for Q2 2023.

I must say it's another lazy rns from IR 30th September 2023 is Saturday so "on or before" is not correct "before" is correct but not "on" should have really said on or before 29th September 2023

Sayj - I hope as you said this morning that they believe it will be much sooner than end of September otherwise no news for another 2 months................................ Surely they can release an Ops update at the very least now...........................................

As expected admission document rns released this time round they have gone for end of September to fully manage expectation. Let's hope this doesn't stop them from providing additional operational updates would like to see some gas contracts announced between now and than.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SAVE/south-sudan-acquisition-update/16059651

Cheers Sajy amazing mate thanks for the update, yh sounds like a couple of weeks by the sounds of the wording rather than a full whole month.............................. I did here that Petronas had an official exit date of 31st August 2023 in mind so in order to get GM approval from our shareholders intime for this you would have thought that they would have to release the admission document by Friday 11th August allowing 2 to 2.5 weeks to squeeze GM approval by Wednesday 30th August.

Thanks for confirming Sajy much appreciated, do you know if we will receive a Q2 update in the interim ? My guess is the admission document will probably be ready but they just would prefer to return to market with approval so will allow a few more weeks.........