Member Info for Trinityman

Tommy –

‘We’re very close to an RNS’ – I hope that doesn’t come back to bite you, or have you had the nod? ;)

Happy to wait until 30th June for the latest P2 trials to start, but very unhappy with Marsden’s lack of updates/ comms in general. We could do with an update on how preparations for P2 are progressing.

This topic has been ‘done to death’, so let’s not rake over those particular coals yet again.

As we wait, it’s worth revisiting some facts to add a sense of realism to our current situation. The following is a reminder of how close SNG came to success. Close, but no cigar.

Apologies for not crediting the poster that gave us:

‘The P-value is an indication of the probability that the observed results occurred by chance.

By convention a P-value of 0.05 or less (a 5% chance it was a fluke, or 95% chance that it wasn't) is considered statistically significant. A P-value of 0.07 is considered to have too high a chance of having been achieved by fluke, and is therefore generally considered statistically insignificant.

It's quite a high bar.

With the small trial numbers it's very difficult to get to statistical significance. P=0.07 is pretty close.’

The next set of results only require a P-value reduction of 0.02 or better.

By selecting very specific target groups for P2, it is quite reasonable and logical to expect the next set of results to finally reach the nirvana of ‘statistical significance’. We can then look forward to a funded P3 via the safety net of a JV, however unfavourable the terms may be.

Credit to ‘Jint’ for crystallising the situation:

‘These diagnostic randomized clinical trials or test-treatment trials are considered the gold standard of proof for the clinical effectiveness or clinical utility of diagnostic tests.

Specific target patient group: 60+ yrs – hypertension – obese – auto-abs neutralizing type I IFNs in approx 10%.’

In other words, ‘precision medicine’.

Senior management, especially Monk and Brookes will have learnt valuable lessons from Sprinter, so the upcoming P2 trials will have to be virtually bullet proof, if not it will be a case of ‘Last one out, please turn the lights off.’

Better to start P2 as late as 30th June to give the best chance of success rather than risk failure once more.

As this is our final throw of the dice, I’m guessing the head honchos in Southampton are thinking the same.

I’ll leave you with a previous quote from Xviolet:

‘If you hadn't invested previously….the risk/reward case right now is quite something.’

At 5-6p, I agree.

Many thanks to those who offered kind messages of support recently, much appreciated.

Frustrating to see another prolonged spat breaking out as a result of my post, not what I intended. At the end of the day, we all want the same things:

successful trial results, another dramatic upturn in the share price and the safety net of a JV.

Much of the bickering on here is due to the prolonged period of silence from HQ, Marsden has created a vacuum that has a negative impact on both shareholders and share price.

One thing we can all agree on – We could do with some news, the sooner the better.

My counting beads tell me there are roughly 80 trading days left before the end of H1. With each passing day the clamour on here will get louder from the ‘usual suspects’.

C’mon RM, throw us a bone or throw us to the wolves.

Size82 –

Good to hear you’re still with us, as usual I agree with your latest post.

If I may, I’ll re-post one of your earlier offerings from my notes:

06/01/23:

‘The risk with a multi-virus trial is its complexity, and as Doc.Daneeka astutely points out we'd be starting at phase II. The Sprinter trial shows how something that was meant to be pretty bullet proof can fail. It's hard work.

We simply can't have another failure - we're practical toast as it is. Just look at the sp and the cash balance. If we get a second chance I really hope it's an inpatient trial specifically targeting those really struggling…. Synairgen need to make sure their next trial succeeds at any cost otherwise it will be their last.

It’s called risk management and if we're honest they didn't do a good job at protecting shareholder interests when investing our capital in the Sprinter trial. This simply can't happen again.

Running a trial under powered for secondary endpoint success is not good risk management. It was a massive oversight and I hope lessons have been learnt.’

Words that are as relevant today as they were over twelve months ago.

* Note to DocD – Thanks for sharing your story about your mum, much appreciated.

* Note to TommyD – I hope your cancer treatment brings some respite to your condition. I have prostate cancer myself, so I totally empathise with your situation.

ATVB T

Sorry to see my recent post was the catalyst for yet another unpleasant spat on this page. I apologise if I gave the impression that I was comparing outpatient drugs with SNG’s inpatient treatment on cost alone. Looking back I should have clarified this, as ‘fruits’ pointed out, inpatient against outpatient drugs can’t be compared. The prices quoted were merely for interest, showing how much various treatments cost these days.

The only comparison that really matters is the cost of SNG’s treatment v cost of daily ICU care.

Although I haven’t posted for eight months, I have read all contributions on a regular basis and it has been difficult to witness the six pillars of this page bickering and sniping at each other at regular intervals.

DocD, Doc83, Gunto, Fruitsnveg, TommyD + the master summariser The Paladin -

You fellas have kept the candle burning for many months now under difficult circumstances and all have contributed good insight/ info on a regular basis. I think the constant bickering and sniping is mainly frustration due to a lack of progress and prolonged silence from Marsden, hopefully he will give us all a bone to chew on in due course.

I have been reading this board since December 2019 and bought my first tranche of shares almost four years ago to the day in early March 2020.

Since that time I have been grateful to the following posters (and several others too many to mention) for providing valuable insight and opinion:

Matml74 – Schrow – Matterhorn – Dactions – Size82 – Prion – Beforegolf – Hanoihank – HelloSanDiego – Massive Ray – GGGG21 – Wpa5 – JoeyDiamond – HelloSanDiego – Ghia – Wigster – Doc83 – DocD – Hanoihank – Titania – Aether – Xviolet – Brysoa – Fruitsnveg – Wigster – Gunto – Jackman – Jint – Brand – TommyD (preferably the pre-crash version) – The Paladin (Formerly TL Williams).

I particularly miss the input from the first ten, who sadly no longer post here.

On the other side of the coin, the rogues’ gallery continues to grow:

Sangijuelas – Shadowboxer – Eva – Ndn71 – Burstead – Professional – Fanifesto – Scinv (returned as Scinv_temp) – Andybe4 – Macosta/ Mr Costs – Spacman.

I particularly miss Eva, who only posted at weekends, posing as a young woman from Malta with a glamourous lifestyle jetting around Europe, posting in broken English, who was actually a British male stringing along the gullible – most amusing at the time.

Our investment is now leading us into the complicated world of bio chemistry. Since my teens I’ve taken a keen interest in the workings of the respiratory system and associated drugs, but I have to confess my knowledge of auto-abs/ bio markers etc is limited to say the least. I doubt I’m not alone in this respect, I guess we’ll all be armchair experts by the end of the year. The saga continues….Hopefully not for another four years.

ATVB T

(cont from below)….

The ‘uncomfortable truth’ is the attraction isn’t about keeping chronically sick/ elderly patients alive for longer, it’s about saving money.

This is a discussion that will never take place in public by politicians or those holding the healthcare purse strings. Publicly admitting as much is hardly a vote winner is it?

Why do you think authorities were so slow to react when the elderly were dropping like flies in old folks homes during the height of the pandemic? Over stretched on resources, staff and budget, they were quitely letting nature take it’s course without actually saying as much.

4 Dexamethasone – the ‘low cost’ drug that killed our hopes, dreams and portfolios.

The decision to prescribe large doses of dex to acute covid patients proved to do more harm than good in the long run and would now only be given in moderation.

It’s worth revisiting previous contributions from two reliable posters to confirm:

Link posted by ‘Brand’ –

Peter Horby Tweet: ‘COVID-19 patients who require oxygen alone (not ventilation), a higher dose of corticosteroids (dexamethasone 20 mg once daily for 5 days followed by 10 mg once daily for 5 days) is harmful compared to low dose (dexamethasone 6mg daily).’

RECOVERY pre-print out. In hypoxic (low levels of oxygen in bloodstream) hospitalised COVID-19 patients requiring either no oxygen or simple oxygen only, higher dose corticosteroids significantly increased the risk of death compared to usual care, which included low dose corticosteroids.

The RECOVERY trial continues to assess the effects of higher dose corticosteroids in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 who require non-invasive ventilation, invasive mechanical ventilation or extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation.’

Also – ‘Prion25’:

‘The (over) use of steroids (dexamethasone) causes black fungus diseases because of immunosuppression whereas interferon beta does not.’

ICU patients with acute respiratory conditions are going to need an alternative.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

DocD –

In light of your observations in your 10.12 post today, it’s worth taking another look at the current position regarding covid drugs. Maybe your family have first-hand anecdotal evidence regarding Paxlovid side effects?

1 Paxlovid – Side effects: Diarrhoea + vomiting are common, also does not mix well with 40 commonly prescribed medicines. £445 per course (Pfizer - USA).

2 Simnotrelvir – The latest trial drug with a component of Paxlovid called ritonavir, which helps to limit the breakdown of simnotrelvir. (Simcere - China).

Initially tested on more than 600 people with a median age of 35, around half of whom had at least one risk factor, such as obesity, for severe disease. None of the participants had severe COVID-19. By the fifth day after treatment, SARS-CoV-2 levels in participants who’d taken simnotrelvir had dropped by about 30-fold more than in participants who’d taken a placebo. No idea of cost, as this is still under trial.

Side effects: A notoriously bad taste and the same level of incompatibility with a range of common medication as Paxlovid.

3 Xocova (ensitrelvir) – Phase3 trials met both primary and secondary endpoints – EUA approval in Japan – Received fastrack status from FDA. Well tolerated with very limited side effects. £320 per course. (Shionogi - Japan).

Estimated 2 billion dollars annual sales.

Out of these three, which would you prefer?!

Looking to the future, it appears that Shionogi may well win the commercial battle with regard to a ‘mass market’ treatment for patients with mild covid symptoms.

This link gives an indication of the numbers involved in breakthrough drugs if you get your trials right

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-27/shionogi-sees-covid-pill-reaping-2-billion-in-annual-sales-upon-u-s-approval

Obviously this is why Synairgen are now going down the ‘broad spectrum’ route and are now targeting the most vulnerable/ sick patients in an ICU setting.

The above three treatments need to be taken within three days of showing symptoms to be effective. Good luck with getting a GP appointment within this timescale in the UK. At least SNG are not faced with this issue.

Investors have been aware for some time that SNG no longer have a potential ‘cure all’ on their hands, the much quoted ‘it needs a fire to put out’ confirmed as much, but we do have a potential ‘niche drug’.

The kicker is the niche is more of a very large fissure, so it’s well worth persuing both medically and financially.

At over £1,000 per course (general consensus from conversations on this board during 2021), SNG’s drug is still attractive if P2/ P3 trials prove patients can leave ICU just one day earlier with no side effects.

The daily cost of an ICU bed in the UK was £1881 last March, so probably nearer £2,000 today.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2023-03-14.165361.h

(cont above)…

Today at 15.18:

‘Ghia... Oh the irony of your post...Most likely lost on you..’

If the term ‘irony’ is lost on anyone, it is totally and completely lost on this severely flawed character.

Courtesy of my colleague’s files, here is only a small selection of accusations/ abuse aimed at other posters:

You are the aggressor, not me….

I think you are simply rude.....

You love to dish out insults on here, but are offended when you get some stick.....

…is just a disruptor, toxic and best ignored, attention seeking muppet!

You really don't fool anyone here with your constant presence ....

You spend a lot of time on here...... !!!

The ONLY thing you bring to this board is abuse......Take a break sweetie!!!

You are such a hypocrite and a delusional one at that !!

You must have repeated it a hundred times now.....

Your grammar is terrible....

….is an attention seeker....That ego takes a lot of feeding.

(The above was aimed at a poster with 2,200 posts – The accuser has 10,500+)

Three standout examples:

Give it a rest….

You are rude, arrogant and dismissive of anyone who does not concur with your view.

Your tone needs working on….

This continuous disorderly pattern of behaviour recently caused the smart, but rarely heard poster ‘Andrewcapp’ to comment,

‘Do you understand what a hypocrite is?’

Naturally, Andrew didn’t receive a reply.

A first year pyschology ‘A’ level student would politely point out to Andrew that this is not hypocrisy, but an easily recognisable trait termed ‘deflection’.

Here, the individual’s subconscious will attempt to deflect their own poor behaviour onto others, the conscious mind is totally unaware they are perfectly describing their own faults, at the same time making a complete fool of themselves in public.

All this from the creature who spent the best part of 2022 playing the back end of TommyD’s patomime horse, including countless ‘Well done Tommy’, ‘Thanks Tom!’ posts, now aggressively and compulsively disagreeing with every single post from this individual.

It is significant that intelligent male posters are always the prime object of aggression. You can be sure that there will be a strong underlying, deep rooted reason for this behaviour.

Why individuals like this are allowed to post on forums where people are trying to make serious decisions on where to invest their hard earned money is completely beyond me.

Irony…. Probably thinks it’s the warm metal plate that gets the creases out of your clothes.

To those of you who are frustrated by the constant pointless arguments created on this board on a daily basis, the link below will provide a clear insight into the reason. This was covered well over a year ago, but until the regulator takes action the problem will persist.

Due to staff cuts, most LSE boards are now poorly regulated, allowing this type of behaviour to flourish unabated.

The specific signs/ traits to look out for are:

Frequently posts the same repetitive viewpoint.

Overtly and constantly critical, frequently looking down on others.

Arrogance.

Lack of empathy.

Has difficulty managing emotions and behaviour.

Unreasonably high sense of self-importance.

Reacts with rage or contempt and attempts to belittle others, in order to make themselves superior.

Major problems interacting with peers and feel easily slighted.

Speaks excessively and dramatically with strong opinions, but with few accompanying facts.

You will easily recognise two individuals exhibiting this type of behaviour on this page alone. Their behaviour becomes more exaggerated over time, as they move along the spectrum with age.

The poster ‘Aether’, who tuned into this problem some time ago summed up the problem in one sentence at the end of last year.

‘They don’t care what attention you give them as long as it is attention.’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJy-YcuXgao

Spacman @ 15.19:

Professional, please can you elaborate on your comment:

"And that is exactly why i have offered the company a solution as well (5-10mln)"

Four hours later and still we wait for elaboration on this pivotal funding option, maybe he's in deep discussion with Marden (whoever that is).

Or maybe he's taken his medication and is currently incommunicado.

Or maybe he's taking part in a spelling bee.

Doc83 -

I'd be particularly interested in what the exec they hired, who I remember had an excellent track record in pharma mass production/ quality control has been doing for the last two years.

I imagine he's European wordle champion by now and it's a safe bet he could solve the rubiks cube quicker than you and I. :)

As DocD said, they've bunkered down and I doubt they'll come out until they have p2 trial news to share.

I no longer have a problem with that, as we can only be concerned about what we can control.

Simply a waiting game now.

Doc83 -

Re your 20.34 last evening - It was me who originally used that quote regarding one of the basic duties a CEO should fulfil.

At the time I said we didn't need to know what biscuits were on the tea trolley etc, we don't need our hands holding, but a quarterly update on progress should come as standard.

Apparently not anymore.

I totally understand our capital was spent a long time ago and we are now surplus to requirements and the AGM is merely a 'fly in the ointment' so to speak, but a basic update every 3 months is surely not too much to expect.

Totally agree with you regarding a possible future placement. I don't see a rush to fill the begging bowl this time, having kept radio silence for so long.

Still positive we'll get a result somewhere down the line though.

ATVB.

'I think his purpose is to annoy other people and get reactions.'

'Moderation on this site is awful btw'

Two quotes today from the individual who told one LTH to 'f*ck off' and called another 'a dick'.

You can't make this stuff up, better than the telly.

Doc83 –

Apologies if I misinterpreted your post on Saturday evening re your thoughts on future price targets.

I think this share has aged us all over the years to some extent Doc, membership of LSE should come with a free blood pressure monitor, that’s for sure. At least we’re not invested in SYME, to my knowledge the most over hyped AIM stock in history.

TomD –

‘Interesting that the calculation of the companies worth starts from multiples of 6p’.

Where else could I start from? That’s the logical starting point as it's roughly my new average, as I said I’ve been building yet another position from around that figure, having lost a small fortune along with everyone else back on that truly awful February day in 2020, having previously made a small fortune in the summer of 2020 when promising P2 results were announced.

Ce la vie.

I've been in and out several times in between taking smaller profits, as I prefer this style of investing, even though it takes more time and effort than simply using 'buy and hold'.

I haven't posted for over eight months until now, as there simply hasn't been anything material to discuss.

Hopefully that will change sooner rather than later, but I'm quite prepared to wait as long as it takes.

Reading this page every day as I do, I realise that puts me in the minority.

Doc83 – Saturday evening @ 8.36 – ‘There’s an argument to suggest why shouldn’t we get to £10+.’

This week marks four years since I began reading this page. I bought my first tranche of shares three weeks later.

I have seen many posters come and go in that time – You are one of the more honest and reliable posters that always gives a decent summary of the current position.

As it is Saturday evening Doc and this is the ‘happy time’ of the week, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and call the above quote ‘the exuberance of youth’. I’m guessing from your username you may be at the tender age of 41ish.

Post - potential successful P3 results:

Bearing in mind we are no longer in the middle of a covid pandemic and we will most likely have a JV in place that almost certainly won’t be in SNG’s favour, I would put forward the suggestion that ‘The argument to suggest £10’ is either weekend wishful thinking or possibly alcohol fuelled.

6p to £10 = x166 bagger.

Take a look at this video from 7 years ago back in the day when a clean shaven Richard Marsden actually talked face to face with potential shareholders (If only).

This is when SNG were schmoozing retail investors around the UK, attempting to prise that hard earned folding out of individual bank accounts, promoting a potential circa 25p to £40 = x160 bagger (seriously?).

Scroll to 13.30 minutes and watch for a couple of minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzK7lCjN6Jw

The poster ‘Dactions’ (sadly no longer posting here) was in attendance and was convinced by RM’s presentation, much to his regret.

My father who taught me stock market fundamentals, advised me to half and half again any figure quoted by any company director trying to accumulate seed capital. Marsden alluded to £40, so I pencilled down a possible £10 = 40 bagger.

Today, the endgame absolute best case scenario for me at this level now would be 6p x 40 = £2.40. Anything above this would be dreamland, a more realistic view in my opinion would be between £1 - £2, depending on market conditions.

During Dec + Jan I’ve steadily been building yet another significant holding in SNG, as for me 6p represents the near bottom of an unloved stock that has huge potential, but I believe the days of £10+ have sadly long gone with Sprinter.

If P3 results are favourable a figure above the placing price of £1.75 would not be out of the question.

As an aside Doc, I hope you took the hint last summer regarding AGL when you made enquiries on that board. 10p to 31p inside two days last month was well worth waiting for, I hope you were on board.

ATVB T.

It's the end of 'dry January'.

It hasn't been easy - 31 evenings of drinking nothing but sauvignon blanc.

Just a touch of mild humour to add balance to a very toxic board.

Yes DocD, inhaled as opposed to intravenous is definitely the way to go, as Faron pharma found out to their cost during their covid trials.

Trial and error....trial and error....trial and success. Takes a decade or two, but we're close to the 'beginning of the end' regarding the science now. We may have to wait until the end of H1, I don't have a problem with that, but some investors seem more impatient than others.

T

Interesting nugget of information from the Polarean Imaging (POLX) December RNS:

‘Polarean has signed contracts to sponsor a new clinical trial in patients with COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) in collaboration with a leading nebuliser device manufacturer. The pilot study will explore the use of XENOVIEW MRI as the primary outcome measure in the evaluation of different aerosol drug delivery technologies of albuterol, a bronchodilator.’

Good to see research in respiratory illness is still ongoing in these trying times. Hopefully SNG will be issuing a similarly encouraging message to long suffering shareholders sooner rather than later.

Given the toxicity of this page at present, I would add a caveat that the above company is not a ramp or recommendation, simply relevant background information on yet another quiet day.

T

From the summer of 2023 –

Xviolet:

‘I have been warmed and inspired by how so many of us keep on posting and manage to be reasonably kind with each other.’

Can you get me some of those drugs Xv - Pleeease.

T

Rebs438 -

Post of the week. Although that award is not difficult to achieve on this board at present.

This, from one of the 30 or so long term members on here who have seen this board invaded by the recent price action.

Seen this so many times over the years on LSE, should go quiet as the price drifts further South before the next leg up.

Researcher1 -

Please stop showing off, it puts you in a very bad light - we're all making good money here, but with no way of proving the figures there's no point posting actual numbers.

Take your profit quietly, wait for the prostate RNS and then make some more, but please stop being smug, I thought you were better than that.