Member Info for Trinityman

My wife tested positive for covid on Saturday morning, obviously I'm a contact.
Since Sunday morning she has received a total of 16 communications 'from test and trace', when only 2 were required - initial result, followed by call/text with advice.
I have received 8 separate text/ calls.
All this duplication is first-hand anecdotal evidence that this system is shambolic and not fit for purpose.

Oxford - Pete knows full well you weren't ramping this as a £40 share, don't give him the oxygen of a reply.

The phase 3 - £40 is clearly a historic example of what can happen given the right circumstances.

Major pharma won't pay the 'going rate' - They always buy at a discount, that's why they end up as 'major'.
Our own individual guesstimates should be halved - This would give a more realistic figure.

In these unique and uncertain times, it is impossible to come up with a truly realistic figure at phase 3.
You can put a value on the COPD element, but not the covid factor.

How can you put a price on a company that holds the worldwide patent for a treatment that could potentially bring the world back to the position it was in a year ago?

When I originally invested in March I had a figure of £7.50 in mind.
World leaders have collectively managed the pandemic so poorly that this figure looks too conservative now.

I have been so angry with this government’s dithering response to the covid situation in general and Synairgen’s obviously effective treatment in particular, yesterday I spent two hours composing a document for the labour press to basically copy and paste into their rags this week, in order to raise the profile of SNG to the general public. I had contact details for national, regional and local papers and was ready to hit the ‘send’ button this afternoon.

After careful consideration, I have decided to shelve this idea due to two excellent posts on this board over the weekend.
‘SidM’ at 12.00 today advised that falling into bed with the government would come at a price and with strings attached, hinting that the company would lose control and independence. This would also reduce profits and keep a lid on the share price.

Here’s a quote ‘I don't think the board would want the government to swoop in at the last moment with conditions that would have restricted the company whilst no doubt spinning to the media that they had saved the company. Would totally undermine the hard work of Prof Holgate and others. Do we really want the funding of the government?’

Yesterday we had this from ‘Oxford 12’ at 09.22:

‘I like to go back to what value is in RM’s head as he is the one negotiating. The only clue we have is the Shares magazine presentation he did in 2016. He cited other biotech takeovers and how the value increased with successful stage of development.

Phase 1 - buyout for $225m
Phase 2 - buyout $1.25bn
Phase 3 - a 2014 Roche buyout for $8bn

So we are potentially benchmarking at p2 now at £6 a share. With successful phase 3, we could be up to £40 a share.’

These are very valid points, so I’ll put my concerns to one side for now and watch Richard Marsden’s grand plan unfold over the coming weeks.

As an individual living in this board’s daily SNG bubble, it’s not easy sitting on the fence watching the daily death toll rise due to government incompetence, knowing full well there is an effective treatment sitting on the shelves that could stop all this suffering.
Watching the daily drivel ministers and advisers feed us on a daily basis makes me want to scream at the telly and my knee-jerk reaction is to feed the whole Synairgen story to the press, but for now I guess I’ll have to bite my tongue and allow events to unfold.

Here’s hoping the fast-tracking discussed on here this week will have the desired effect, sooner rather than later.

If any posters are wondering why we are in this dire position, reading ‘Why We Get The Wrong Politicians’ by Isobel Hardman is a good place to start.

Holgate/ Marsden instead of Han**** anyone?

Link posted this morning over on the SNG page - Momentum is building as awareness grows.

https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/the-rise-of-covid-stocks-big-likely-winners-revealed/

You arrive at the covid testing station, the attendant offers you a choice of three tests.

“Would you like test one, it was manufactured in China and is 80% accurate, or how about test number two, which is made in Europe but is only 75% reliable, or you could take option three, which has been labelled ‘gold standard’, is manufactured in the UK and also sells to 130 countries, as it is 99.8% reliable and has been since January of this year.”

Obviously this conversation will never happen, as you will only be offered one of a variety of tests available, depending on your postcode.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to exclusively use the testing company with the longest and best track record in reliability and quality that can now offer a complete range of tests for differing environments and settings?

This would make national, regional and local covid statistics more uniform and accurate, leading to better use of resources and outcomes for patients.
One company, one set of genuine results, only offering new contracts to rival testing companies that can consistently come up with matching efficacy and production numbers, sorting the wheat from the chaff.

A rational businessman with a reasonable level of intellect would surely come to that conclusion, but sadly that is not the case. If you’re well connected you can sell any old tat to the NHS, no questions asked (or answered).

This government are playing with your lives (and lungs), so don’t expect to see them rushing to sign on the dotted line where Novacyt are concerned. Novacyt don’t receive any favours, their contracts will be hard won in an honest fashion.

Maybe Graham Mullis should have offered a non-executive directorship to one of the junior health ministers at the start of the year or maybe used some of his company profits to push a donation in the right direction.

This stalling of awarding contracts is now becoming embarrassing. Care homes, airports, high-rise office blocks etc should already have been using Novacyt tests, but we still have to suffer the mish-mash of the ‘postcode lottery’ testing stations as we enter the next critical phase, as covid takes hold once more into the Autumn/ Winter seasons.

If you want another example of how this government operate, take a look at this snippet from a blog post taken from another LSE share page.
‘Dido Harding, head of the government’s recently created ‘test and trace’ system, said test and trace would be ‘local by default’ and be ‘highly efficient’.
She then handed £12bn to Serco, which is highly efficient in charging us £7360 per day for consultants to trace covid infections, which they aren’t doing.
Serco’s CEO is the brother of an ex-tory MP, his partner is a tory donor. Serco’s ex-head of PR is now a tory health minister.
If you feel all this is a bit corrupt, you can complain to the govt’s anti-corruption champion, John Penrose, who is married to Dido Harding.’

Need I say more?

‘Test and Trace’ Should be

Kamakiriad - With that sort of profit you should probably leave the party at £15, then you will probably have enough money to buy the house next door to Don Fagen, one of my all-time musical heroes. I'm not far behind you, so I'll stay until it hits £17, then I'm investing elsewhere.
ATVB and well done to you for keeping the faith with the rest of us lthers

2 Of 2

I see one of them is now over on the SYME board telling them he has shorted their share and that they only have a 50/50 chance of success (not true).
Spending precious spare time scouting for struggling shares and baiting distressed shareholders remotely from behind a keyboard is the clearest sign of a sad, and very shallow personality.

As a straight talking Yorkshireman, I liked the direct approach taken by the poster ‘Wildfire’ on Tuesday morning:

08.37
‘So, here's a company (on AIM) with a mc of circa. £530m with sales of circa £400m from the UK government (for starters) and people don't see the value? Nutters.’

08.48
‘Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Yes, we would have loved to have sold at 950p and bought back at these prices. But this share has had plenty of those moments, believe me. And there are plenty of people who sold at 100p, 200p and 300p because they listened to the tripe on these boards. The SP is not the story. The Market Cap is the story. Sell now and rue the day, like those who sold at 100p, 200p and 300p. There will be volatility along the way. Fine if you want to trade it, but most of us either can’t sit watching the SP all day long, or don’t have the right tools. I’m staying put for a very happy Christmas.’

Direct and to the point - ‘Poster of the week’ for me.

We’re on the cusp of more serious gains on the run up to Christmas, so trust in the fundamentals and the m/cap and ignore the daily antics on here.

You know you’re onto a winner when the CEO stated in an RNS over the winter that he was ‘too busy’ to talk to investors and turned them away. When the board of directors of a small cap pharma turns away major investors in the middle of a global crisis, you know they are intent on building a company and not after a takeover. Make no mistake, this is going to be the next ‘Bioventix’ (Look up their story and current share price).

Sell now and you will be rich, sell next year and you will be wealthy – which do you prefer?

1 Of 2

I rarely post, but scan this board every evening, having invested heavily back in March just as the price drifted over 100p – Still holding.

I have delved into many LSE AIM boards over the lockdown period and I am always struck by their similarities. They all have rampers, de-rampers, shorters, persisent detractors, wild optimists, an institutional seller lowering the price, a placement, director sells, along with the Winnifriths, McNultys, Zak Mirs and of course, your favourite and mine – the disgraceful and shameful actions of the MM’s.

In March I decided to ignore all of the above and concentrate only on the fundamentals that led me to hit the ‘buy’ button in the first instance, as fundamentals will always win out over everything else in the long run. I firmly believe that having the investing timeframe of a goldfish and flapping about on an hourly basis between ten different covid stocks is the road to financial and personal ruin.

The ‘everything now’ culture that has become fashionable over the last few years has now spilled onto these boards and is having a pervasive effect on the new, inexperienced investors attracted by the ‘fast money’ and this is now reflected in many of the daily daily posts here, when all that is required here is one simple ‘buy and hold’.

Having said that, there have been some excellent posters on this board this year. It has been interesting to see the admirable poster ‘Bramley 1967’ moving from an initially nervous investor, wondering if he’d ‘done the right thing’ (I remember exchanging posts in the Spring suggesting a long term hold) to one of the more confident senior posters on here.

My faith in human nature has recently been restored by the poster ‘Shaun P’, who has selflessly put his professional accounting experience to work freely on our behalf, by producing his regularly updated spreadsheet analysis. Rarely have I seen such a display of integrity and professionalism shown on a discussion board. I for one am extremely grateful for his dedicated input, long may it continue.

Also it was sad to see the loss of regular imput from the excellent poster GGGG21, who now only drops in occasionally. Unfortunate to see a poster of his standing having to deal with yet another sad keyboard warrior today – I wonder if he’s considered upgrading to 5G? :)

I note that the two individuals who tried to wear shareholders down with their constant ‘drip – drip’ scare tactics over the summer never had the backbone or strength of character to return and admit they’d backed the wrong horse (I won’t dignify them with a name check). It never ceases to amaze me when posters give them the oxygen of a reply and engage in their tedious daily drivel.

Continued above....

Thanks for the typo correction Super AL!

ATVB

I have a question for you.

How do you price a share that can:
A - Save countless lives and stop millions from enduring long-term respiratory problems?
B – Take the strain off healthcare systems on a global scale?
C - Ease political pressure on policitians around the world?
D - Allow developed economies to return to some form of normality?

No broker forecast can offer an accurate forecast on this share – This is truly a once in a lifetime opportunity for shareholders of SNG.

Before the now famous ‘magic Monday’ spike, I made the decision to sell a large tranche of my shares in Novacyt and triple my investment here – I now have 60% of my portfolio in these shares and I’m unusually comfortable with that. I don’t always get it right (SXX – Ouch) but this was one of my better decisions.
I’m happy to lose the profits that I could have gained in NCYT, as I know the profits here will easily dwarf those of Novacyt and that is really saying something.

I bought my first shares in March (56p) when I researched and understood the science and I bought more as the price went down, knowing full well that, as is usually the case, there would be little chance of a vaccine.
The ups and downs of the rollercoaster that is AIM don’t worry me, as I trust in the fundamentals.
The fundamentals of SXX grow stronger by the day, as world leaders struggle and fail to balance their economic and healthcare decisions. As the global situation worsens, the board of directors at Synairgen can name their price, as this dreadful virus regains it’s grip on society.

Remember, Richard Marsden publicly stated that he would ‘maximise shareholder value’ during his negotiations, whether that entails a takeover, joint venture, or manufacture by licence.

In the coming days and weeks the market makers will make frequent attempts to prise these shares out of your portfolios and into institutional hands, by artificially lowering the price from time to time. If you have automatic stop losses, cancel them and switch to manual, so the mms can’t see them.

To those recently arrived investors, extend your investment timeframe to months, not weeks and don’t let the naysayers on here sway your judgement, remember why you hit the ‘buy’ button in the first place and stick to your plan.
Pay close attention to the information provided by the two posters ‘pmjh’ and ‘WedMe’, their selfless efforts to provide accurate information is priceless. Many thanks for your contributions, your enthusiasm and excitement almost leaps off the screen when I read your posts. I believe your work will be done by the end of this financial year, when you will reap your much deserved rewards.

Remember, we haven’t brought ‘investor sentiment’ or 'momentum' into the equation yet. When the press are all over the phase three trial results, who knows where we will end up?

Sell now and you will make good money, sell next year and you will be wealthy – Which do you prefer?

Thanks to all posters who replied to my earlier post offering varied views today - much appreciated.

I posted the link as a heads-up, in case the market turns sharply as predicted. I realise this share is contrarian and has sound fundamentals, but when panic sets in many investors tend to sell everything and only return to the market when conditions improve.
This could give canny investors a chance to invest at a lower price, but timing exit and entry points is never easy in choppy waters.
I'm hoping for a steady rise on the run up to the AGM and hope nothing hits the fan before then. Please keep a close eye on events across the pond as we approach the end of the month.
ATVB. T

I rarely post, my last being back in April. I only post when there is something worthwhile to share, although I read this board most days.

I thought twice before posting this, as I am not alarmist, but thought it would be wrong to sit on this information, especially if events unfold as predicted.

Take a close look at the report on the link below, with the AGM coming up and plenty of good news around the corner this is not what we need right now.
The link was provided from a credible source – Andrew Craig at ‘Plain English Finance’.

I note the usual antics presently taking place on this board once more, but would stress that I am not a de-ramper or new investor looking for an entry point at a lower price.

In March I bought the following three stocks and have added consistently, my portfolio currently consists of only the same three stocks: SNG/ NCYT/ PUR and I hold no cash.

Considered thoughts and opinions only please from the more discerning weekend readers.

https://mechelanyadvisors.com/currency-monitor/time-bomb/

(If the link doesn’t work or has been removed, go to ‘mechelanyadvisors.com’ and scroll down to the article titled ‘time bomb’ on the home page).

Thanks to all for the kind replies and best of luck going forward!

The uncoming COPD results will unlock the true core value of this share and will be the culmination of fifteen years dedicated research by a talented team of scientists, many whose names will never be published. The public face is always Richard Marsden, only a month ago this board had several posters complaining about Marsden’s body language on the latest You Tube video and also in the delay in results. We don’t seem to hear from those posters now – funny that.

It should have been quite obvious to anyone involved in pharma stocks that most of these directors are much more comfortable in a lab environment than when faced with the glare of cameras. In SNG’s case, this is the pinnacle of their careers, after all these years they focus on the integrity of their results and don’t pander to inpatient investors who seem to have the investing life span of a goldfish. Do the doubters really think men and women of this calibre would waste their careers on something that didn’t work?
Before this board goes mental again (2,500 posts in one day) I tip my hat to the handful of regulars that kept returning to the detail in the company research documents, in order to keep the waverers on the straight and narrow. Well done and respect go to the likes of Sharesting, Ghia and Nolupus - three original posters that have stayed on to see this fantastic project through to the end, as will I.

As a long-term asthma sufferer, I ‘got’ the science straight away and never doubted the outcome, it’s just logic and makes complete sense if you take the time to read it – That’s why I invested heavily in March and haven’t sold a single share since.

This is and always was a COPD stock, COVID just affected the timeline. There is no gamble here, just a process to be completed. I understand profit taking as a concept, but why anyone has already sold these shares already is beyond me.
I doubled my investment last week, I couldn’t believe I could still buy a large tranche for 190p, it felt like stealing. Equally, why would posters show their lack of class by boasting about how much money they have made when many, many more will be quietly banking much larger sums without being smug on a bulletin board full of complete strangers. Anyone doing this in the real world, say in a pub, would have been flattened and the telling thing is no one would reach out a helping hand – No one likes a show off, especially a rich one and in the virtual world there is no proof of profit.

Marsden could hardly keep the smile off his face in his recent interview when he said, ‘This is our time’. I’d love to know how the directors place a value on this drug going forward, they certainly have the ‘whip hand’ in current negotiations.

Investing gurus always say you should always have an exit point before pressing the ‘buy’ button. My initial exit point back in March was £7.50, what do you think?

Whatever the outcome, you can be certain that this August 'will be our time'.

ATVB.

I rarely comment on this board, although I have scanned these pages every day since February.
In the second week of March I invested 40% of my portfolio in SNG.
Back then this board had around 20-25 posts per day that mainly consisted of backbiting, bickering and those that doubted the science behind the research – Believe me it was a bleak spring on here.

In my last post in April I listed the top ten major Global pharmas and suggested the best way forward both morally and financially would be to offer manufacturing licences to all ten companies on an annual basis. This would allow more of the global population access to the treatment and would also offer maximum profit to shareholders.
It would seem the directors have chosen this route to some extent, as they are currently talking to a ‘cluster’ of pharmas. A gaggle of geese… a cluster of pharmas – has a nice ring to it, don’t you think?

Despite the recent stellar rise in the share price I still firmly believe that the true value of this share has yet to be realised. Take a look at the following sets of stats:

Around 2% of the whole population – 4.5% of all people aged over 40 – live with diagnosed COPD. Our research also suggests that prevalence is growing. The number of people who have ever had a diagnosis of COPD has increased by 27% in the last decade, from under 1,600 to nearly 2,000 per 100,000.
https://statistics.blf.org.uk/copd

The Global Burden of Disease Study reports a prevalence of 251 million cases of COPD globally in 2016.
Globally, it is estimated that 3.17 million deaths were caused by the disease in 2015, that is, 5% of all deaths globally in that year.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease-(copd)#:~:text=The%20Global%20Burden%20of%20Disease,in%20low%20and%20middleincome%20countries.

Many investors reading this won’t even be able to tell you what the letters COPD stand for, let alone describe the condition. Most of the newly arrived contributors are here for the COVID action - nothing wrong with that.

Covid gets all the headlines, while COPD quietly goes on killing year after year. Covid will eventually be brought under control, as it is a virus. COPD is a ‘condition’, so there can be no cure as such, the symptoms can only be partially brought under control by medication, in order to increase quailty of life.
In monetary terms, COVID will provide a big injection of transient cash to this stock, whereas COPD will provide an even bigger recurring income stream.
The major pharmas know this, which is why there is a ‘cluster’ of them talking terms with the board of directors.

(Continued above)

I bought a decent chunk of these around springtime when I researched who was looking to takeover and I must say they were very hard to buy back then, took quite some time to get a quote for the amount I wanted.
Difficult to believe the prospective owners won't pass due dilligence, then we should see some fast moving price action.
A decision can't be far away now, then it will be champagne or cyanide!

At this point in the life of an AIM share we usually have to listen to the rubbish from kids fresh out of uni with their economics degrees telling us that shorting is a useful tool to pull back a share to a more realistic level that has got ahead of itself recently, that’s garbage.

I agree at £5.17 this was overcooked and due a correction of sorts, nothing goes up in a straight line blah, blah, but what’s happening here is price distortion by those who have no interest whatsoever in the fundamentals of Novacyt. The people involved probably don’t even know the name of the CEO or what we’re selling, they’re just manipulators.

Shorting should be banned, as it distorts true value and is used purely as a vehicle to make money on the way down and back up again.
While I’m in ranting mood, chartists should be also banned. Charting is modern day witchcraft and they should be burned at the stake along with the shorters, preferably with red and green candles to prove a point and they should also have a doji carved on their gravestones to warn real humans to keep away.

Taking this all the way down to £2.17 last week to fill a mystical gap on a chart when we have an order book that is the envy of most AIM companies is so frustrating for most fundamental investors.
One of these luminaries informed us over the weekend that there is another unfilled gap somewhere around £1.28 and then went onto say that we may see another downward trend or, on the other hand, we may retrace back up to the original position. Don’t you just love these people, they basically said, ‘next week this will either go up or down’ – Thanks for that, hanging on your every word (not).

So what about this share and it’s fundamentals? Do you really need to consult the charts when you hear the CEO publicly state that he has turned away potential investors because he was too busy building his company in the middle of a recession?
He’s got a market leading product already selling by the millions, new products coming on stream, debt free, cash in the bank and is months ahead of the pack. What more do you want?

The best piece of advice on here over the weekend came from a poster with the line, ‘Don’t look at the share price, look at the m/cap’. I couldn’t agree more.

For the record, I raided the tea caddy and looked down the back of my sofa for more funds this morning, as I am holding mid/long term and increasing my position in this stock.

Wouldn’t you just love another intra day RNS. Come on Graham, burn them to death this afternoon, we’re waiting.

The tumbleweed is blowing across the board this weekend, I doubt it will be this quiet at the end of the month. In Wu we trust! ATVB

My first post on here, I invested two weeks ago when I saw who was involved.
Bruno Wu - savvy billionaire - knows a thing or two to say the least.
Can't believe how quiet it is on this board - Only two posts today - Where is everyone?
Am I missing something or have I got in before the herd for once?
This looks way, way undervalued at present or have I bought a unicorn?

Bramley - Your 15.57 is the classic shareholder dilemma - The answer lies in the old adage, 'It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market'.

Trying to sell at the top and buy at the bottom all the time leads to blood pressure tablets and an early grave, so 'buy and hold' until your target price is reached, accept you won't make as much as the pro traders and enjoy the warm weather while you can. Sitting in front of a screen day after day is no fun!

ATVB