Member Info for Trickymatters

Watching BBC news 24. The whole conversation is about testing, for lfts in the Northern towns affected by the Indian variant, for PCRs to travel in EU countries. We can't really afford not to carry on with the roadmap. Our national debt and defecit if off the scale. The vaccine means hospitals are protected now. Time to learn to live with covid, managing risk with regular testing. As soon as that contract lands we are starting the journey to £2.00.

Jay Hayes, read the papers, don't guess. Bitcoin is down 40% this year. The BoEngland has warned 'if you want to lose all your money, buy Bitcoin. It has no intrinsic value whatsoever '. Blockchain may play a part in banking in the future, not Bitcoin. And get ready for Elon Musk to dump his entire holding now that he's suddenly realised that it uses more electricity than the annual consumption of Holland to mine it.
The whole market is down. Take a look. Every market, down. Inflation worries.
Matt Han**** is on TV tonight. He might say nowt. He might say we should be taking lfts twice week with a PCR to confirm positive status.
GLA.

The margin of 18% only applies to the context of repayment for a small loan in phase 1 to be precise. That is the threshold after which the loan repayment can be taken. Otherwise the margin is 50% assuming a pricing policy which recognised £5 a test from the investor presentation last year. Things have moved on. Innova are thought to have received between £7 and £10 a test. Costs of manufacture reduce at larger scale they don't increase! And the equipment has been loaned without charge so base costs may well have reduced. We will have to wait and see but we Don have to assume derampers/traders assumptions for goodness sake!

Quite encouraging. Stage completed and dossier review in process. Much further ahead than some of the others and nowhere near as many PCR tests even under consideration compared to other assessment processes. Blimey. Never thought I would be saying thx for sharing Jay Hayes but I am. Though it does amaze me that you can see only 16 PCRs in the pipeline for World Health Organisation approval, with Genedrive having completed one out of 2 stages of assessment (which some others have failed) in a pandemic with new variants and the fastest rising number of cases for much of the world, and you are invested in a fast to make, fast to process test works with all variants, with a big pharma partner for sales and distribution, as a negative! Hey ho. I guess there's glass half full and glass half empty people in the world. Thx again for sharing anyway.

Trust Serpico, yeah. I have a couple of links to tenders - one for packaging 2.4 million a week and 1 for all sorts of general HR services for test and trace over 4 years. Will share when I have finished buying. Sorry to be selfish. But not really my problem at this stage if folk are buying into the nonsense from our trolls this close to action city. I think I have done my bit tbh in terms of sharing and supporting. So give me an hour or so.
GLA investors.

Johnson is urging us all to 'play our part by taking lateral flow tests twice a week ' in this morning's Guardian. In the meantime the JCVI committee are recognising surge vaccs and surge testing must be deployed to try to suppress the spread of the new Indian variant. A new tender is published today for packaging hundreds of millions of tests for years ahead.
GLA.

I think it's Thermo Fisher.

Well Guy, I have made a very decent return on GDR so far having bought low and sold high. That old trick. And now I am in again a little under water. But I am confident it will come good/ very good. If I wasn't I would sell. I wouldn't sit around bleating like an injured sheep day in day out.
So maybe it's you who needs to hang up your investment clogs. They are made for grown ups.
It isn't about ramping. What we want a board for is to share information which can inform our decisions for the short, medium or long-term. Everyone has indulged you for a long time. But you are becoming one boring bustard now.

No you aren't singlehandedly keeping the sp down. The whole market, not just covid stocks, has been hit this week. US inflation is building and a risk off started with tech stocks and has spread to every market. EU stocks are recovering a bit today. You would know this if you read the papers instead of banging on like a bunch of loons numerous times a day. And yes. It does affect confidence. I would have bought more by now if it weren't for your bad advertising. Even Maestro has stopped being a ********. But you lot are still here posting crap, multiple times a day.

Jaceorge, interesting when you sold your shares it suddenly went up! Were you constantly undermining that investment too on a daily basis? I wish you and Jay and Guy would sell up tbh. Might be good for the rest of us.

Great find Sandy. So the scientists heading up Activ2 are saying recruitment will be completed within 2 weeks and then they will roll straight into phase 3 for Activ2. They are excited about the potential for home use- saving on health costs and reducing pressure on hospitals. The enrolment target is 120 people all of whom will have mild covid. So a much better sample size than the early report for home trials. That's something to look forward to. We should have results for phase 3 Activ2 before the hospital trials then.

Anyone got any idea when the ACTIV2 trial evaluation is due? Patient dosing started in February 2021 so it should be the end of this month going by the timelines for the other trials shouldn't it?

Guess what? This is affecting ODX too. Very temporary. And as soon as news hits or the press runs a story that ODX has bagged the £374 million contract the sp will gap up and it may as well not have happened. I see the old man JAdam is still offering his nonsensical words of wisdom in between whiping the spittle from his cheeks. Once the news lands iis will be buying all day long. They will pay the market price like everyone else. I am not buying atm. It could well get a bit worse before it gets better imho. I will probably have a little last fandango of a decent buy before the end of next week- so knock yourself out old fella. Someone might believe you. Lol.
GLA investors.

100,000 treatments per month x 12 x £1,000 profit (treatment cost estimates reported by the BBC were £2k, just checked) will easily lead to a £2 billion valuation mid term. The broker says £5 sp forecast near term.
Fabulous RNS. Consistent, positive results, on time and on track for phase 3 trials. This will end up with the best returns from any covid play from current baselines. And I am in a few.
Unbelievable that a couple of posters are trying to undermine this. Absolute no brainer.

Does anyone know what the price for treatments are projected to be? I have read a number of estimates from £1-3k. And the cost of delivery for home trials and hospital treatment?

Read the news summary of the press conference. 1.3 million tests a day are currently being carried out. The precautions being referenced include regular testing. Specifically Johnson said school children and their families and FE and university students can mix as they please whilst taking twice weekly tests. Why do people bother lying? Half of us watched it. Both Johnson and Whitty referenced getting tested regularly. It wasn't a conference about our investment. It's there to emphasise the next steps for the roadmap.
I am clocking off. Too many green boxes and I notice a couple of new variants today banging on about some fabricated nonsense attacking Nicola Sturgeon today. Hey ho. We're nearly there. These undermining tactics are desperate moves. Mostly the usual shameless charlatans I expect. GLA investors.

Satellite, annual results? Do you mean end of year accounts etc? Or the phase 3 trial results? The latter is due to complete on June 1st though the report associated could come much later.
Someone asked about the end of year trading results last week and the response was any time this month. I will check the website. Would be useful to know.

Read the contract. The 18% margin is the threshold required before the government can start taking back a loan it has made for 'pre-production' activity in 'phase 1'. From February to April 2021. It looks like tech transfer for someone's test has already started. There's no 18% margin otherwise. What industry average? Where did you get that from? As has been discussed we were advised last year that we would be looking at 50% margins for the ABC19 test and the Mologic antigen lft. Assumptions at the time were for lower sales prices than what has been paid since to other companies- Surescreen and Innova, and for lower volumes. So margin should be higher than 50% if anything.

Js1990, yes Surescreen has been validated. We could be manufacturing for them theoretically. Perhaps unlikely. If they were part of the 'collaboration ' we could have already started work on their test but we have not been notified of that. It seems like we have been waiting for a new test to be validated. We are guessing obvs.
I agree with Regulator. Why would Avacta not be required to go through the agreed validation process? These regulations are part of the competitive environment. It would open the government to serious legal challenges if they were exempted. The Avacta test is some way off from validation in all likelihood. Though their CEO is certainly claiming that they will get authorised for commercial sales within days. Won't be holding my breath on that.
I think ODX could be producing more than one test for the government over time though.
The costs we were given at the investors presentation assumed a 50% margin for Mologic's test based on a sale price (for ODX to the government, not a retail cost) of around £5.00. Innova have received much more than that subsequently. Core costs won't go up if the sale price goes up will they? If anything, higher volumes means core costs will reduce proportionately.

My expectation. Around £2.50 in the days following the contract confirmation. Assumptions: £374 million contract for 50 million tests at £7.30 per test (approximate pricing policy for Innova). Gross profit margin £4.75. Based on core costs from investors presentation. Pe 2.8, NCYT average PE in the first few weeks after confirmed orders. It was higher and has fallen lower for NCYT. Due to perceived longitudinal value changing from first mover advantage to a lower competitive opportunity as new credible players joined the market.
Does not consider ABC19 test and the other 50 million capacity. Which will also materialise at some point. The market may assume further growth accordingly in the short term or it might wait and see.
In fact we can all do the maths as soon as the contract drops. Yikes! Looks like we are nearly there.