Member Info for triumph1

Porkster, the biggest SP movements come from unexpected positive events. Events that are known with relative certainty to happen; once reported usually have a detrimental or minimal impact on SP as there is no longer anything to look forward to in terms of news flow so the stock gets sold back.

I have a brain teaser for you...What catalyst did you mention in your last post that could qualify as an unexpected positive event that could materially raise the SP?
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A...None as you cannot write about unexpected events. Let's not beat around the bush. The only thing that will get this damp squid off the ground is A) big contract wins or B) clarification regarding DSHC contract; the very thing that made the SP drop in the first place. Play dot to dot all you like, but with GMs smoke machine it's hard to see the picture that's formed. Let's hope for your sake that all that smoke is being used to set the scene for a performance of a lifetime.

That drop was one of the biggest buy on the dip opportunity on the ftse100. Easy money

I like the part about "significant revenue". If GM says this, it must be true seeing as he doesnt exactly come across as a rampy CEO. Not surprised to see this up, despite the fact nothing is really new. Much more upbeat though.

Next catalyst is to sort this mess with DSHC out

He must have been my posts. At least there is a timeline now in place where this company can draw a line under this contract and move on.

A much needed piece of clarity

NCYT is super cheap, that is indisputable based on cash, ebidta even after we take DSHC out of the equation, leaving very little enterprise value.

Even a timeline of when this may come to an end would help. Anything other than silence would help. There is nothing good about letting SH guess an outcome of an event like this; a decay of SP is inevitable.

This will probably bounce back soon as the uncertainty clears up, but who knows how cheap this can get before this is cleared up. 300p is not a crazy suggestion the way things are going.

Until GM quashes the uncertainty unfortunately. That or another contract win.

Indeed. Although how tempting the SP is, the level of uncertainty is absolutely insane regarding this contract disagreement. We dont even know the nature of the disagreement. I can see no other reason to withhold this information other than it being too embarrassing to share and being very bad news. It's hard to fathom how a CEO can leave its shareholders hanging like this. Does he think the SH are idiots?

Absolutely no reason to buy whatsoever until much needed clarification is had and a figure is put on the worst case scenario. If not the SP will simply drift to the worst case scenario which is a total wipeout of Q4 DSHC revenues.

GM beginning to show signs of fatigue and being out of his depth. You have to remember he is not used to seeing contracts with so many naughts so is also learning on the job. Lack of experience in effective SH communications is really showing now.

This is textbook confirmation bias WBAFC. You have missed out many points that give more than hints as to the NHS attitude towards PCR tests, I.e. q1 sales made will cover NHS quota for the rest of the year. Still clinging onto a contract extension is futile; it simply will not happen. The best outcome re this contract is an amicable solution, draw a line and move on. The SP will partially correct itself once this happens.

In order to get anywhere near £10 again, a contract of equal size must take its place. USA or another EU country is possible, but all silent on that front so who knows? Barring that, a plan that provides a viable path to sustainability would do nicely right about now.

Many have silly amounts of their total net worth here, so I do hope it recovers. Let's see how GM handles the pressure. Can he deliver or will he crumble. This is the company's first real test.

The amount this got ramped on this cycle was crazy. Hope those heeded my warning and were very prudent with their sell orders.

Those who did not, welcome to the 88E carousel. Many have fallen before you.

Until the next cycle.

Look like I should get back out the "told you so" bunting again. It's getting rather worn.

Where are the rampers? I want to hear from them. Come come, dont be bashful

SmallerPI, this phrase should be the only text on the "who we are" section of their website. Literally hit the nail on the head with that one.

Yup, fortunately only £1k as most on here were expecting it to double or triple today. They would have got bumped even worse than they already have.

Another ridiculously ramped IPO valued pre-IPO at 7-8x revenue? Who came up with that number? The London markets sure had something to say about that. This IPO was clearly designed to bump newbies and cash out whilst the tide is still high. The only ones laughing are Deliveroo, which will probably never make a penny in profit given that it couldn't even get anywhere near profit in 2020. Plus the IIs didn't gave this a wide birth with the uber ruling. Really did not need hindsight to see where this was going today.

Plus we all know how the London markets love high growth stocks.....not.

Goodhart's law: "Once a useful number becomes a measure of success, it ceases to be a useful number."

Read about it and try to understand it. This is all you require in order to understand what is happening with new IPO's and why that very brief window of opportunity has gone.

Get ready to breach 200. Its coming rookie. Convincing yourself that banks are in a bubble and likening them to the ridiculous bubbles in other corners of the markets (EV sector) will just cost you more now. Check bank p/b ratios, p/e ratios and a 10yr chart for reference to understand how cheap banks still are; UK banks in particular where Barclays are the best of the bunch. This could be the beginning of global reflation. Banks will move opposite to bubble sectors such as growth stocks, gold ect as they have been doing over the past few weeks. The amount of cash swirling will cause a large reflation overshoot.

If inflation materialises, stand back and watch the reflation of bank stocks. Shorting banks at present is crazy imo.

Yeah ndmLSE pretty much spot on. But looking at the historical context of 88E where equally good looking plays with decent logs, seismics and what not were found but ultimately ended up non commercial, you have to factor this in when calculating risk here. If you are holding just for the run up, then great job, money has been made. If not, then it may be that 88E has been very unlucky thus far which is possible, but the probability of this well being a success given a little historical context is low. I know you cant really compare one well failure to another wells chance of being successful, but it is not too crazy to begin to question the companies competence in analysis given that they have disappointed so many times on seemingly excellent looking prelims.

Anyway, this is all conjecture. Put your money down and take your bet. That simple really. But you cant blame anyone for having the hammer and chisel at the ready to add new names to the 88E memorial wall for those who have lost their shirts and join their numerous fellow comrades who have come a cropper in previous cycles. Heck we will need a bigger wall its that many.

I applaud and admire anyone who still has a glass half full attitude when it comes to 88E and having watched and been in and out of 88E over the last 5 years. They ought to be awarded zen status. But then again, you are correct in saying there is still a glass to drink out from which is an achievement in itself.

Still, 88E never fails to have a massive run-up before well results. I wonder how many will have the balls to see the results of this well out? The newbies will probably stick it out and be added to the 88E memorial wall for those who have lost their shirts, whilst the veterans who have been through previous cycles will surely know better. Or as i said, maybe nth time lucky?

So the cycle begins again. What is this now, 5th time lucky perhaps?

Ill give it to the board though, they sure know how to build excitement and sucker in punters. This SP always has a massive run-up before the inevitable duster that sends the sp down 70%.

Will this time be any different? If history is anything to go by, doubt it.

But run a butter knife over the surface and you can see the rot that runs to the core. This has been in terminal decline for the best part of a decade from mismanagement after mismanagement, SFO accelerated the decline in 2017, Covid added further fuel and now big clients pulling out for the foreseeable. What's to stop that contagion spreading and others following suit?

Granted It is cheap based on earnings, and book value is now sub par, and have taken lengths to treat the rot at the core. Personally, not cheap enough to entice me yet, and even then a speculative punt at best whilst SFO hangs over petrofac.

Absolutely amann. You have to remember that if inflation massively overshoots, interest rates will have to come off their record lows. For some context, average interest rates in the last 100 years is around 5%. Highly sensitive to bond yield movements now, which show no signs of abating.

Market is speculating heavily at the moment regarding inflation overshoot and all indicators point to overbrought. But banks are being heavily brought to act as a hedge to techs, and there is every chance high inflation could materialise. Banks have been savaged over the last 10 years with ultra low rates, this could be the beginning of long term cycles some sectors go through.

Must be crazy to short banks atm unless looking to hedge a position elsewhere or firmly believe deflation will be the dish of the day or inflation expectation will not materialise (despite recent inflation figures showing signs of life). A little context will show that 185 is not a demanding valuation.

Barclays will push to 200 in the coming weeks, and then probably onto 220 before the trade shows signs of fatigue.

GL regardless of positioning. I know some are openly short here.

Got to be worth a punt at these levels now as dust has completely settled after the madness a few months back. I'm in for ~500k shares with scope for more if SP drifts lower. Would be nice to see sub 1p to boost holding >1m.