Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Thanks to soundbuy and dyryan777 over on the Horizonte BB.

https://twitter.com/humenm/status/1452934504348274689

https://www.ft.com/content/0de9153b-dfa3-41c8-9714-ab66d359854c?accessToken=zwAAAXy8Rpngkc8N6RU736NByNOXFKtm01mFTA.MEUCIGwlqAb5P25FI4Qtc90Dyn9_psaqJDsdurngRb6UcqcGAiEAp_fD81OnQ65zT5A7JU26D5VeR7fAu8IESO8BBiJZ2-I&sharetype=gift?token=2649ab15-44d1-4272-bd4e-f16433547895

TDT

It looks like its a 300 series austenitic stainless steel.

https://www.worldautosteel.org/why-steel/steel-muscle-in-new-vehicles/tesla-cybertruck/

The nickel content could be anywhere between 8% and 14%.

https://www.penflex.com/differences-between-300-series-stainless-steels/

They're saying they've developed their own stainless steel grade so the percentage of nickel could be more, it could be less.

TDT

Luke2

Another interesting find. Thanks for posting.

This seems to suggest tightness in the NPI price is likely to continue over into 1st. Q next year.

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101630941/severe-supply-tightness-of-npi-sent-nickel-prices-to-record-high

I'm not sure I understand what they're trying to say here though and how it will impact things..

"The downstream buyers are expected to increase the proportion of pure nickel, stabilising nickel prices at low levels. Whether nickel prices can return to a high level may depend on whether the excess nickel sulphate will lead to the reduction of production using dissolved nickel briquette."

That sounds to me like they're suggesting the tightness in the NPI market can be addressed by the surplus in nickel sulphate production by re-directing nickel briquettes. I can't see that happening.

TDT

Luke2

That's interesting. I guess that's Tesla looking to do similar with the car body as they've done with LFP batteries, try to find a solution with an acceptable formance at a good price.

There are five manin types of stainless steel; austenitic, martensitic, ferritic, duplex, and precipitation hardened. Within these basic types you'll find different grades. Each type and grade has different quantities of nickel. Some have no nickel. The principal requirements for the stainless steel body of a Tesla cybertruck, I'd guess; strength, corrosion resistance, ease of welding, as well as price.

The automotive industry mainly uses austenitic series 200 stainless steel which is a high chromium, manganese low nickel material. Cars do not usually have stainless steel bodies so whether Telsa will opt for 200 series or, as the article suggests, come up with something they've developed themselves remains to be seen.

TDT

Ain't no sotpping them now ;-)

TDT

"Tesla breaks $1tn valuation barrier after Hertz orders 100,000 vehicles"

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/oct/25/tesla-model-3-is-first-battery-electric-car-to-top-europe-monthly-sales-chart

Sibanye-Stillwater in talks to buy Santa Rita.

"Globally, mining majors are racing to increase their exposure to metals key to a low-carbon future."

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/sibanye-stillwater-in-talks-to-buy-brazil-nickel-and-copper-assets-2021-10-25

Come Robin, Tom get out there with the "For Sale" sign.

TDT

Hazbeen

"did not understand why 20k-30k plant have been more successful "

I'm not sure anybody knows why. The only thing that is clear is the bigger projects have struggled more than the smaller. It seems Horizonte has taken on board that lesson and sized Vermelho accordingly.

If its the limonite they're going to target at Vermelho they don't have too many options other than HPAL. It all boils down to the ore and which process is the most suitable.

"The higher nickel content saprolites tend to be commercially treated by a pyro metallurgical process involving roasting and electrical smelting techniques to produce ferro nickel. The power requirements and high iron to nickel ore ratio for the lower nickel content limonite and limonite/saprolite blends make this processing route too expensive, and these ores are normally commercially treated by a hydrometallurgical process such as the High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) process or combination of pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processe such as the Caron reduction roast - ammonium carbonate leach process. Other hydrometallurgical acid leaching techniques have been developed to exploit nickeliferous oxidic ore in the past decade apart from conventional high pressure acid leach (HPAL)."

They've said HPAL so I guess they're going down that route for a good reason.

TDT

That should have been 20 minutes 10 seconds in where Angela Durrant says, despite the nickel price being at $18,000 to $19,000 she is "....not seeing banks put their hands in their pockets to finance new projects" Well they have for Araguaia. That must say something about the quality of the project.

For anybody wondering about this:-

https://www.theassay.com/articles/investor-insight/the-great-laterite-challenge-why-scaling-class-1-nickel-production-wont-be-easy-cheap-or-environmentally-friendly/

The key takeaway from this article, for me, is the reference to HPAL projects in the 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes pa range being problematic whereas the 20,000 - 30,000 tonne pa sized HPAL projects being far more successful. Vermelho is scheduled to be 25,000 tonne pa.

TDT

Posting something you can't verify but which confirms your narrative is your stock in trade Helpful.

TDT

mesb48

Interesting, in particular the comment at the end (20 minutes 48 seconds in). Thanks for posting.

This, also from "The Assay", is worth taking in.

https://www.theassay.com/articles/investor-insight/the-great-laterite-challenge-why-scaling-class-1-nickel-production-wont-be-easy-cheap-or-environmentally-friendly/

TDT

Luke 2

Sibanye would be buying a producing nickel sulphide mine at Santa Rita giving immediate exposure to the battery/EV market..

The current shortage of suitable nickel will have a whole series of unintended consequences I should think.

TDT

"Copper is the new toilet paper, hoarding is one reason LME inventories at 47-year low"

It makes a good headline Helpful but its simply not true. Copper inventories in the LME were lower in 2008. In fact they were lower than they are now as recently as May 2021.

TDT

Hi fpvone

I’ve taken in quite a few Sandy Monroe videos of Tesla tear downs. Very experienced and switched on he doesn’t pull his punches.

TDT

Helps explain things.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/teslas-move-to-lfp-shows-a-worrying-ev-trend-were-running-out-of-cells-172429.html

TDT

I think this article sums things up quite neatly.

"This cell restriction explains Tesla moving to LFP cells for all entry-level derivatives of the Model 3 and Model Y. What started as a test in Shanghai became the norm not only because these batteries proved to be suitable for Tesla or cheaper and more robust. The real advantage they brought to the company was sparing ternary cells for more expensive vehicles. Moravy said the first new vehicle to be presented will be the Cybertruck."

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/teslas-move-to-lfp-shows-a-worrying-ev-trend-were-running-out-of-cells-172429.html

The spotlight must fall on Kun Manie eventually.

TDT

Agreed.

TDT

fpvone

So you've watched "The Limitting Factor" video on th relative merit of LFP-vs-NCM? For anybody who hasn't seen it yet:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdZL8RF3thI

TDT

fpvone

The move into LFP by Tesla and various OEMs makes an awful lot of sense. There's simply not enough nickel to satisfy the rapidly emerging market for EVs so something had to give. Another spike similar to 2007 does nobody any good.

Nickel rich batteries will still be in demand but the areas where their properties are best suited will not be the low end of the market. Tesla's supply deal with BHP and their involvement in Goro suggests to me a long term committment to nickel rich batteries.

This is a move that investors in Horizonte should applaud. An insane spike in the price of nickel now would simply result in the same reaction we saw back in 2007/8 the effects of which cut across both class1/2 as well as laterite/sulphide. Nickel would get thrifted out of batteries altogether and the market for stainless steel would move from series 300 to 200 in the same way that demand for series 300 moved from 316 to 304 during the last spike.

Slow and steady wins the race.

TDT

That's so typically you jedster74, forever the optimist.

TDT ;-)

The poor sound quality and therefore lack of clarity makes it easy for Bell to claim he didn't say what you thought he said. Plausible deniability from the least plausible CEO on AIM.

TDT