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DocD -
I always take note of your posts, as most are usually well worth reading and generally contain credible, well presented viewpoints. However, many are presented as fact, not personal opinion.
For example:
'...hardly anything in Brysoa's long treatise is correct.'
Maybe you could include, 'in my opinion' at the end of that sentence, for much of what is in discussion we are not yet privy to, if indeed it exists at all.
I can't remember the poster from last week who used a phrase similar to, 'the company are leaving a trail of breadcrumbs for us to follow', but they were obviously referring to the range of activities behind the scenes that have taken place since last February’s debacle.
Whether the endless networking, schmoozing, hiring, presenting etc amounts to anything we’ll soon find out.
We’re either being led down a very long garden path and being deliberately kept in the dark or our patience will eventually be rewarded by some concrete news leading to a re-rate in the share price.
Although I have a degree of loyalty to the potential of the drug and the founder, I’m becoming increasingly tired by Marsden’s reluctance to update the humble retail investor.
I have no interest in weekly communications regarding what biscuits are on the tea trolley, but a ten minute overview of the current situation wouldn’t go amiss at this stage.
I’d be interested in your view regarding the percentage chance of eventually turning a profit here, or not as the case may be. No worries if you don't wish to quantify your thoughts in such a manner.
ATVB T
Brysoa -
Re Your 14.49 - Post of the month by a country mile.
Thank you for succinctly summarising the many snippets and thoughts that swirl in and out of my brain regarding SNG during a busy working week and even more so over the weekend - I doubt I am alone in this respect.
In general, I'd say I was a 'conviction investor', an individual who believes in the product, technology or service an individual company provides and am quite prepared to play the long game in regard to my investment.
Having being unlucky enough to suffer from severe respiratory illness from the age of seven until the age of thirty (now well controlled due to several new drug developments over the decades) I have a particular interest in the success of SNG.
I realise this can be classed as 'emotional attachment', not recommended when investing , but in this case the evidence provided to date is so compelling I'm staying to the end, whatever the outcome.
Having said all that, this is not a 'done deal' by any means at this stage. The road to commercialisation will be rocky to say the least.
For one, A USA democratic government won't look too kindly on a small UK pharma coming to the world's rescue - They have to be seen to play that role and there are political barriers to overcome for sure, let's hope the influential American medical players can use their influence in getting this over the line on our behalf.
I think we will have a clearer picture before the end of Q1.
ATVB T
Synnerman -
Having been on this page for roughly three years now, I know the cast of characters well, some have agendas, some have genuine concerns and some are simply damaged individuals who don't handle life in the real world well, so migrate online onto boards like this.
I'm politely asking the guy to back off a little, now the daily ramping/ abuse of other posters has ended.
If that doesn't work - fair enough, you know it's 100% agenda driven trolling.
ATVB
Macosta/ Mr Costs:
Taking away the amusing daily spats with Dunk, your multiple aliases and your purported large shareholding, I’ll take a rare and more measured response to your 100% negative stance regarding the dismal performance of SNG.
I fully understand your outlook and I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that the constant and excessive repetition of your views throughout 2022 was a response to the sheer number of positive and completely vacuous posts from one particular poster (currently absent), whose behaviour (IMO) closely mirrored that of an individual who suffered from not one, but two personality disorders.
Mercifully these have ceased in 2023, only time will tell whether this is a temporary or permanent situation.
Like many, I found the state of this board during much of 2022 to be a source of constant frustration and annoyance and I realise you were merely attempting to redress the balance.
As the board has now returned to some degree of normality and reasoned discussion, could you limit your constant negative posts to weekly instead of daily from now on?
Not trying to gag you, free speech is precious, but keeping up this level of constant negativity puts you in a bad light.
You are clearly articulate and some of what you say carries weight, it would do more so if you posted the same message less often.
Your post (below) from 13th September didn’t really help your credibility rating did it?
Less content and more reasoned substance from today onwards please. If you don’t have any, don’t post.
‘Jannsen - this amazing collaboration don't even want us for the world beating drug, they want to use some office desks or whatever it is.’
Truly one of the low points of 2022 on here and that is really saying something.
T
Vertis? This is no time for latin Doc. :)
Strive was always going to be the key - Will SNG finally be allowed permission to unlock the potential here?
How big will the collective sigh of relief be on this board if correct?
They'll probably here it across the pond.
ATVB T
Paladin –
Very few posters would disagree with your views in relation to narcissistic behaviour.
However, it is easy to focus only on those that have negative views and ignore or simply miss the narcissist(s) who relentlessly post positive views (trolling in plain sight), which distorts the situation to new or inexperienced investors looking for genuine insight.
I recall a previous poster who had a very similar, almost unique writing style to your own who was the recipient of a very confrontational, attritional post from such an individual last year, causing them to cease posting.
I noted with interest you started posting a month or so after this unsavoury incident, your summaries and balanced views of the situation are always a welcome read.
The poster ‘Waiteoxford’ earlier today used the term ‘squabblefest’.
This was the root cause of the poor quality of this board for much of 2022, certainly during the summer, often descending into chaos - A squabblefest indeed. Any new posters would have decided this was no place to obtain any sort of decent analysis or balanced viewpoint.
It was good to see a mature, balanced debate here over the weekend, a welcome return to the informed discussion we used to see during the initial phase 2 trial period. Only 10 – 15 posts a day back then, similar figures today during this limbo week.
Interesting to note that the share price dipped to circa 35p at the time, but now with so much more positive data we are now languishing at this current low level.
Obviously SNG are now classed by the majority of investors as ‘damaged goods’ after their failed trial. They simply cannot afford to get it wrong next time.
I’m aligned with your view that we’ll see a positive outcome here, but wary of the many headwinds between now and then.
Wishing you and all holders a successful year ahead.
Just to rub salt in our wounds, 'Proactive Investors' have published their end of year stats showing the best and worst performing AIM shares for 2022.
With over 800 shares on the AIM market, SNG came in the bottom ten.
The best performing share in 2022 gave investors a healthy + 304% return.
From today's lowly level, this would only take us to 55.75p
Leaving most investors still well underwater.
Dog or star share in 2023??
I think we'll find out before the daffodils begin flowering.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1002143/aim-stars-and-flops-prospex-wins-the-2022-blue-riband-1002143.html
Welcome back BG - Really good to see you posting again.
ATVB T
Since that truly gut wrenching day back on 21st February, there has been mounting evidence to suggest that this treatment is safe, effective and well tolerated with absolutely none to the contrary. In addition, specific patient types/ level of illness whereby this treatment can be used most effectively have been identified.
I still hold the view that the logical conclusion of the chances of ‘Synterferon’ actually reaching the lungs of patients going forward from 2023 and beyond is still 90%.
In March 2020 Synairgen had 19 employees, since then the company has morphed from a small research and development company to quasi production within three years. This rate of development is virtually unheard of within the pharma industry and doesn’t happen without good reason.
The fact that Synairgen have still kept their production infrastructure intact (third party contracts, employees etc) should tell you something about the chances of success.
There are many detractors who will describe this view as completely delusional, they may be proved right and have a right to air their views. Time will tell, as at this stage they have the upper hand, as the company face many obstacles and headwinds from here to production, not least the worsening macro-economic conditions and Synairgen’s apparent total lack of influence within political and pharma circles both at home and abroad.
As an aside, I wonder when Viletrader/ Quaser etc’s parents held their newborn in their arms and were musing what might become of them – Lawyer, plumber, street cleaner etc, I doubt the option of ‘keyboard warrior wasting their life online, goading shareholders of a currently beleagured pharma minnow’ was near the top of their list – If only they could see what their efforts amounted to….
I tend not to take the advice of complete strangers on a chat room, instead I prefer to follow those who are slightly more informed and possibly more suitably qualified.
I’m currently aligned to the views taken by Rick Bright, the man who recently held the most senior position within the USA’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and holder of a Phd in immunology and molecular pathogenesis, with over 25 years experience in adressing pandemic outbreaks.
It is clear that Bright sees host targeted inhaled antivirals as the way forward and has stated that ‘preparedness’ should begin sooner rather than later. Amen to that.
Dr. Bright or Viletrader? – Your choice.
As a reminder, I’ll leave you with the famous quote from Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors of all time:
‘The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient’.
Or put another way, ‘This time next year Rodders’.
ATVB T
PS – Many thanks to to The Paladin, Doc and Ghia and twelve other posters for the welcome back after my seven month absence from the board – much appreciated.
About this time of year investors tend to reflect on the performance of their chosen shares.
Whatever your views on the prospects for Synairgen, you have to admit 2022 has been a torrid year for the company.
On Friday 18th February the share price was 171p.
Two weeks later on Friday 4th March the share price had plummeted to 23p.
This effectively took the share price back to levels not seen since March 2020, when I first took an interest.
The losses look even greater if you look back to the high of 246p in August of that year.
171p – 23p equates to an 87% loss in two weeks.
With today’s share price languishing around 17p this now represents a staggering loss of 90%.
To recoup a 90% loss, a gain of 900% must be made to revert to the previous price of circa 170p.
This is the stark reality shareholders face moving into 2023.
I know many have averages much lower than this, but the vast majority are currently well in the red.
With no recent update forthcoming from CEO Marsden regarding the way forward, it is currently difficult to make an accurate assessment of the risk/ reward ratio, leaving LTHs attempting to read between the lines, picking over the minutiae and generally bickering between themselves.
A phase 3 trial, platform trial, joint venture, partnership etc would lead to a significant re-rate of sorts, but as retail investors we can only pluck random figures out of the air.
None of the above would put the share price anywhere near previous highs.
The only event that will take your account from red to green is commercial production.
Until Synairgen actually start selling their product, the share price will not move back into treble figures.
The pharma world moves at a glacial pace and drugs of this magnitude only come to market every thirty years or so. Most AIM investors expect a return within months, not years, leaping about like frogs on a pond from lily pad to lily pad hoping to land on the next ‘big thing’. Patience is a commodity in short supply within this sphere.
The situation is not helped by CEO Marsden’s poor choice of words e.g. ‘pushing hard for results’ and ‘at haste’ to name but two. The lack of updates and complete ‘radio silence’ in between does nothing to quell the nerves and gives the flawed characters on boards such as this the opportunity to sow their seeds of doubt. On the other side of the coin, the incessant vacuous weekly ramping from one particular source has left this board in a sorry state for much of the year.
In February I posted a long article setting out why Synairgen had, in my view, a 90% chance of eventually getting their drug on the shelves after almost two decades of research and development. The change in ‘standard of care’ for patients during the phase 3 trial has now effectively put back the timescale at least two years, with the route to commercialisation still remaining unclear.
(Cont above)..
Conviction Life Sciences - I can vouch for the integrity of their founder.
Andrew Craig who created 'Plain English Finance' some years ago is as honest and straightforward as they come, a refreshing change in the investment world.
I recommend reading his learning materials and website, very easy to digest and doesn't get involved in anything remotely risky.
Very reassuring to see him coming onboard the Angle train.
ATB T.
Bantham - The train is waiting, so step off the platform and climb aboard before it leaves the station, but mind the gap as we'd hate to lose you.
Completely agree with you Phantom, trying to call the bottom (or indeed the top) is risky and a bit greedy. There's so much potential upside here, why wait?
Impossible to predict when news will come, but when it does this will move North quickly and those waiting on the platform will miss the train.
Before 'the herd' arrive, well done to the company and all LTHs.
Many thanks to those who posted such great research and news items over the years, especially in the bleaker times - much appreciated.
So to the burning question - What is a fair takeover price? What would you be happy with?
ATVB T.
Although we know SNG’s drug is not a ‘cure all’, we also now know it has the potential to successfully treat specific types of covid patients at specific stages of illness both at home and in hospital, nothing else has come remotely close to doing this.
It’s frustrating for both shareholders and clinicians alike that this life saving drug is not yet being administered to patients, surely a JV will provide the required momentum to get this to market.
In this limbo period, rumour and speculation are rife, which only leads to a feeling of unease for many, but with Polygon increasing their holding and the recently announced plans to present Sprinter deep dive results in May, plans appear to be covertly advancing at some level, however limited that may be.
The problem we currently face is politicians and scientists have completely opposing narratives but we only have to look at recent lockdown images from Shanghai to confirm that politicians can only pretend that covid has gone away for so long and as covid doesn’t have any boundaries, new variants will ensure the virus once more gains the upper hand.
More than ever, we need antiviral treatments to tip the balance as we move further into 2022 and beyond.
You can read the daily ‘drip, drip’ drivel from the flawed characters on here if you like (I have 40+ filtered in 25 months) or you can follow the recent guidance from the senior front line consultant who treats covid patients on a daily basis – Your choice.
As a footnote, a number of years ago another fledgling company lost 90% of it’s share value in a short space of time and disgruntled investors wondered if they would ever get their money back, let alone make a profit. That company was called ‘Amazon’ – Wonder what happened to them?
Still all to play for….
ATVB T
Last weekend I put forward the view that significant Sprinter P3 deep dive results should reverse the share price action, but maybe not to previous levels. I’m more inclined to put my faith in the more influential high profile Activ-2 programme, as I doubt an application for EUA would be successful without American backing.
The total cost of the Activ programme must be eye-watering, given that over 200 drugs began the initial trial stage, with the failed SAB trial costing the U.S. taxpayer 100 million alone.
With only one safe, directly inhaled drug remaining, I can’t imagine the Americans will abandon SNG at this stage, as they have too much to lose, both in reputation and cost.
Activ-2 phase 2 data must be more than encouraging, which is why lead investigators from both parties are currently redesigning new trial protocols.
On 17/03 poster Joey Diamond confirmed the Activ programme is already evolving in his post:
‘Yesterday another drug S-217623 was enrolled on a newly designed trial activ-2d for outpatients. This is an NIH sponsored trial against placebo in outpatients with a high risk. The trial has sites across the world and not just USA.
So activ-2 is continuing but in a different form, so there may well be an activ2-e trial.’
87% of Sprinter P3 patients were on steroids – You can be sure that won’t be the case in future, a different comparator will give a different set of results, though actually finding enough willing patients with breathing difficulties who are not currently being treated with steroids must be one of the biggest challenges faced by clinicians going forward.
The emphasis on the Sprinter trial was on hospitalised patients, which rather took the emphasis off the vast cohort of patients who could be treated at home in the early stages of illness.
The ‘sweet spot’ i.e. the small and crucial 2-3 day window of how many days the patient has experienced severe breathlessness should be determined by Activ-2 data.
Remember, the NIH are looking closely at ‘telemedicine’ as a way of reducing costs and delivering treatment more efficiently as part of their new ‘preparedness’ programme for future pandemics, in addition to stockpiling.
Synairgen have already proven it is possible to deliver their nebulised treatment safely in a home setting via video call in their small, but highly significant P2 trial.
I highlighted in an earlier post that safe, broad spectrum drugs of this nature are only discovered every 30 – 40 years, the blue and brown inhalers that are now so commonplace were introduced in 1968 and 1972, the forward earnings potential of treatments like this are difficult to calculate, but are immense.
(Cont above)….
From today’s posts: Andy – Size – Tommy:
I posted on this subject at some length last week, referencing content from an earlier, but highly significant post from the working A+E consultant who works with covid patients.
Focusing on patients who present late with symptoms, have co-morbidities, are elderly etc should take the 36% baseline figure to 50% or above.
Preventing half of these patients from progressing to severe disease or death on a high dependency/ ICU ward would save global healthcare agencies millions per annum.
Why SNG didn’t lead with this and bury the primary endpoints in the RNS is hard to fathom, but they will be looking to tease out more meaningful figures from this specific cohort of patients IMO.
Obviously steroids are far cheaper to administer in the first instance, but taking the following figures into account, price is not going to be the overriding issue when dealing with patients who don’t respond to dex etc.
Estimated cost of 14 day course of ‘Synterferon’ when bought in bulk £1200 - £1500 (taken from 2020 conversation notes).
Basic daily cost of ICU occupation before ventilation:
USA £1334 ($1772) – Average length of stay = 6 days.
England £1621.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7045184/
https://today.tamu.edu/category/health-environment/
Anything around the 50% mark should raise the share price to some degree, but as secondary figures are coming off a trial with failed primary endpoints, I wouldn’t expect a return to the pre-results price of 171p, I think only Activ-2 results would have the power to do that.
The problem shareholders currently face is that SNG has been lumped in with the 200 plus failed drugs, which is a gross mis-conception, bearing in mind the share price was 35p pre P2 results, now we have all this extra data from P3 the share price is languishing around 24p.
I can’t say I’m comfortable that our fate now lies largely in American hands, if they abandon us this goes to 5p and we should all be mentally prepared for such an outcome, but I believe this is highly unlikely, as they would have done so mid P2. The ‘mood music’ coming from across the pond is positive, but it’s a case of ‘don’t count your chickens….
There is a growing body of evidence to bolster confidence in interferon b, before the circus starts again tomorrow morning, I’d like to thank Titania and Tommy for putting in the time and effort providing links with relevant evidence over the last couple of months – much appreciated.
ATVB T
Richlist – In reply to your 02.14 this morning:
You could try and obtain a definitive answer to your question by e mailing Jody Brookes, head of clinical operations at Synairgen and enquire if she or any of her colleagues showed any signs of arrogance or complacency during the Sprinter trial, expecting successful P3 results as a formality – I’d love to see the reply!
Seriously though, given that there are $billions of long-term earnings at stake, not to mention high profile clinical reputations, not forgetting the seriously ill patients who kindly agreed to take part, I doubt arrogance or complacency played a part. The stakes are high and the pressure to deliver must be enormous.
As mentioned previously, we’re all seem to be armchair covid experts now and we also have the benefit of hindsight.
It cannot be denied that mistakes have been made that have severely damaged the share price and dented clinical reputations. You can be sure Messrs, Holgate, Monk, Brookes and Marsden will have had their behind closed doors inquest and will now be regrouping for the next phase alongside their American counterparts. Wouldn’t you have loved to be a fly on the wall in the boardroom on that day?
This is new ground senior clinicians, investigators and indeed ourselves as individual retails shareholders are all covering together, but the product that underpins your investment is sound and has commercial value, of that there is no doubt.
As we all now realise, unlike COPD or Asthma, covid is a moving target and it’s taking time to pin down the ‘right time, right place, right dose, right patient’ conditions to give figures that can make investors feel once again relaxed about their investment decision.
With regard to the framework in place to actually get this treatment from lab to patient, time will tell if the company is overstaffed or perfectly positioned to finally get this drug on the shelves. The question is, have they put the cart before the horse? I think not, but we’re all entitled to our own personal views.
This is AIM and if you’re after the big gains, you have to take the risks and the setbacks. Many, including myself, have had our ‘Marsden moan’ on this board, but I’m now trying to look to the future with a positive, but still realistic and more cautious frame of mind - Still all to play for in my book.
ATVB T
Matterhorn – Can’t fault any of your views expressed in your 12.13 post, thanks again for the considered input, although I accept others may have differing viewpoints, levels of trust and anger re SNG going forward.
I know many have completely lost faith and are no longer in this for the long haul and can’t wait to hit the ‘sell’ button when/ if losses are recovered.
The current sour mood is totally understandable, but I can’t square the circle - The previous actions of the company don’t appear to match the current situation.
The infrastructure is all in place, signing contracts with with Ashfield, Aerogen, Akron and Thermofisher etc without the surety of success seems implausible.
Looking at the previous experience of the recently appointed chief commercial officer, chief regulatory officer and quality services manager (manufacturing), to name but three, I struggle to imagine these and several others would join the company in the mere hope that phase 3 results would be favourable and were a ‘given’.
There must be more information to which we are not privy to tempt them on board. I guess it depends on your stance whether this is wishful thinking or sound logic.
RM’s last words on the promo video, ‘We are ready to play our part’ takes me to the swan analogy, not much appears to be happening on the surface, but underneath....
I realise the depth of feeling and waning of trust on the board at present, but I can’t bring myself to believe SNG have not been given unofficial preliminary feedback regarding Activ-2, especially taking into consideration the comment from previous NIH director Francis Collins, ‘Antivirals for coronaviruses are task number one’. (Courtesy of poster Joey Diamond).
There are too many ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes’ for some, but I think the ‘Go’ button will be pressed at some point this year, but only with the assistance of a major player with a strong USA presence.
At the risk of repeating myself, I agree positive Sprinter deep dive results will lift the share price, but only Activ-2 can offer the rewards that tempted us to invest in the first instance.
ATVB T
Matterhorn - Many thanks for taking the time to post such an well considered reply - much appreciated.
I'll reply when time permits - The demands of self-employment running a small business won't allow at present.
ATVB T