Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Sodium ion, solid state, hydrogen, they all make good headlines. The problem is all these "in development" alternatives to the current options that dominate the market are a long way from, first, being technically viable and second being commercially viable.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/01/17/catl-warns-on-solid-state-batteries-sees-supply-shortfall-ahead/

Its lithium ion for quite some time to come either with cobalt and/or nickel (NCA, NMC, LCO, LNMO) or without (LFP, LMO).

TDT

HI CBS

I can't say this for sure but the possible negative impact from Chinese New Year holiday (only 5 days or so and yearly) and the Winter Olympics (2 weeks in total and a one off) will be more than off-set by Indonesia considering banning the export of nickel ore and nickel intermediates. With the Philippines considering following Indonesia's example it seems the downside pressure from any softening in demand from China will be absorbed by tightening supply from the principal producers. All guesswork on my part but it makes sense in my world.

If it all kicks off in Ukraine all bets are off.

TDT

I've been reading recently that the nickel market was in the process of coming off the boil and the reduced daily draw down of nickel from the LME these past couple of weeks seems to confirm that. Today, however, 2,166 tonnes left the exchange. That's the highest daily drawn down for several weeks. As of yesterday there was 97,000 tonnes in the exchange. Todays drawn, 2.23% of the total, leaves less than 94,900 tonnes. At a similar draw down rate that's about 44 days supply.

Whether this has any impact on Amur remains to be seen. Knowing our luck the exchange will empty on the day it all kicks off in the Ukraine.

TDT

At least they're coming clean on the reasons and not trying to blame poor production on covid. Honesty is reassuring and should go some way to restoring confidnece in the management/company.

It looks like 2022 is going to be more about putting their house in order than anything else.

TDT

If this is true it will encourage China to look far and wide to find replacement supplies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7wVK5xSOF4

Probably helps explain the growing adoption of LFP batteries in Chinese made EVs for the domestic market.

TDT

Its not nickel sulphide its nickel sulphate.

Nickel sulphide is the ore that 40% of the worlds nickel comes from. The other 60% comes from nickel laterite ores. Tsingshan is trying to produce nickel sulphate from nickel lateritre ore first by NPI then to a nickel matte. Its the conversion from a nickel matte to a nickel sulphate that's the problem.

TDT

"There are only so many shares that can be picked up between 1.6 and 1.8"

Very true. The problem with this share, however, is the amount of time a lot of people have been in it and the inevitable investor fatgue that comes from being a LTH or, in some instances, a VLTH. People bail out sooner than they might otherwise in a share like this once/if the price starts to move north and that's a shame becuase those who deserve to profit the most are likely to end up pocketing the least.

I don't think there is going to be a shortage of available shares in the 2p, 3p, 4p range. If somebody is accumulating I can see them picking up quite a large chunk of this company for a very modest outlay. So far they've acquired close to 60m shares or just over 4.2% of the shares in issue for, IMO, a good bit less than £1m. They clearly know what they're doing and they've been patient but I suspect time may be against them given the immanent approval of the TEO and, more importantly, likely developments in the nickel space. So far the stellar rise in the price of nickel has not been reflected in companies like Amur (or Horizonte for that matter) but that has to change.

The sentiment switch you mention will benifit new investors. Existing investors, however, will need to take a deep breath and shake off the disappointment of the last 5 years (LTH), 10 years (VLTH), 15years (VVLTH) and focus on the future. The past is the past. The profit is in the future and that, obviously, is still to come.

TDT

"tricydicky don't you mean years"

No.

TDT

MD

I very much get the impression, from listening to the 24/11/2021 interview again, that the timescale for the approval of the TEO, at present, is open ended. Robin states quite clearly in the interview that the process is a back and forward one. In a situation like that it will depend on how complete and thorough the initial submission has been as to how long the process might take.

That's probably not what you, or anybody for that matter, wants to hear but I suspect that's about as close to the truth as you're going to get. The upside being it could just as likely be this coming Monday as it could be several months from now.

TDT

Thanks to Mullins58 ober on the Horizonte board.

https://www.mining.com/ranked-top-20-evs-of-2021-costs-jump-as-lithium-cobalt-nickel-prices-surge/

An excellent article which helps put the current situation with LFP batteries into perspective.

TDT

Although they could have checked the current stay of play regarding finance.

TDT

We're in good company.

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/three-nickel-shares-for-the-electric-vehicle-boom/

TDT

It looks to me like our mystery buyer is still accumulating. If the accumulation continues at the same pace for the remainder of this month they'll be up by another 6m to 8m at the next update.

TDT

MD

Likewise, none intended or taken.

ATB
TDT

MD

I get that, trust me, I really do. Kicking the dog for refusing to bark, however, seems a bit unfair.

I'm as keen as the next person to see this one do what we all think it is capable of doing. But as I tried to highlight the other day its not just Amur that's wallowing in the doldrum during what we are told is the start of a commodities super cycle. Horizonte displays the same lacklustre performance and indifference to the goings on in the wider market. Look at what they have then go figure.

I'm not sure there is much else we can do at this stage except extract the urine our of the BOD but it does, on occasions, seem a bit undeserved.

TDT

Make public the TEO in January 2020 when nickel was half the price it is now and stocks in the LME twice as high as they are now or release it now?

Monday 14th. January 2020 - Nickel price $11,420/tonne.

Monday 14th. January 2020 - LME nickel stocks 199,542 tonnes.

We are in a far better position now than we would have been back then had Amur stuck to the original timetable. Its still no guarantee of anything but at least the environment for nickel now is a lot healthier than it was back then.

TDT

https://www.ft.com/content/a3a46090-7d8c-4416-9362-37021f97c67d

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/industrial-metals-rise-dollar-drops-after-powell-testimony-2022-01-12/

TDT

BobTpt

I don't remember hearing anything like that. Can you recall where that came from?

TDT

CBS

I think it was around the time of the 1st. June 2009 RNS.

TDT

Astar

You're right, it wasn't 2.0p it was closer to 3.0p. Having said that there was only 150m+ shares in issue at the time.

In this instance it's not the share price that's relevant but the market cap.

TDT