Member Info for TrickyDicky2

mjb606

You need to adjust your nickel price to take into account the discount NPI sell for to the LME Class 1 price which seems to bounce between 7.5% to 10%. I make the current MC to NPV for Araguaia phase 1 closer to 20%. Still a fairly hefty discount considering where the project is in the development time line. I'd expect that to move to a 30% to 40% discount on breaking ground.

TDT

JB

It’s not just Amur. The recent run up in the price of nickel has done nothing for Horizonte either and it’s not reasonable to expect it to. When you’re producing nickel and selling it into the market the price is relevant. Until you are it’s all about de-risking your project. That’s what’s going to drive the share price in the short term.

TDT

Astar

Pick what you think might be the better year to sell a nickel asset from the list below.

Oct. 2021 - nickel price - $9/lb.
Oct. 2020 - nickel price - $8/lb.
Oct. 2019 - nickel price - $7/lb.
Oct. 2018 - nickel price - $6/lb.
Oct. 2017 - nickel price - $5/lb.

Overly simplified I know but I’m sure you get the point.

TDT

......this were true.

14-Oct-21 17:53:42 194.80 633,343 Buy* 2.005 2.145 1m

They put the decimal point in the wrong place. Or have they? ;-)

TDT

.....or it might just be a sell. I've just been offered 2.075p to sell 1m.

I wonder if we are looking at an RNS on Monday?

TDT

Hammer11

Theres your answer to the 1,000,000 question. Somebody just bought at 2p.

TDT

Stu_1978

Likewise for 1.5m.

Assuming Halifax us a different MM it looks like there's a bit of buying pressure at the moment and not just a balancing of the books with the MM ii go through.

The spotlight is back on nickel now that its over $9/lb. so that might be drawing a few more people in.

TDT

11:37:36 hrs. at 8.29p - 926,626 shares - £76,8200.

It says it was a buy but more like a sell given the spread at the time it was executed. Same old same old. Any time it looks like we're going to build a head of steam a seller keeps knocking the share price back down.

TDT

PippiLongStockin

"Although if the silvers there and they are verifying it......"

That first part of your post is the stumbling block. First off they'll need a shed load of money to prove up the size, grade and continuity of any deposit to either JORC or NI43-101. Once they've secured the funds to do that they then need to get lucky and actually find something that's economic. Sit back and relax becuase both are a long way off.

Best bet here for anybody trapped in this share is wait for the inevitable pre-fund raise pump then bail out on or near the peak. Whether you come back in once the placing has been done and the share price has dribbled back down is up to you.

TDT

Hammer11

If you’re that curious you can do it yourself.

TDT

This is a slightly onger version of the link RL posted recently. It's well worth the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLWmVDtVZ0&t=1906s

TDT

This is well worth the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLWmVDtVZ0&t=1906s

TDT

Hi Astar

I'm with Interactive Investor.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/9t4ade1dndpfu1x/1M%20Sell%20-%20Amur.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/o5blvu5rxqb8la9/20k%20Buy%20-%20Amur.png?dl=0

TDT

I've been offered 1.9792p for 1,000,000 but can't even get a live quote for 20,000.

TDT

You can get a live quote to sell 500k at the moment but not buy, not even a small quantity. Anybody else noticed that this morning?

Nickel up above $9/lb again, currently $9.04/lb. Its the getting up and staying up that's the problem.

TDT

Twitter is a very dangerous place. Without knowing how much its going to cost to mine and refine you can't put any value on it. It could range anywhere between zero and a fraction of the current spot price. The current spot price is around US$23/oz. So its worth anywhere from zero to a fraction of US$185m.

As for there being 8moz., says who?

The current MC, given just how inept management has shown itself to be at developing/ monetising anything, seems about right.

TDT

Ooooops.

TDT

I tried putting a follow up post on the BB a couple of hours ago with the below link but it hasn't appeared. If it subsequently does appear than apologises for the duplication.

This article is over 9 months old now but I think it still very relevant given the current discussion.

https://www.mining.com/all-the-mines-tesla-needs-to-build-20-million-cars-a-year/

BEV and PHEV uptake will reach 6.5m to 7.0m units this year. If Ark Invest are even remotely close with their 80% CAGR assessment going forward then 2023/24 for a nickel supply crunch is very much on the cards.

TDT

A bit old now but worth a re-read given the current discussion.

https://www.mining.com/all-the-mines-tesla-needs-to-build-20-million-cars-a-year/

The issues for Tesla and all the OEMs haven’t gone away since this article was first written. If anything they’ve become far more acute.

BEV and PHEV figures should top out at around 6.5m to 7m for 2021. If Ark Invest is correct in their assessment, barring another black swan event, we should see a CAGR of 80%. All the predictions of a supply side crunch, if correct, will make KM extremely attractive.

TDT

JD

Good question.

For a deal to happen you need both a willing buyer and a willing seller. I suspect Rover62 is partly right but I also think it doesn’t really suit Amur to sell KM at the moment.

Tidy up the outstanding TEO issues first. Once that’s done it’s a case of picking your moment. I’d like to see the nickel price up at $25,000/tonne before they announce they’re in talks to sell KM. If you know your market is on the up there should be no rush to sell.

TDT