Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Ibizamatrix1998

LME stocks are currently just over 202,000 tonnes. Stocks seem to be declining, on average, at 15,000 to 20,000 tonnes every 30 days or so. You can get some idea of stock to price levels and the way they correlate here:-

https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=diagram&field=LME_Ni_cash

It's not a perfect fit but there is clear evidence that the lower the stock levels go the higher the price.

If only it were that simple.

TDT

......this is let off the leash its going to run and its going to run far and fast. It may experience a fairly big re-trace along the way as it stops to catch its breath but it will recover quickly and take off again.

Exciting times ahead.

TDT

JB, Sasa, lse1111

Appreciated. Thanks.

TDT

Seagull4Trawler

Take it elsewhere mate. This is the Amur BB.

TDT

MD

I suspect its hope over expectation that driving the 6 upticks.

I stand to be corrected.

TDT

Unwelcome but predictable.

TDT

Phoenix11

I don't see where I said that!

Care to put a little bit of flesh on the bones of what your strategy is and why you think Red Rock is a good investment?

TDT

Q3 or Q4 doesn't alter the fact that when it does happen we will all be an awful lot better off than we are now. It's just a case of waiting and trying not to get too impatient if it doesn't happen Q3.

TDT

These are the bits that, IMO, indicate what's likely to happen.

"Cornerstone strategic investor and final off-take agreements well advanced and expected to be finalised shortly after credit approvals."

"Financing discussions remain on track. Credit committee approval for the senior debt facility expected in Q3 2021 as previously announced."

Credit committee approval first followed by cornerstone investor and off-take agreements. All tied up within the next 7 weeks? Both are only expected in Q3 2021. That may be the only language they can use but you would have thought, with less than 7 weeks until the end of Q3, they'd give a more firm commitment than "expected".

Track record, the language used in the RNS and the current lack lustre performance of the share price and you wouldn't be surprised to see this dribble on into Q4. I hope it doesn't.

TDT

"I have been invested here for last 9 months I have seen many posts by you."

And you're still invested?

TDT

" Lets suppose that 10k of cobalt in the ground is only worth 1% of market value."

Why don't we suppose, as I suggested, a fraction of 1% and not the full 1% you have assumed. I didn't specify what fraction so you can take it as read that your assumption of $5,434,000 is far greater than I'm thinking. Try knocking the two zeros off the end of that figure and you might be an awful lot closer to where that figure should be. IMO even then that's probably being a tad optimistic.

TDT

It’s interesting looking at stock levels in the LME and the price of nickel because there doesn’t appear to be much if any correlation between the two. I take that to be because LME stock levels represent class 1 nickel only where as the nickel price is driven by the whole nickel market.

Class 1 nickel is only about 35% of the whole nickel market so it’s very much the junior partner in the equation. The proportion of LME stock to the class 1 market is interesting as well being about 25%. When you compare the other base metal stock levels in the LME to market size it shows nickel out on its own. Copper for example, annual consumption, approx. 26m tonnes, LME stock levels 230,000 tonnes. Stock levels similar to nickel in a market 10 times larger, 30 times larger if you only consider class 1 nickel.

TDT

34kt

TDT

"10k tonnes of cobalt at Luanshimba is worth in today's market"

In the ground in DRC? Probably worth a fraction of 1% of the actual value of 10k tonnes.

"If we add in the possibility of copper deeper down...."

Nothing. It's just a possibility in the same way that hundreds, if not thousands, of AIM listed junior miners have possibilities.

A deposit to JORC, NI43-101 or SAMREC is one thing. A possibility is nothing better than a fart in a hurricane and Red Rock has been farting into the hurricane for years. Nothing here has changed no matter how you present it.

TDT

"What is it with people who lost money that they think it makes them an expert?"

I don't think anybody thinks you are an expert Heplful.

TDT

"In the meantime, regardless of what the experts on here think,......"

Irony is lost on you Helpful.

TDT

DizzyJim

I'm assuming the nominee accounts are essentially PI shares. That doesn't mean to say all the shares in these nominee accounts are PIs. You can't tell if any of the shares in these accounts are held by IIs from the list updated every month by Amur.

djia

The shifting of shares between June and July into Interactive Investor could be as you suggest. I'm more interested in the movements in shares between July and August. The increase in the "Remaining holders" total, has come from 4 nominee accounts, the majority coming from Hargreaves Landsdown and not Interactive Investor. That, to my mind, suggests its not former EQI shares being redistributed. The whole thing is fairly opaque and its just a guess on my part which is just as likely to be completely wrong as not.

It was, as you say, a decent week which hopefully will continue into next.

TDT

Probably another 3 to 4 months until this drops back down to where it was before the current bout of irrational exuberance took hold.

Then comes the pump before the next placing courtesy of some wonga outfit.

TDT

Slurms/Picked

Agreed.

TDT

Barclays Smart Investor has dropped off the significant shareholder list becuase they're below the 3% reporting threshold and have been for some time.

I'm not clear on why Horizonte has decided to update the significant shareholder list on the 30th. June given that they last did so on 12th. April. According to AIM Rule 26 they only need to do it every 6 months.

Somebody is clearly feeding the market. In the 11 weeks between 12/04 and 30/06 Hargreaves Lansdown has gone up 10m+, Interactive Investor almost 31m, HSDL 2m+, AJ Bell 2m+. The increase closely corresponds to the 47,754,220 held by Barclays Smart Investor. If that's where the shares have been coming from then they're done. That, however, is simply a guess and probably not a particularly good one since the selling has continued since 30th. June.

TDT