Member Info for triumph1

Porks, you cant keep comparing ASOS to novacyt. Asos revenues continue to grow rapidly year on year and have done for several years. Novacyt revenues will drop back significantly for the next few years based on broker reports.

Obviously this doesnt take into consideration new contract wins, but the comparison is silly at present. I'll allow you to reserve the right to throw egg on my face if NCYT can ever maintain a growth rate YoY similar to that of Asos or boohoo.

If someone found a pound on the floor, you cant expect anyone to value it at £10 if the person who found the pound has no track record of turning it into £10. That takes time porky, and this company is effectively 1 year old.

At the not so dignified decay of SP since news release. All due to the simple fact that value simply is not in vogue at the moment....promise of jam tomorrow is all the rage now. Then you got the fad of buy on speculation, sell on news causing great companies to tank on great releases.

Wouldnt take much notice of broker SP estimates as they are never realised on the AIM market, but this is now becoming a value play where even the most critical (me) cannot dispute the lack of value being attributed to this company.

Look on the bright side; I might even become a shareholder if the SP drops much lower ;)

The PFS delay has certainly forced BHP/NCM to show their hand faster. The lower the SP goes, the stronger the smell gets. Whether the aim was to allow another player to undercut BHP/NCM (could be Chinese) or to force/stimulate a bidding war/JV remains to be seen, but its clear at this point that any seriously interested party must now act swift or risk losing the lot.

Or is NM just a dancing kite in a storm without a clue? IMO what NM is or is not is irrelevant now.

Bad news JoeKenny? Pubs cant sell alcohol? Don't be silly, that means another 10% rally on Monday surely?

Boy was i wrong...but the most frustrating thing is i still dont understand why i got this so wrong. Clearly someone with deep pockets think MAB will come out of this completely unscathed. Perhaps MAB has some form of revenue coming in us mere mortals dont know about? Money trees sprouting in the beer gardens perhaps? They can turn water into the 1982 chateau mouton rothschild perhaps? Each theory as likely as the next.

Arguable one of the most knowledgeable CEO in this sector, JDW's Tim Martin must be just as puzzled as i am considering he has already lost £7m on his £50m share sale a couple of weeks back.

Obviously someone is very very interested in buying up pub stocks. Foolish or genius, that remains to be seen. With demand for the stock this high, the upcoming placing may not be as low as some expect....

Straight back up to pre report highs. Well done for all you diamond hands out there

Indeed. News like this will sure weed out the traders in for the swings. NM dont care about swing traders. He wants support of long termers who are willing to slog it out to the end by the sounds of that RNS.

Lol to the fool wh thinks this was ever getting to production in 12 months.

Cornerstone must be fuming haha. NM prizing them off by torching them like you would a leech.

All these new works could probably be overturned by the incoming CEO? But yeah, the way the SP dropped I thought the PFS were out and the holes were dusters haha

I'm in thankyou very much!

A little harsh SeaE, i would put the bedrock here at 700p if 800p goes due to this years revenue forecast and cash. However the next leg up will involve moving away from covid products. Even the most ardent novacytian would agree on that point (looking at you porkies).

Everyone knows that the company are hardly vocal about any new contract wins. Phase 1 extension will most likely happen which should add another £100m, but its hard to see where any other significant contract wins will come from that the company will actually report on and i wouldn't count on phase 2 happening. Perhaps the US? All pure speculation of course. One thing we all know well...what happens to a company; an AIM company in particular that goes through a dry spell in terms of news. Not suggesting they are, but you do get the feeling momentum will wind down in the coming months. Where is the next gear coming from. We are yet to see a clear path and i never liked the game of "dot to dot" as it is too open to interpretation.

Perhaps if the company were not so sub-rosa VanV, it could put these issues to bed. As it stands, i dont see how anyone can call these points unreasonable. The worst bit about the earnings RNS for me was the phrase "most of 2021" when referring to expected covid-19 product demand. What do we all make of this? Most of means up to sept/oct 21. True, other companies were bullish on covid related product demand in their earnings reports than others, but what the company are saying is they have 10 months to effectively make enough hay to turn this company in to a "leading European molecular diagnostic player in infectious diseases"... Hmmmm. They better find that gear fast and get some non-covid products out there. A substantial contract or two wouldn't go a miss either.

Indeed. Then again oil has just broken out so surely Brent can at least test $60 in the coming days. As long as Q4 is not a Chernobyl style disaster tomorrow, no reason why shell can't stage a bit of a comeback. Looking at the results of other oil majors, they won't be pretty reading and market expects bad looking at the action this morning and the past few days. But any mild surprise and the RDS could stage a comeback.

With oil heading to $60, any dip is surely a great buying opportunity now. Would love to get these at £12 or below.

Between GSK and AZN. AZN are in a phase of double digit growth. GSK sales are shrinking and SP has done jack for 20 years!

Hmm AZN or GSK....difficult choice. NOT

HillSeeker it is impossible to know what the £277m comprised of as SH's weren't told. We need to wait until full year results in April to see that.

We simply do not know how much the NHS paid Nova in 2020. Assuming the company mentioned nothing about this, the vast majority must have been paid already. Then again, many here are right in saying that the RNS is as clear as mud as to what exactly is going on and who is buying what and in what quantity. Insane how the company are obfuscating this data. If a company does this, worst case is automatically assumed.

One thing we agree on porky. But look across the market and you will find that the more cash a company makes, the lower the relative value. Markets are in pure speculation mode at the moment; swarming with fast money that will bid up total rubbish on the hope they will get rich tomorrow. You get the feeling that it will all go horribly wrong and the tide will eventually turn, but it is what it is at the moment and the value of future cash, or should I say the promise of future cash is currently more valuable than cash in hand at the bank despite 95% of these promises never materializing.

Novacyt now make significant amounts of cash.....but no perceived outlook in terms of a next trigger to make the SP double. Please note i used the word perceive, meaning that in the eyes of fast money, novacyt has become a cash cow therefore in the short term, no money to be made.

Funny world we live in. Go figure....

Bluelight, i asked will there be a demand for an additional 700 machines on top of the 300 already out there (so we think) by the end of march when we are FORECAST to be over the worst of this dreadful virus?

Of course things could change and a mutation could reduce vaccine effectiveness, but you have to ask yourself how much more bad do things have to be in the present (and things are bad) for the government to buy another 700 of these machines? If you believe things will get 2x/3x worse than now, then maybe you think i am wrong. But i am hoping the worst will be behind us by the end of march, so i think it is objective to have the viewpoint that the government will "make do" with what they already have as opposed to buying more.

Thanks for input try2buylow. I thought just as much and come to the same conclusion re phase 1/2 boundary occurring at the earliest march 18th.

Based on this, I highly doubt phase 2 will be triggered/required. As you quite rightly suggest, where would the further 700 machines be placed? End of march coincides with the vast majority of the UK vulnerable already being vaccinated so will there be a demand for an additional 700 machines when the worst is forecast to be behind us by end of spring? Of course this could all change. If Nova manage to get the extension on phase 1, as per RNS that could add £100m to revenues.

This does not stop Nova selling abroad, but based on this i strongly suspect phase 2 is now highly improbable.

Porky you still dont get it. Its investors like you telling everyone that this will be £30, £50, £100 and revenue will be £500m that caused this crash. Dont you see the irony?

Quoting broker estimates is just massive confirmation bias. Everyone agrees with the brokers when views align, but brokers are ridiculed and called fraudsters when opinions diverge.

The RNS stated "the Company is in active discussions with the DHSC to extend this phase of the contract."

But we are still in phase 1. So when he said "this phase", does that mean phase 1 uptake was sluggish so nova are looking to extend phase 1 only? We know there were teething problems so full implementation was sluggish. To me, this sounds like phase 2 has not even been considered yet as they are still trying to extend phase 1?

There was always the risk of this happening. Having high expectation will always result in under delivery! Some silly numbers were thrown around the board over the last couple of months.

€311m was just above my estimates of £250m-£270m so i for one am quite amazed what the company done in 2020. Forward statement couldnt have been more vague, but coupled with 99.96% effiacy figures reported for pfizer jab in Israel after 700,000 have taken the jab there and novavax getting through phase 3 the reaction is hardly surprising.

Could there be one last hurrah from the phase 2 triggering? Mabye. To paint a clearer future for investors, the company will have to provide more dots for SH to join in terms of activity that results in sustainability and to cement the progress made I.e. M&A, development of new products away from covid. Only then can this company be given a forward valuation.

Until then, and like i have said all along this is still a one trick pony unfortunately and vague forward guidances like that wont do the company any favours in terms of SH support. Sure it's an amazing trick, but eventually people will get bored with the same trick and want to see what else the company can pull out of the hat.

Luddite, it's not about GME as a stock anymore. We all know that GME fundamentally is not worth a pot to p155 in but owning shares signifies a defiance to the hedge funds and banks that have screwed us over since the dawn of the financial system. It signifies that we have as much power as them if we band together and we wont tolerate the level of manipulation that goes on anymore. GME has become a cult of defiance to the current rigged system.

It's not about the money anymore; by buying shares you support our cause to bring down some of the most corrupt lowlifes that walk this planet. Think of it as a donation. Today is a mere glimpse as to how corrupt and rigged the system is against me and you. Why the SEC didnt step in to halt trading for everyone on the NYSE is baffling. Robinhood have royally fcuked themselves as there is a massive boycott with tens of thousands moving to PI friendly accounts.

New tactic is to smash the 5h1t out of of GME, AMC ect options after hours where volume is low and we are much more in control to force shorts margin calls.

A message to all shorts: we will hunt you down and you will burn. We are just getting started!

Contrarian*

Stocks that drop pre-results are the ones that tend to react far more positively to news than those that get ramped and reach record highs the day before release. I see the drop back from £12 as a good sign things are not getting overheated and shares could be far more sticky than expected, thus buy on speculation sell on news should be kept to a minimum allowing for a much greater percentage rise IF the results are good.

There would be a far more greater cause for concern regarding a big sell off on any news if shares were hovering around £13-£14 right now as trigger finger syndrome would be rife.