Member Info for triumph1

Why is everyone so bearish here? Just look at inflation and T-yields. As long as the us10yr yield keeps pushing up, bank stocks will continue to rally for very obvious reasons. Nothing can beat banks when economies are expected to overheat.

I can see this rally to 200 very soon. Still very undervalued compared to its peers across the pond which is where the comparison should be made. Barclays is being priced similarly to lloyds which is just wrong.

I remember last year the Saudis vowing to burn oil shorts. Doing a fine job of this at the moment. £15 next barrier

Indeed. Once the China based charity stop providing us with a laugh a minute and the bed wetters are expelled.

The guardian and lefties take on the matter is hilarious. You feel that they dont fully commit to bashing Boohoo probably because of the hypocrisy of the source and the source itself, but then again an enemy of an enemy is a friend? Hilarious watching the tightrope walk of the lefties desperately trying to bash boohoo at the same time as trying not to side with a china based charity slating a UK company on slavery practices. The FT article on the matter is spot on.

Following the same pattern. A US induced selloff. Pharmaceuticals across the board are tanking. This should turn in H2, but until then I'll continue accumulating. I still have a £100 target on these bad boys in 12-18 months time

Hi lootgaloot,

Sure, i like what if scenarios and it doesn't take a brain surgeon to realise that airline leasing companies will struggle in high interest rate environments. That point is undeniable. The article, written in 2018 when interest rates were expected to begin creeping up higher outlines the headwinds faced in such scenarios, but also outlines other options in play for such companies. In all, high interest rates does not necessarily mean the death of airline leasing companies, they just have to adapt. AVAP have continued to grow and thrive since 2014 with a slowly rising interest rate background. The scenario you suggest i presume is based on the mother of all inflation spikes where interest rates climb back towards the historical mean of 5 or 6%? There are many arguments as to why this probably will never happen (or rather, couldn't happen again) in developed countries, but lets not get into that here. I have never spoken to anyone who feels so upbeat about future interest rates. You should load up on bank stocks in that case.

I'm not saying that if your scenario played out, what you are saying is wrong. But you have to ask yourself the probability of interest rates becoming problematic for AVAP even when taking into consideration credit downgrades (which would reverse once sector finally begins to recover) in the near-mid future. I dont know anyone who thinks interest rates are going to be anything but rock bottom for the next 5-10 years, forgetting about inflation overshoots in which the FED have already indicated that they will be sluggish to react.

If i based my decisions to invest on every possible scenario no matter how unlikely and ruled them out based on this, please find me a single company i could invest in. What i am saying is, the probability that AVAP will be above the current SP when the aviation sector really starts to recover is significantly higher than a spike in interest rates before the aviation sector recovers that will capitulate the company. After all, this is just a game of probability.

Or more importantly, in what order will these events occur? The likelihood is, i wont be around here long enough for interest rates to have an impact on AVAP, but will be for the sector recovery. I'm here purely for the aviation recovery play where deep value can still be found.

This sort of news is extremely scary select64. If true, this would have massive implications for boohoo. Alas it is fake and the fact the reporter did not publish the first line in boohoo's statement that directly contradict the article proves this point.

To those newbies who are less aware of how the media operate, they would have panicked and sold on that news as they wouldn't expect a major news source to blatantly lie about something like this. The company acted swiftly to mitigate the lie which is great to see. But this keeps happening to boohoo and this sky report was particularly sinister in nature. The company should at least look into setting an example and publicise their intent to at least look at the possibility of a deformation of character lawsuit.

The reporters e-mail address:

martin.brunt@sky.uk

And start throwing a few heavyweights around a courtroom with character deformation lawsuits in hand. That's exactly what this is. Knowingly reporting from dubious or unverified sources that will knowingly damage reputation is textbook deformation of character. Surely BOO must be looking into this action.

This is fake news. If this was true, it would be huge and be in every media outlet. Look at the sky article where they have posted boohoos response at the end, and where they have purposely left out the first paragraph of Boohoo's response mentioning that the company was not aware of any investigation. Everyone needs to message sky news and demand they amend that fake news report.

Lootagoot, regarding interest rate environments, you can say that about any company. The buy to let analogy is fair despite AVAP having a buyout option, but unless the company want to expand their fleet it is not an immediate worry. High interest rates do create other downward pressures such as aircraft value, but this cost as you say would be absorbed largely by these smaller carriers with little access to debt that would pass costs onto customers. Will this stop people flying regional? I highly doubt it. Obviously interest rates would be hedged on any floating rate loans (see note 15 in last RNS). What makes you think interest rates will shoot up any higher than what they were before covid in which AVAP thrived? There may be a temporary overshoot, but whacking up interest rates would be akin to pulling the lever on the trapdoor for many companies. I agree high interest rates would be bad for their business model of operating with newer planes where the depreciation curve is steepest, but least they could buy back their debt sub par like they already have been at about 70c on the dollar. There are other options for aircraft leasing companies in high interest rate environments such as using older planes ect. Here is a good article on the matter.

https://www.ocorian.com/article/if-interest-rates-continue-rise-where-next-aircraft-leasing

Re leasing model, many of your assumptions are based on the past. All airline balance sheets longhaul or regional have been decimated, all airline credit has been downgraded to junk or as good as. In fact, i would go as far to say that i would much rather invest in a small regional than a large longhaul as these will recover much faster, and in particular Asia have fared well. And your statistics re current leasing are irrelevant as most airlines are nowhere near 50% capacity let alone pre covid so it is far too early to determine how landscape has changed as they are not operating. More time is required to see how the landscape has truly changed in terms of leasing a opposed to buying and this can only happen when we are close to 2019 air mile figures, but my money is on leasing increasing from pre covid. Regionals are AVAP's main customer base and are faring much much better than major longhaul carriers who will no doubt see consolidation. Its these small regional asian carriers that are currently outperforming which is why the company are still churning a profit if you take away write downs. I think demand for leasing planes in this category will increase as well as longhaul players increasing the level of leasing to free up cash in balance sheets, and although consolidation is inevitable, i dont think it will happen quite to the extent you think, particularly in asia.

The stock still trades significantly below NAV and has an excellent track record of delivering decent returns. This has to be a much better recovery buy at these levels than an airline such as IAG or Easyjet. I wouldn't write off AVAP jus

Agreed soder. This is simply AIM mechanics at its worst (or best if you know how it works). Would be mad to sell on the 200day ma, but fear and panick do weird things. It's what I as a contrarian count on to make money. More than happy about this curent situation.

You can research the company all you like but if you have no grasp for AIM mechanics you will get eaten alive not by me, but by yourself when the fear and panick set in. That's what many here dont get. This happens to the very best of companies on AIM frequently.

So come on, hands up guys, who brought on the 200day ma at 630's ;)

Indeed triumphbunny. I see this as an opportunity to fill your boots.

200day ma....check.

Ahhhh vindication. I'm not usually a boastful person who likes to say 'told you so', but I must admit I am feeling a little smug and self righteous right towards some on here.

I still think novacyte is far too cheap however, and being a contrarian, I continue to be a buyer at these levels allbeit in small tranches. I hate the word 'top up'. I call it stake building.

4kandles, you have been on this BB for a while. Do you remember MTV (motive tv) and a poster called mrlithium over there years back?

Some uncanny similarities between happydays and mrlithium

Come on happydays. Surely you cannot believe what you are saying. 9 out of 10 CEOs may not own more than 1% of stock, but 99999 out of 100000 companies are worth magnitudes more than £1m. Ludicrous to use such statistics on such a company like MDZ. You will find most nanocaps have at least 50% insider ownership.

3.8% ownership here is probably equivalent to 1/5th of the rediculous salary paid to themselves. A much more prudent measure of CEO skin in the game is value of shares held/salary. You should now begin to get an idea of how silly your last comment was. There is no excuse for such a pathetic holding other than the CEO ( if you can call him that) talking b0110ck5 about "growing substantially in the coming months".

MDZ is an absolute dog. That's not up for discussion and not up for debate. That's just fact unfortunately. Whether they can move forward is what ultimately matters, and the evidence seen so far, and based on previous history, I see absolutely nothing to indicate something may change. If you trust a CEO who refuses to have skin in the game himself, then more fool you.

I have an interest here purely for AIM mechanics. Nothing more, nothing less. The best thing that could happen for SH is a RTO or a new CEO with a new direction in a new industry. Practically anything else other than what they are doing now will see value added here.

If the Directors put their money where their mouth is and back up their words of "the Directors believe have the potential to grow substantially over the coming months", i may be inclined to believe them. Otherwise, i translate this as simply trying to ramp to get another placing away. If they really believed their words, they would buy shares.

Unfortunately mediazest have got a history of doing jack squat, so thats what the market will believe until seen otherwise. The only reason anyone would (or should) be here for is AIM market mechanics and trying to catch a spike, not to invest in the company. The company is utter turd.

This could change of course if they want to at least attempt to do something meaningful with their listing. But i wouldn't hold your breath happydays. MDZ is a textbook definition of punt. I would fully expect to lose everything.

That and rising inflation which is pushing up treasury yields rapidly. We all know what is coming next. Bank stocks are pretty much the only hedge against a rising interest rate. Would be foolish to have no bank stocks in your portfolio now IMO.

agree emil11. But they never will. The company has been listed for decades and never made a meaningful profit or done anything meaningful, so on that basis there is no reason to think that the future will be any different.

But saying that, with a mcap of £1m, the slightest whiff of a major change, a few contract wins or shift of strategy could sent the SP into orbit and could 10bag rapidly from this mcap. 100% agree that companies such as this are worth punt money just in case. My strategy is to have a punt portfolio, about a grand in each spread across 10-15 similar mcap companies. 8/10 i will lose which i expect. 1 or 2 out of 10, you could win huge.

Here with you Scoobydoo. Not to mention most of their planes are for regional travel which will recover much faster than long haul and leasing planes will be all the rage on the other side of this. And of course as you said, more Asia focused which have not been hit nearly as hard. Massive discount to NAV, and well under the radar. My kind of stock and a fantastic aviation recovery play.

Indeed. SH are tired of playing dot to dot now and the rampers on twatter and this BB that keep telling investors to "connect the dots" and other such drivel is wearing thin. GM didn't even provide us with new dots today. This BB may as well be an astrology class with the amount of interpretations that have been proposed from the tiny amount of dots we have. We are all going dotty here haha....

As for NCYT SP, it will be buoyed by cash in the bank and the revenues made in 2020 + 2021 forecasts. But then again, cash in bank dont count for much these days, its all about the jam tomorrow now...is there any jam here tomorrow? I personally think so, but judging by that humdrum interview you wouldn't think so and was about as inspiring as a Kansas corn field.

I'll probably look in at around 700-720ish again which is the last major support, and in 5-10% intervals from there. Something is needed to stem the bleeding, and fast. Lets hope GM's ego can handle that email donnodertrader. Many are right in calling out how important PR is, and in particular hats off to porky who got slapped down for calling out the dreadful communications from the company months back.

Ohh, not mr hindsight anymore VanV..hmm I wonder why ;) glad you picked up on our uncanny similarities though.

No one gets your gravy joke, and i'm far too young for bovril. Its the more groovy bisto for me. I can say though that this is not turning out to be the gravy train you made this out to be. Anyway, never mind hot stock...its looking like hot pot for me this chinese new year as I havent done too shabby on the two new weed stocks MXC and KNB new to town.

And moderators? I cant tell if its another one of your weird wordplays nobody gets or you actually think I contacted the moderators of this site. Why did they say something? Perhaps they agree with me haha. But I can assure you I havent reported a single post of yours. You are too much fun. I mean come on, at least give me some credit. I'm not that sad VanV.