Member Info for TrickyDicky2

"We are forecasting consumption of nickel to more than double from 2.4-million tonnes in 2020 to 4.9-million tonnes in 2040,” said Durrant."

That would require SS to grow at an average CAGR of around 1% to 2% and EV growth to have an average CAGR of about 10% to 15% for nickel to double by 2040. I think this analyst needs to get out more. Nickel consumption is on track to double from 2020 figures of 2.4m tonnes by 2030.

TDT

Record number of BEVs and PHEVs sold in the UK in September. 46,605.

TDT

Hi RL

That’s are fair old reading list to get through. It may take me a bit of time to go through it all but I’ll come back to you with comments, if any, once I have.

As ever, thanks for making the effort and taking the time, much appreciated.

TDT

The FT is a bit behind the curve but worth a read anyway.

https://www.ft.com/content/fb4d1d64-5d90-4e27-b77f-6e221bc02696

TDT

"Exited all of its fluorspar projects....." Really? When did they announce that?

TDT

Also the options total has dropped by 12,809,630 shares as has the fully diluted total. It looks like Adam Habib has lost at least the first of his options. The second appears to still be in play.

2020 Annual Accounts.

"On the 13 February 2020, the Company appointed Mr. Adam Habib as Advisor to the Board. As part of his appointment, Mr. Habib was granted 12,809,630 options with an exercise price of 1.95 pence per share, with a further 12,809,630 options subject to the successful completion by the Company of a non-binding off-take agreement, for the completion of a producing asset investment."

"On the 3 April 2020, the Company made a grant of 30,000,000 options with an exercise price of 1.75 pence per ordinary share to Directors, executives and employees. As at 31 December 2020, the Company has 55,619,260 options outstanding."

TDT

Luke2

That's a very interesting article with a really clear description of where the nickel market appears to be heading. With Vermelho still being a few years down the road this will have plenty of time to germinate:-

"This concept is being heavily promoted in Canada, Australia and Indonesia as an integrated supply chain from mine to precursor/cathode."

By the middle of the decade that should/could read:-

"For example, cathode plants like BASF and Umicore are building their plants adjacent to MHP producers and they’ll take solution right across the fence and make cathode-active material directly from that to save on shipping costs. This concept is being heavily promoted in Canada, Australia, Indonesia and Brazil as an integrated supply chain from mine to precursor/cathode."

TDT

And this:-

"Additionally, two companies with major nickel sulphide projects recently announced that they are going to pursue or produce MHP. The first one is a company in Australia called Blackstone Minerals, which has a nickel sulphide mine in Vietnam. The other is Giga Metals, which has an advanced nickel sulphide project in Canada and has announced that, instead of making concentrate, it will make MHP."

"The rapidly rising dominance of MHP makes their change of direction an obvious choice. This is particularly so because making MHP from sulphide or sulphide concentrate is much simpler, and therefore less costly, than making it from laterites, thus giving sulphide deposits an advantage in the race to cash in on MHP’s rising importance."

RL has highlighted these developments in some of his recent posts. Interesting to see an assessment of the relative potential of the various different processing options/routes for sulphide/laterite ores in one article. It's also interesting to see that sulphide still comes out on top once all the variables and options are considered.

I wonder if this goes some way to explaining RY seemingly dragging his feet? The nickel market doesn't stand still.

TDT

Thanks to Luke2 over on the HZM BB. This bit is of particular relevance to Amur.

"According to research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, there is a general consensus that about 200,000 tonnes of nickel went into battery precursors for rechargeable batteries last year and the expectation this year is that this will increase to as much as 300,000 tonnes, which is close to the availability of Class I briquettes and powder."

https://www.mining.com/mixed-hydroxide-precipitate-the-new-class-one-nickel/

TDT

The "Remaining Shareholders/Other Share Holders total up again, this time by just under 15m. The main PI nominee accounts, apart from Lawshare and HSBC are all down, interative Investor by 10m. Since July 2021 the "Remaining Shareholders/Other Share Holders" total is up by over 32,258,443 or 2.38% of the shares in issue.

IMO its a 50/50 at the moment as to whether somebody is accumulating.

TDT

.....going big on plug-ins.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/01/sweden-legacy-vehicles-left-in-the-dust-as-plugin-evs-overtake-accelerate-ahead/

Wood Mackenzie are predicting 6m EVs for 2021. I think it looks more like 7m. If you then add into the mix Ark Invest's prediction of CAGR of 80% going forward it going to be one helluva ride these next few years.

TDT

RL

RY is playing for time or at least that's how it seems to me.

When he came on board at Amur back in 2006 the nickel price was $30,000/tonne and heading off to the stars. That didn't last long. The intervening years have been dire. You either throw the towel in, hunker down or continue to prove up and expand the asset.

He's not going to take trying to increase the size of the resource or improve grades option further so the only variable left is the price of nickel. Its hunker down time until that does us a favour.

TDT

sasa43

Echo that re Luke2's 10.09hrs. post.

When characters with Beard's background start moving into the green sector you know there's an unstoppable transition happening. You either get on board or you get left behind with a load of stranded assets.

The one thing from this article that I'd like to see clarified is this.

"Beard said Adaptogen’s 500 MW of storage will use lithium-ion battery technology."

Which lithium-ion technology? Likewise with EVs. How many are running around on LFP batteries as opposed to the nickel rich lithium-ion alternative. That's a difficult one to estimate.

I guess its back to tracking the rate at which nickel leaves the LME!

TDT

sasa43

Solar panels on your roof plus a battery in your garage will go some way to solving the power cut issue.

TDT

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/horizonte-secures-346m-for-brazil-ferro-nickel-project-2021-10-01

TDT

"Getting ready for a large PUMP and DUMP exercise!"

What! You're going to do that all on your own CHEATED?

TDT

"Oreall results are based on the cumulative exploration information and comprehensive technical reports on mining, processing, metallurgical recoveries, engineering, intermediate product generation of both nickel and copper concentrates, environmental setting, transport and non-binding offtake agreements specific to the Kun-Manie mineralisation. Moscow based Oreall has compiled Russian based project specific operating and capital cost estimates using a team of industry recognised specialists / experts. Oreall has concluded and states that Kun-Manie is ready for industrial development."

"Submission of the independently compiled Permanent Conditions TEO in now complete. Going forward, the process will include a series of meetings between our team and the experts of various disciplines representing the GKZ. These are best viewed as negotiations, modifications and updates to the report. There is a calendar to completion of the work which is presently being finalised by the GKZ representative appointed to our Kun-Manie project. We shall revert once the schedule and key decision points are established."

It's probably best reading the RNSs rather than this bulletin board for a update on who is doing what, their qualifications and whether or not milestone dates have been released.

TDT

Been out all day so just catching up on this thread.

riptonk

"You've got your news but you wanted more news."

Not quite. I wanted the finance news that JM said would be delivered in one package. That's not what happened today. Given the speculation on this BB about the equity raise/corner stone investor I think most were expecting that to be confirmed in this RNS. Its the extent of any future dilution that's holding the share price back.

"Your first two sentences work against one another."

No idea what that means but hey ho.

The one positive that does come out of today's RNS is the terms. You measure terms like these against the quality of the project. No complaints there. The closing of the facility still needs to be concluded so not over the line just yet but close. As for the off-take and corner stone investor the banks being on board puts JM in the driving seat I guess. Upon reflection not tying down the off-take and corner stone until the banks were behind him wasn't such a bad move.

I was never very good at chess.

TDT

DizzyJim

"The market and smart money don’t believe, but they often don’t until they do."

Very true.

TDT

riptonk

What the current RNS is about and what the next RNS will be about isn't the issue. The issue is what was expected and what's been delivered. This RNS more or less confirms what was already known but more significantly it gets JM off the "news on funding before the end of the 3rd. Q" hook. It's not, however, what most thought it would be.

So, the clock has been re-set. Off-take and strategic investor to be concluded "in the coming months." It's not until the extent of any dilution is known that the brakes will come off the share price.

No drop dead by date this time for these to issues to be concluded. I guess JM has learned his lesson.

TDT