'Strong Buy' To 'Hold'23 Feb 2022 20:13
I’ve never stayed awake for 48 hours until this week. It took 24 hours to actually process that RNS fully on Monday. I doubt there are many posters who have been more bullish about this company than me over the last few weeks, you can imagine I’m feeling, like you, more than a little beaten up right now.
Had a very difficult conversation with my long suffering wife yesterday about the heavy losses, so fortunate to have her understanding. Truly heart wrenching to hear some of the stories of personal loss, they were so similar to the posts after the Sirius Minerals debacle. Back then a group on the LSE board had to reach out into the real world to find the identity of one individual who posted a suicide message, having gambled his life savings on that share - At least we have been spared that on this occasion.
Looking back and given the evidence provided, I still think we all made the right decision to invest, which sounds as if I’m in denial as we were 85% down on the day. Having unknotted my stomach, started eating again and stopped continually pacing around, I have reassessed and still believe that this drug is commercially viable.
What no one has taken into account in the thousands of posts over the last few days is that inhaled interferon is safe and is well tolerated. This is a massive ‘unique selling point’ that should be highlighted much more in official communications.
I can confirm first hand that corticosteroids have long lasting side effects and I would imagine that the maximum daily life saving doses taken by hospitalised patients over a number of weeks will also have similar effects.
The truth is this share was always going to stand or fall on the results coming out of America, not the UK. This is why I haven’t and won’t be selling a bean until that point.
Sprinter has ensured we won’t be enjoying the profits envisaged by RM in his original presentation back in 2016, but we should at the very least get our money back and then some more modest gains if US results are good. Team USA won’t have let a small UK company complete their flagship phase 2 trial without good reason and Polygon’s recent activity adds to that view. Polygon effectively controlling the company (many thanks to GGGG21 for his contributions, yet again, this eve) does not put the BOD, or in a healthy position.
You may remember, the US are trying to develop the concept of Telemedicine and ‘at home’ treatments. If Activ2 results are positive, then this drugs fits that profile perfectly and we may see some real uplift in the share price, although it's a long, long way back from here.
Anything less and investor sentiment, which is everything on AIM, will take over once more and then more 24 hour horror will unfold.
Big losses on SXX, really massive gains with NCYT, big gains with SNG followed by big losses, desperately hoping AGL comes good in March. AIM – Not good for the soul or blood pressure.
Off to eat some more humble pie and then hopefull