Member Info for Trickymatters

Nothing wrong with the PR. There's regular local coverage from all over the country. We've been on Sky tv twice, BBC and LBC radio.

DJ, I agree they've not been good. Although calling it a ****show is quite a political thing to say- lol.
Classic Tories I'm afraid handing out all those contracts to their mates- disappointing. But being balanced, it's unprecedented. They've panicked. Who wouldn't? We're a crowded island so it's harder for us than some countries. At least we didn't do a Sweden on it. I do think they have a plan. Johnson has been consistent about wanting a world beating system. I think he's a bit of a mess on many levels (only my personal opinion) but he's a shrewd enough politician. He wants to stay in and I have a strong feeling he will play a blinder as soon as he can reasonably do so. The dosh is set up and ready in the system. I found another article today where scientists are saying we'll have 1-3 years immunity in all likelihood but they want an evidence base. If they wait 1-3 years to get that they are risking everything. At some point very soon they have to go with what the science does say in the here and now and work with the balance of probability. If they explain that to people we will pretty much understand surely?
I think ODX have played a blinder too. They've committed to a relatively small number for the RTC in terms of their capacity. There is certainly room for manoeuvre on pricing when you see the price of some of the other tests, once the larger orders come in which I think they will.
Either way we also have antigen tests and lab based PCRs so all systems go.

I've had a read. Doesn't specifically say anything about antibody tests. It says the r rate is increasing to 0.8. A new Cambridge university report says the r rate is 1 in London and the north west. A lot more asymptomatic cases. I think they are under so much pressure now. Did anyone else notice we have a new Joint Biosecurity centre to take over directing cv 19 policy?
I think the government are under such pressure now I can see them just releasing the small verification study of the RTC- only 2000 participants. It will be completed any time- bearing in mind REACT 1 pt 2 was 150000 people and took 5 weeks from end of trial to publication. Sorry but I can't find a proper schedule of works. It just says they will be published in the 'Summer'.
I think they will make the order as soon as we get verification and justify it for prevalence to begin with. Then when the immunity study comes in they will go large in some way. We are also buying for other poorer countries within our general strategy.
Labour are going to be in a tricky place sadly, from my point of view. The government are going to pull a lot of rabbits out of a hat and Labour are going to be left with nothing to say. Mass testing with the world's best test is what they will deliver in the coming weeks imho.

ReACT 1 part 1 took 6 weeks and 3 days for the report to be published (17th July) from end of trial Part 2 has taken 5 weeks. Expect REACT 2 with the crucial antibody test data analysis and assessment of immunity to drop early too. I am going to have a read now.

Scott Morrison has announced a mega- investment in cybersecurity last week and added to it today. Check out the Guardian Australia. ECSC have part of it's operations over there to enable 24 hour coverage.

Macca, intolerance is spelt with one l. Please don't start posting mad conspiracy theories on this board. We have a pretty great standard of discussion here and we share our research regarding issues related to our investment, for the most part. Thanks.

Benyon, £400 million market cap in the next couple of months sounds plausible to me. But we can do 2 million a week. They can vary production across the 5 tests according to demand. Have you read the investor presentation? Once they have that kind of credibility they will keep doing new things in diagnostics. They are also in a diagnostic space for serious food allergies like IBS and in the new generation of HIV tests.

David Navarro from WHO says we want to get to a situation where we are ahead of the virus with testing. So it's good if we are getting more cases detected where people are not getting seriously ill ( the premise of this part of the program- do tests give good results/ false negatives and false positives) but we know that they have had cv19. Both guests (also included a local clinician) said we want to get our economy and society back on track. Interesting that there's that medical consensus on show for more tests with an emphasis on the purpose of supporting confidence towards re-engagement. Let's hope we get a sensible and up to date consideration of antibody tests and the role they play very soon. The local doctor was emphasising the difficult health impact of lockdown. I sometimes feel like the constant media focus on deaths and impending disaster is not necessarily very good for animal spirits, encouraging investment. Too much of a downer. If the narrative starts to get more about the idea that we can live with this if we use all the tools we are developing it's so much more encouraging.

REACT 1 for June surveillance of prevalence is due anytime. The surveillance conducted for May was published July 17th. They will probably use the same format and methodology so in my experience the second one might be produced a bit faster. REACT 2 is in 2 parts. One is comparing antibody tests and the other is investigating issues around immunity and capability of carrying infection for recovered asymptomatic cases. The international evidence base is looking very good for us in these respects. Leaked reports already suggest we have the gold standard test as we all know. REACT 2 started in July. The Ulster university assessment to confirm validation for MHRA and on behalf of PHE is much smaller, only 2000 people. All dropping anytime. These are the issues that introduced uncertainty for us. I think we will make a big leap immediately any of the REACT 2 or the smaller verification assessment drops. Very exciting. Starting our journey in a serious way. Not too late to buy in.

Apex, ODX can do 100 million tests a year. It will be spread across the portfolio. The RTC test is the cheapest. There's a new saliva antigen poc coming out too. That will be massive imho. You are right obvs- demand for relatively low cost, high quality, accessible tests where results can be immediately shared will be off the Richter scale. We will have to license the product to enable more production. The manufacturing spec will be part of that imho so higher profitability. As the broker has acknowledged their assessment forecasts cannot necessarily appreciate the opportunity in these unprecedented and phenomenal circumstances.

Like your style sharemonkey! Would be g8 to get some more news coverage going this week.

The RTC will share IP for the end product. Will try not to laugh if the US try to buy up all the spare capacity before Johnson commits to anything other than using it as a research tool. Though I don't think that would happen. I think we will have a humongous UK order pretty soon. #trade wars ;)

Abingdon bought Forsite in 2012 (as I recall it was 2012).

US trade mark accepted and awaiting examination! Nice share Gazza- hot off the press too!

Found an article about Manchester Metropolitan university who were the Northern partner for REACT 2 looking at the performance of tests. It says the active part of the trial (comparing antibody tests with a view to finding the best) was scheduled to finished mid July. Tests were sent to Imperial college for assessment.
Then we had the leak in the Telegraph saying the RTC had passed in line with manufacturers claim ('passed with flying colours'). So we know what the outcome of REACT 2 will be. Due anytime. SAGE now advising government that antibodies will confer immunity according to the 'i' yesterday and today. So we know what that study will say too. These are the only perceived uncertainties. Our pension funds won't come in until those reports are in. They must show high levels of due diligence. We will all outperform our own pension funds. No worries.

Remember this? Published 17th July. The trial took place in June. Part of Imperial college's REACT studies, commissioned by government. REACT 1 part 1 took 6 weeks from the trial close to produce the published summary of the report. This trial took place in June according to this coverage, originally leaked to the Telegraph. It was testing the veracity of different kits. So might not be as much data to assess as REACT 1 which is looking at prevalence and demographics. So it could drop anytime. The study on immunity is also running now. A smaller study with health workers. We already know it's going to be good for ODX. Keep it together people. Not long before this goes bombastic, boomtastic, boyakasha baby ;)

Front page news today on the 'i'. Great rag.

What's this then? Final couple of days of a tree shake? Mms trying to get rid of the little guys. As was clear from the emerging scientific consensus internationally SAGE are now advising if we've had it we'll have immunity for a good while at least. REACT 2 is looking at this with health workers. Last chance for a cheap top up before it blows. Get raiding those piggy banks people;)

I've been keeping an eye on Imperial college's site for results of the cv19 research on prevalence, antibody immunity and ease of use for home tests. The results of REACT 1 just focus on prevalence and demography for May. It shows a reduction in the R rate, as would be expected in lockdown. They are re-running that study for June and writing it up now. REACT 2 is looking at health workers and is much smaller. That is the start of assessing immunity - people who are extremely likely to have been double exposed- which they have already established in React 1. It found health workers and care workers were 8 times and 17 times more likely to get it than the rest of us. Interesting that the government are back to buying without independent evaluation. I think they are feeling desperate to avoid a second wave. If these studies come back good- they could drop within days, they are going to make a massive order imho. If the UK government claims they have the best antibody test in the world so far the WHO are going to have everything Mologic are doing to the front of the queue. As are the US. India, Brazil, the EU. I think we will have to make arrangements for licensing. I notice the costs are going up for the competition. ODX have a massive advantage there and room for a more ambitious pricing policy. Trade away- at your peril! Lol. Bit of patience guys and gals. MB has put the sweat into profit and revenues and commensurate sp. Add in the factor of credibility for a best in class, accessible, affordable, high demand product which is life saving/ economy saving strategically and we will see where it takes us. No vaccine for HIV or malaria. We humans will find a way. This is part of it. ODX investors will be laughing soon. Sun is shining. We all made a good decision.

Just saying. Within a couple of weeks those headlines will be all about us. Except that instead of criticism for orders being placed before the tests have been evaluated (another **** up waiting to happen from Johnson's government) ours will have been properly scrutinised ready for sales here and around the world.