Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Barclays Smart Investor has dropped off the significant shareholder list becuase they're below the 3% reporting threshold and have been for some time.

I'm not clear on why Horizonte has decided to update the significant shareholder list on the 30th. June given that they last did so on 12th. April. According to AIM Rule 26 they only need to do it every 6 months.

Somebody is clearly feeding the market. In the 11 weeks between 12/04 and 30/06 Hargreaves Lansdown has gone up 10m+, Interactive Investor almost 31m, HSDL 2m+, AJ Bell 2m+. The increase closely corresponds to the 47,754,220 held by Barclays Smart Investor. If that's where the shares have been coming from then they're done. That, however, is simply a guess and probably not a particularly good one since the selling has continued since 30th. June.

TDT

Geng

The usual PI nominee accounts have either stood still or fallen over the last 4 weeks since the previous update. The "Remaining/Other Shareholders" amount, however, is up by 13.5m which is unusual.

13.5m might be down to one or two enthusiastic PIs so it may be nothing. If the trend continues into next month, however, I'd feel more confident in suggesting that somebody is building a position.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/gs7t91u6xh4eyda/Share%20Allocations_Rev_ZG.pdf?dl=0

Its still a bit of a mystery to me why Amur continues to update the significant shareholder figures on their web site every month. AIM Rule 26 only requires it be done at least once every 6 months. I suppose its one way of giving us something to look out for that indicates things are about to pop.

TDT

They could secure an awful lot more if they bought and developed KM.

TDT

"South Korea will drastically increase its strategic stockpiles of nickel, cobalt and other critical metals, in a bid to ensure a stable supply of raw materials vital to key industries including electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy, the government said Thursday."

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210805000737

PS Thanks to soundbuy over on the Horizonte Minerals BB for this one.

Not before time.

TDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/automakers-are-investing-billions-of-dollars-in-evs?srnd=premium-europe

More electric vehicles were sold in the UK in July than diesel cars.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/z5tu4j59qw2xhlu/2021_07.png?dl=0

TDT

You can see the increase in the Remaining Shareholders total over on the right hand side under columns ED and EF, highlighted in red for ease of reference (see below link). This total has gone up in 4 weeks by about 13.5m which is unusual. This figure usually goes up when there is a placing or when a holding drops below the 3% threshold. For an example of the former see columns DN/DP and the latter DV/DX.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/gs7t91u6xh4eyda/Share%20Allocations_Rev_ZG.pdf?dl=0

13.5m is not a lot of shares, its only 1% of the shares in issue and it could easily be just one enthusiastic PI. If the total keeps on going up between now and the next update then its a different matter.

TDT

Don’t know who might be accumulating but most of the main PI nominee accounts have gone down since last month and the “Others” total has gone up by about 13m.

It might be nothing but next month should be interesting if the trend continues.

TDT

The shareholder figures on the web site have been updated. There is some evidence of accumulation.

TDT

Another thought provoking read.

TDT

Key Implications of the Energy, Transportation, and Food Disruptions for Climate Change
1. We can achieve net zero emissions much more quickly than is widely imagined by deploying and scaling the technology we already have.
2. We can achieve net zero emissions without collateral damage to society or the economy.
3. Markets can and must play the dominant role in reducing emissions.
4. Decarbonizing the global economy will not be costly, it will instead save trillions of dollars.
5. A focused approach to reducing emissions is better than an all-of-the-above ‘whack-a-mole’ approach.
6. We no longer need to trade off the environment and the economy against each other.
7. The clean disruption of energy, transportation, and food will narrow rather than widen the gap between wealthy and poor communities, and developed and less-developed countries.
8. The same technologies that allow us to mitigate emissions will also enable us to withdraw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere affordably.
9. Societal choices matter, and technology alone is not enough to achieve net zero emissions.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/6107fd0ed121a02875c1a99f/1627913876225/Rethinking+Implications.pdf

As shown in the table below the IEA forecasts from 2020 to 2040, lithium demand to increase a staggering 13x to 42x, graphite 8x to 25x, cobalt 6x to 21x, nickel 7x to 19x, manganese 3x to 8x, rare earths 3x to 7x, and copper 2x to 3x.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444812-the-iea-forecasts-2020-to-2040-total-demand-increases-of-lithium-13x-to-42x-graphite-8x-to-25x

The below is one helluva long read but its worth it even if you only scim through and taken in the charts.

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/24d5dfbb-a77a-4647-abcc-667867207f74/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf

TDT

It might help if you read the original "Notice of Meeting" issued by Horizonte back in April.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ygcv51al1beiyu2/Horizonte%20-%20Notice-of-meeting-and-management-information-circular.pdf?dl=0

TDT

Hazbeen

Resolution 10 from that meeting might help clarify matters. Section A. part i. of Special Resolution, see below.The resolution clear states "rights issue" and "to ordinary shareholders in proportion (as nearly as may be practicable) to their existing holdings....."

TDT

Special resolutions

10. THAT, subject to and conditional upon the passing of resolution 9, the Directors be and they are hereby empowered pursuant to Section 570 of the Act to allot equity securities (within the meaning of Section 560(1) of the Act) in the capital of the Company for cash pursuant to the authority conferred on them in accordance with Section 551 of the Act by resolution 9 as if Section 561(1) of the Act did not apply to such allotment provided that this power shall be limited:

A. to the allotment of equity securities for cash in connection with an offer of, or invitation to apply for, equity securities (but in the case of the authority granted under paragraph (B) of resolution 9, by way of a rights issue only):

i. to ordinary shareholders in proportion (as nearly as may be practicable) to their existing holdings; and

ii. to holders of other equity securities, as required by the rights of those securities or, as the Directors otherwise considernecessary, and so that the Directors may impose any limits or restrictions and make any arrangements which they consider necessary or appropriate to deal with treasury shares, fractional entitlements, record dates, legal, regulatory or practical problems in, or under the laws of, any territory or any other matter; and

B. to the allotment otherwise than pursuant to paragraph (A) above of equity securities up to an aggregate nominal amount of £5,000,000, and shall expire at the conclusion of the next Annual General Meeting of the Company following the passing of this resolution (or, if earlier, 15 months after the date of this resolution), save that the Company may prior to such expiry make an offer or agreement which would or might require equity securities to be allotted after such expiry and the Directors may allot equity securities in pursuance of such offer or agreement as if the power conferred hereby had not expired, and any director or officer of the Company be, and such director or officer of the Company hereby is authorised, instructed and empowered, acting for, in the name of and on behalf of the Company, to do or to cause to be done all such other acts and things in the opinion of such director or officer of the Company as may be necessary or desirable in order to fulfil the intent of this special resolution.

This is what section 9 of the notice of the annual general meeting of shareholders on May 17th 2021 actually said, see below. It specifically states ".....an offer by way of a rights issue...."

TDT

9. THAT the Directors of the Company be and are hereby generally and unconditionally authorised and empowered in accordance with Section 551 of the Companies Act 2006 (the ‘Act’) to allot shares in the Company and grant rights to subscribe for, or convert any security into shares in the Company (‘Rights’):

A. up to an aggregate nominal amount of £5,000,000 (such amount to be reduced by the nominal amount allotted or granted under paragraph (B) below in excess of such sum); and

B. comprising equity securities (as defined in section 560(1) of the Act) up to an aggregate nominal amount of £10,000,000 (such amount to be reduced by any allotments or grants made under paragraph (A) above) in connection with an offer by way of a rights issue:

i. to ordinary shareholders in proportion (as nearly as may be practicable) to their existing holdings; and
ii. to holders of other equity securities as required by the rights of those securities or as the Directors otherwise consider necessary,

......interesting read, especially this bit.

Potential ESG impact of Tsingshan's plans an issue

We believe that concerns over the potential environmental impact of Tsingshan's NPI/nickel matte production strategy will be a significant headwind to its long-term success, given the EV industry's key role in the wider green revolution of the global economy.

We previously highlighted that the global warming potential from the production of nickel in ferronickel, a higher-grade version of NPI, is 3.5 times higher than that of LME-grade class 1 nickel production. The environmental, social and governance implications of this may deter EV battery producers outside China from using nickel-containing battery-grade products derived from Tsingshan's nickel output.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/profit-margins-key-to-tsingshans-battery-nickel-supply-plans

TDT

What is there that you can point to that makes you think it should be on anybody's radar?

TDT

This is a good read.

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/default/files/documents/raw_materials_and_recycling_roadmap_2.pdf

It gives a good indication of just how complex the whole process can be.

TDT

Henners007

I think that's a bit unfair. They might not have taken the project as far as we would like but there has been progress. There are projects out there that work at $4/lb nickel and others that don't even get a look in at $8/lb nickel. Amur's time will come when the nickel price is right. They started to work up Kun Manie when nickel was on its climb all the way up to $20/lb+. They got caught on the wrong side of the nickel cycle. Its now a case of waiting until the time is right. That's not something Amur can do an awful lot about. They can drill more. That can re-evaluate what processing route to go down, the OP/UG options, various novel forms of finance or partnerships or off takes but in reality the big one and the one that we all understand is the price of nickel. If it needs to be $10/lb+ or $12/lb+ or even higher then so be it.

Of course the price of nickel might never get there but that's the chance we take.

TDT

Henners007

".....one of the chaps on that BoD also sits on the AMC BoD."

Brian Savage resigned quite some time ago.

Frontier mining was a different kettle of fish to Amur. Frontier ws a classic example of what happens in a depressed market where you skimp on your pilot plant and testwork.

TDT

Slurms

Each of Horizonte's shares has a nominal value of £0.01 or essentially 1p each. Resolution 9 therefore allows the BOD to issue a further 1B shares. You are reading it correctly.

TDT

wasarunner

Sorry to sound like a bit of a smart arze here but I think you've neglected to mention the principal reason why somebody would pay over the prevailing share price. If a major wants to secure a significant holding in a company they have two ways to do it, either in the open market or via a fund raise. Buying a significant number of shares in the open market means declaring when you cross percentile boundaries, which attracts attention from retail investors and will push the price up. There is also the inevitable upward pressure that comes from a party buying a significant number of free float shares. Then there is the other option which is you pay a premium over the prevailing share price to secure a significant stake.

The company will know what options are available to somebody wanting secure a significant position and they will play that to their advantage. I agree with your conclusion that the forthcoming fund raise will be at a higher figure than the current share price. I doubt a major would have a problem paying a premium to secure a significant position in Horizonte. The only thing I don't agree with is the figure you quote. I expect it to be higher than 7p, in fact I expect it to be an awful lot higher. A $100m for what would amount to over a third of the shares in issue (you say 1bn additional shares, would that not trigger a formal offer for the whole company?) would be a steal.

Horizonte is in the driving seat.

TDT