Member Info for Trinityman

Naewise @ 17.27:

Yes, you are correct. I creamed off a proportion of the NCYT profit to put into my 'saver' stock 'PUR'.
I will be adding to this regularly where possible, as the macro-economic situation gets worse throughout the year.

The more dollars Biden and the Fed print between them, the more gold I will buy as insurance.

ATVB.

FWIW I invested heavily into both NCYT and SNG in early March and have been in both ever since. My ratio was 3:1 in favour of Novacyt.
I have been steadily taking out my NCYT profits from April and buying more SNG, especially recently when they were virtually giving these shares away for well under a pound.
My 3:1 ratio has now reversed in favour of SNG.

I realise that NCYT is a brilliant company and will be £15+ by the end of the month, I have lost a huge amount of profit by taking this action.

I am comfortable with this, as I know when news about SNG starts filtering out of the USA and market sentiment gets hold of this, the price will move fast and investors late to this party will be locked out. From recent posts, it appears we are close to that position already.

Experience has taught me that trying to time the market to perfection is impossible, so I made sure I was overweight here before the real action starts, that way I can sleep at night.

NCYT will probably double before summer, but SNG….well, opportunities like this don’t come around too often.
Phase 2 results were top notch, the company have spent millions stockpiling since July and when the co-founder makes public statements saying, ‘This works’ and the man has been recently knighted in recognition of his contribution to respiratory medicine – apart from your own personal nebuliser, what more do you want?

As the saying goes, ‘This train is about to leave the station, don't get left behind’.

Bettingman123 - 09.13

Scroll back to yesterday and the first poster you mention said this drug could be produced for £1 per dose!
The same poster then spent the best part of the day posting negative comments to regular contributors, particularly getting under pmjh's skin at one point.

I quoted £3,000 - using the maximum possible price, as they are using double doses in certain cases of the trial.
£2,000 to save a life sounds cheap to me, as it costs £740+ for admission to A+E and one night stay with no treatment.

I guess this means I can stop spamming the media outlets about SNG now and get a hour a day of my life back!

ATVB

Bigmac12 - Re: your 18.55

I think you are referring to the investor presentation where RM references the Roche acquisition of Intermune for $8billion in 2014 (Anti-fibrosis drug).
As a direct comparison with their drug, He states, 'We have an asset that can provoke some sort of event like this'.

$8 billion as a ball park figure was pre-covid, referring to COPD.

Not a bad figure to start negotiations.

Porky - £100?

Unlikely, but I think although this is an AIM share, I believe it is one of the safest shares to hold going forward in these troubled times.

Lord Mullis has regularly stated he is looking to build a strong mid-cap company, so expect more takeovers this year.

Back in early Spring of last year, a well-informed poster likened NCYT to the path taken by Bioventix – Take a look at their share price now.
Obviously covid has accelerated Novacyt’s progress and will continue to do so as governments fail to deal with the crisis. Your money is safe here, sit back and enjoy the rollercoaster, we’ll get there in due course.

Conventional advice is to hold a basket of FTSE 100 shares, but these are not conventional times. I have no interest in mainstream shares, only minnows with good prospects that will provide good capital gains.
Speaking of which, I see you joined the SNG board – hope you took the plunge!

Both shares are strong buy and holds for me until takeover.

ATVB

samdb - 09.39 -

'The wider application of this for Asthma and COPD means this will get bought by a large pharmaceutical company, in the £3-4bn range.'

£3 -4bn is a fair starting point, but how can anyone accurately put a value on this stock?
1 billion = £5 per share, but:

How do you forecast how many individuals will need this treatment globally over the next 1-2 years?

How do you calculate the savings world healthcare agencies could make from avoiding treatment to 'long covid' patients over several decades?

Will SNG offer compassionate discounts to poorer countries?

How many doses can each country afford this year?

Stockpiling levels?

The answer lies in the figure the board of directors have in mind, no doubt they came up with a value several months ago.

As governments around the world fail to deal with the pandemic successfully, the value of this share will rise, as will your bank balance.

Strong buy and hold until takeover for me.

To emphasise to new/ casual investors what you are looking at here, here’s an extract taken from a weekend post:

Schrow123 – Sunday 10/01/21 @15.32 ‘Gargantuan Opportunity’:

‘I seriously do not understand how PIs cannot grasp the scale of the opportunity here. A global, highly contagious, endemic virus that will be constantly mutating for as long as it exists... and we may have exclusive rights to the best all-round treatment available.’

Scinv - £1?

https://bnf.nice.org.uk/medicinal-forms/interferon-beta.html

I went for my usual 60 minute ‘lockdown’ walk yesterday, this is supposed to increase my sense of wellbeing – It rarely does.
I encountered a total of twelve individuals walking towards me on separate occasions, only one made a token gesture towards social distancing, the rest carried on in a straight line, forcing me into the gutter several times. This happens most days, but I struggle to cope with this behaviour, as I live next to my regional covid hospital, my wife works there and I can tell you first-hand the numbers are not looking good.

The government have given out months of repeated warnings and advice, but if my daily experience is a snapshot of the whole country, very few are currently listening.

If this is the standard of behaviour in the middle of a pandemic, can you imagine how the general public would react if they got a whiff that there was a cure on the horizon. Given the ‘everything now’ culture we now live in, the masses would wrongly assume Synairgen’s treatment would be available to everyone immediately.
There would be a general clamour for a return to ‘normal’ life and most would carry on as if everything was about to return to the situation pre 2020, causing major social upheaval.

The morons who selfishly refuse to adhere to the two metre rule would relish the thought of taking two weeks off work, watching daytime telly repeats, in return for simply wearing a nebuliser once a day.

I’m now thinking that back in April/ May, the government and health agencies guestimated how many of the 68 million UK population may require this treatment in the future and decided that spending £3 a head per vaccination is better than forking out upwards of £3,000 on treatment, walked away from talks and were happy for SNG to partner up with a U.S. pharma.

This is good news for investors, as this ‘maximises shareholder value’, a phrase used more than once by CEO Richard Marsden. Financially, we should be pleased the board have taken this route, as the Americans are now so desperate, they are bending over backwards to fast track SNG to manufacture. It seems SNG have timed this to perfection, as phase 3 interim results will be announced just as the USA numbers begin to move off the scale.
To my mind, EUA is now inevitable.

No doubt when that day comes there will once more be 2,500+ posts to wade through, as we all congratulate each other on our life changing gains, but when the dust has settled, who will speak for the UK dead?

Hanc ock + co have bought themselves time, trying to save cash with their cheaper mass vaccination campaign, but they can’t keep a lid on Synairgen forever and soon some unfortunate minister will have to explain to bereaved relatives why they kept this treatment back. The ‘too small trial size’ excuse just won’t cut it with the general public.

We just need someone, anyone, to ask, ‘Is a single life now worth less than £3,000 in this country and who ultimately made that decision?

Synterferon

CW25 -

Good to hear from you as always, agree with all your comments.

Without your knowledge of the home trial, I shudder to think how your parents would have coped with only oxygen as a solution. It's no exaggeration to say your actions may well have saved their lives, certainly their quality of life going forward.

One day we may find out why Marsden had to belittle himself on You Tube by advertising for candidates for the home trial. Why didn't the gov pull out all the stops regarding publicity etc?

There's a piece of this jigsaw missing don't you think?

Doc -
I take your point in an 'official' sense, surely you agree there's enough 'unofficial' evidence out there now.
Any idea why the company are spending millions stockpiling the drug?

Possibly Synairgen wanted to keep full control of the next stage of development, without any health agency interference. This would tally with the company aiming to ‘maximise shareholder value’ by once again delivering further trial results with accompanying 100% integrity and efficacy.

Maybe the cabinet ministers concerned didn’t like the idea of forking out three grand for the likes of you and me, as we took two weeks off work to recover or maybe they had doubts about bulk manufacturing.

Whatever the reason(s), Marsden and the board appear to have chosen to look across the Atlantic to Dr. Fauci & Co. How incompetent will this government look if they let this drug slip into foreign hands and miss out on enormous political kudos, standing on the side lines as ‘Synterferon’ is unveiled with accompanying stars and stripes?

Sooner or later the truth will have to come out, as some smart journalist will ‘join up the dots’ and start asking politicians the ‘elephant in the room’ questions.

‘So minister, if you’ve known about this treatment since the summer of 2020 and the situation was so desperate back then, why didn’t you take a leap of faith and urge the appropriate GB health authorities to grant Synairgen’s treatment EUA? What did you have to lose? Why have you let thousands of UK citizens die needlessly when you had a viable option on your doorstep? Is an individual life worth less than £3,000?’ Etc, etc….

We would all love to hear the answers, but more importantly, the families of those who have died in the months in between have an absolute right to know, as it is they who have to live with the far reaching consequences of personal bereavement.

Given the limited knowledge we have at our disposal, surely any government but ours would have jumped at the dream scenario of presenting Synairgen’s covid solution to the world. Could you imagine any American or European leader kicking this discovery into the long grass? The current situation beggars belief.

You and I know Synairgen’s treatment works, NHS frontline worker and sadly absent poster WedMEE knows it works, the parents of the excellent poster ‘CW25’ certainly know it works and I suspect certain government officials know too, but still we await a reason as to why we have had to endure months of sustained radio silence.

On the face of it, this health secretary should be shedding real tears for the thousands of unnecessary covid deaths since 20th July, not for some anonymous pensioner’s blind acceptance of a vaccine. I sincerely hope he has some credible reason for not rolling out this treatment sooner.

Helplessly watching this slow tragedy play out week by week from the side lines is truly heart breaking to watch. Home trial and interim ‘looking under the bonnet’ phase 3 results cannot come quickly enough.

FWIW I invested heavily in March, have been strategically adding since and I’m in for the long haul.

Good luck to all LTHs going forward into 2021

As we move into the first full week of 2021, it appears that the clear disconnect that exists between Synairgen and the UK government is set to continue. This has obviously affected the share price since phase 2 results were announced on 20th July.

On the same day the secretary of state for health and social care described Synairgen’s phase 2 results as ‘promising’ in his statement to the house of commons. Since then not one cabinet minister has mentioned the word ‘treatment’ or ‘Synairgen’.

From April 2020 onwards, it became increasingly apparent that government policy was to concentrate wholly and completely on vaccine development. The relentless blanket media coverage that followed was carefully orchestrated to slowly brainwash the nation into meek acceptance of vaccines with limited research.

This came to a carefully choreographed conclusion towards the end of the year, when we had to endure the toe curling sight of the same minister shedding crocodile television tears on the morning the first vaccine was administered saying, ‘It’s moments like this that make you proud to be British’.

The bulk buying of a questionable American vaccine, at the same time making British citizens the guinea pigs of the world does not make me proud to be British.

I would be proud to be British if I saw covid patients walking out of UK hospitals and returning to normal daily life, having received a course of treatment developed and manufactured by a specialist British pharmaceutical company, situated a mere eighty miles from Whitehall.

The simplistic financial comparison trotted out between vaccine (£3) and treatment (£3,000) is largely irrelevant, as a visit to A+E with a minimum three night stay including respiratory treatment costs £3,000+. This basic comparison is rendered even more irrelevant when taking into account the billions lost to the wider economy and also the spiralling cost of treating tens of thousands of patients suffering from ‘long covid’ for decades to come.

To the individual retail investor, the logical course of action from 20th July would have been to concentrate on a combination of both treatment and vaccine, but we still await answers as to why this never happened.

I realise the results from just over 50 phase 2 trial patients is small, but in times of pandemic, surely an emergency wider stage 2(a) trial involving 2/300 patients could and should have been launched with full government expediated ‘no strings attached’ backing. This may have taken, say a month to organise, starting around the 24th August.

This was twenty weeks ago. If Synairgen’s treatment only saved a conservative 500 lives a week, this equates to a minimum of 10,000 lives. This is in addition to the inestimable number of individuals who could have been saved from a lifetime of suffering from ‘long covid’.

So why didn’t this happen? ....cont above

I haven't posted for a while, as I don't like clogging up the board and I think that everything that needs to be said has been mulled over for long enough now - It's just a waiting game now. I think the next set of figures may keep 'Shaun P' busy for a day or two!
Having been here since mid-March, I'd like to thank both the old guard and new recruits for all the excellent research over the year. This board has grown into a mature, almost troll-free site in such a short space of time and is now an excellent read, especially over the weekends - Long may it continue.

I'm pasting this snippet from the excellent poster 'pmjh' from the SNG board this evening for you perusal.

'listening to what the likes of Matt Han**** or Boris Johnson are saying about the vaccine / Covid in general. Their words are not and have never been grounded in reality. To me, they are simply noise. A racket of pots and pans falling down a flight of stairs into a basement of disappointment and broken promises.'

Comment of the month? - Maybe of the year - Certainly gets my vote.

ATVB

pmjh -
'listening to what the likes of Matt Han**** or Boris Johnson are saying about the vaccine / Covid in general. Their words are not and have never been grounded in reality. To me, they are simply noise. A racket of pots and pans falling down a flight of stairs into a basement of disappointment and broken promises.'

This has to be the comment of the month on this board, if not the year for me.

Wading through hundreds of posts a day after a long day running a small business is entirely worth it when coming across gems like this.

May I add my sincere thanks pmjh for all your efforts this year. Losing the poster 'WedMee' earlier this year was a blow, but entirely understandable given the sometimes tacky nature of this board.

I clearly remember yourself and 'Sharesting' batting off a sustained 8 hour troll attack one day in November - A sterling effort. I only wish I had the time to offer my support.

Best wishes to you and all us long-term holders going forward into 2021.

CW - May I add my thanks for sharing, I couldn't be happier for you and your family, such a relief for you all.

Could you e mail our village idiot health secretary and give him the good news as well please. : )

ATVB

This board is sadly descending into the equivalent of a bushtucker trial on ITV’s ‘I’m A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here’.
For those unfamiliar with the show, contestants are first placed into a state of general unease to increase the tension, then they have to wade through hundreds of unsavoury creatures, such as maggots, worms, ****roaches etc until they find the occasional golden star.

Sound familiar?

We’re all still eagerly waiting for one of these creatures to provide evidence Synairgen’s treatment doesn’t work, doesn’t have a market, doesn’t have significant commercial value or even maybe identify a viable competitor with an effective treatment….Still waiting.

I’m no fan of the ‘this is going to the moon soon’ rainbow chasing ‘happy clapper’ type posts, I liked the recently well constructed negative comments regarding the slow handling of the home trial, which could and should have been dealt with better, but on the other hand the incessant garbage spouted by a small minority of posters breaks up decent, relevant threads and clogs up the board. It’s hard to analyse these tactics when scrolling through a full days posts, so I’ve isolated a couple, just so unwary posters can see the gutter conversation they are being sucked into.

Last Sunday evening we were treated to this offering:

.…’When I researched this many months ago, I was under the impression that they simply ordered in some interferon beta that someone else made and chucked it in a nebuliser. They are data guys not drug discovery guys. Am I wrong on this?’….

Later on that evening the poster ‘Alinz’ wasted precious brain cells getting sucked in by replying:

‘Your 'research' has clearly let you down.
Firstly they have applied for a patent for SNG001, the drug they developed. According to wikipedia Synairgen is a University spin-off and public limited company working in drug discovery and biotechnology. It was founded in 2003 by University of Southampton professors Stephen Holgate, Donna Davies and Ratko Djukanovic. The company develops drugs for respiratory diseases including COVID-19.’

I think we’ve hit rock bottom when an individual ignorantly insults a team of emminent scientists by referring to them as ‘data guys’.

On Monday at 16.59 the same individual posted more non-SNG irrelevance and ended with:

….’Honestly don't know who or what to believe any more, I need to take some time out from humanity and civilisation. Good luck all.’

Was that a ‘goodbye’ post? Don’t be silly….

18.31 Starts posting meaningless tripe again.

Probably spent the 1 hour 32 minutes inbetween trying to scoop the moon out of a puddle.

94 irrelevant posts during the last 5 trading days = 19 per day.

Friday eve @21.48 posted ‘Good luck and goodnight’ – 15 minutes later posted again...and again…

I won’t dignify the spammer with a name and I never break the golden rule by responding to them.
I have asked the LSE mediator to remove this individual from the board,

Good evening Van - Re: Your 12.27 - 'Anything gold-related interests me'.

As this is a non-trading day, take a close look at LSE:PUR

I've been invested since April, 'first pour' expected before Christmas, obscenely high grades, easy 'spike' money to be made when the herd arrive shortly, then steady long term gains.
Touted as the next Kirkland Lake - It's easy to see why.

ATVB Trinity.

'....all this money there (they're) making will be spent in accusations.....'

Lets hope they don't spend it all on accusations Dave, best save a bit for acquisitions eh. (Predicitive text?) :)

ATVB

Oxford12 - A fairly quiet morning here so far, so I'll hold off from re-posting yesterday's message for now.
I'd best get some work done now, I'll check back in this evening.

ATVB.